EllTec Analysis

Macro dashboard

The macro drivers behind every EllTec Analysis report in one place: interest rates, inflation, growth and the labour market, housing and consumers, liquidity and credit, government finances, currencies, energy, commodities, Europe, Japan and China and market sentiment, worldwide and for every region. Updated automatically several times a day. Choose a region for its own charts, an automatic check of what the data means for its stock market and a weekly analysis.

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Share prices do not move in a vacuum. Behind them are the big economic forces: how expensive money is (interest rates), how fast prices rise (inflation), whether the economy is growing, how much money is in the system (liquidity) and how investors feel (sentiment). Together these factors are called macroeconomics, or macro for short.

When interest rates rise, for example, loans get more expensive, companies earn less and investors often prefer safe bonds over stocks or crypto. When rates fall, it is often the other way round. That is why EllTec Analysis looks at this backdrop before every analysis: an Elliott Wave count says where a market could go, the macro environment shows whether it has a tailwind or a headwind.

You do not need prior knowledge. Each chart has a short description and an explanation button that tells you in plain words what it shows, what it can signal and which assets it affects.

Interest rates: the price of money. Set by central banks, and by the bond market for longer maturities.
Inflation: how quickly life gets more expensive. Central banks aim for 2% per year.
Economy and labour market: is the economy growing, are jobs being created, are people spending?
Housing and consumers: building, house prices, saving and consumer credit: how much room households have to spend.
Liquidity and credit: how much money is flowing through the financial system and how easily banks lend. More money often lifts asset prices.
Government finances: US debt, interest costs and the budget deficit, which drive bond supply and long-term rates.
Currencies, energy and commodities: the US dollar, major exchange rates and the prices of oil, gas, metals and agricultural goods.
Europe: inflation, growth, jobs and trade in Germany and the euro area, yield spreads of Italy and France, the UK and Switzerland.
Japan, China and the world: rates and the central bank in Japan, trade and reserves of China, global commodity prices and emerging market currencies.
Asia-Pacific, the Americas, Africa and the Middle East: interest rates, growth, jobs, trade, house prices and currencies of South Korea, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, South Africa, Morocco, Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Market sentiment: how fearful or greedy investors currently are.

How to use the charts

The big number is the latest value. Below it you see the change over 1 month and 1 year.
With the buttons 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y and Max you choose the time range. Long ranges show how unusual today's level is in history.
Move the mouse over a chart (or tap it on your phone) to see the exact date and value.
A dashed line marks an important level, for example the 2% inflation target or zero.

Weekly Market Briefing · Oct 26, 2026

Market Briefing · Week 44, 2026

Every Monday: first the macro outlook for the world and seven regions, then the most important moves in equities, bonds, currencies, commodities and crypto over the past week, the top and flop performers and the dates to watch in the week ahead.

1. Macro outlook

Oil near 116 dollars and 10-year yield at 5% keep markets on edge

Region	EllTec Analysis view on equities	Automatic macro check	Fear & Greed	What it means for equities
Global	–	0	44 Fear	Oil near 116 dollars and 10-year yield at 5% keep markets on edge
USA	Neutral	+27	48 Neutral	The automatic check reads bullish (score 27), supported by solid growth, low jobless claims and loose financial conditions. EllTec Analysis keeps the view neutral because the Fed has hiked again and a 10-year yield near 5% weighs on highly valued growth stocks. Energy producers and banks benefit from expensive oil and higher rates, while housing, autos and consumer discretionary suffer. A pause with a softer tone or falling oil prices would improve the view, while a December hike signal together with weaker jobs data would worsen it.
Germany	Bearish	-25	40 Fear	The automatic check is bearish (score minus 25), and EllTec Analysis agrees. The ECB deposit rate of 2.50%, Bund yields near 3.5% and European gas prices more than double last year's level hit energy-intensive industry hardest. Chemicals, steel and other energy-hungry sectors suffer most, while banks and insurers gain from higher rates and exporters from the weaker euro. Lower energy prices or a clear pause signal from the ECB would improve the outlook.
Europe	Neutral	-10	27 Fear	The automatic check is neutral (score minus 10), and EllTec Analysis agrees. Moderate core inflation of 2.5% and euro area growth of 1.2% support earnings, but higher rates and expensive gas weigh on valuations and industry. Energy producers, banks and insurers benefit, while chemicals, real estate and energy-intensive manufacturers suffer. Falling gas prices would improve the view, a new energy spike or a wider French yield spread would worsen it.
Asia	Neutral	+17	41 Fear	The automatic check is neutral (score 17): booming exports and a stronger yuan are offset by rising rates in Japan and South Korea and oil at 115 dollars. EllTec Analysis keeps the view neutral. Chipmakers and technology exporters in Taiwan, South Korea and China benefit from strong demand, while energy importers such as India and Japan suffer from expensive oil, LNG and weak currencies. Lower oil prices would improve the view, slowing tech exports or further rate hikes in Japan would worsen it.
Americas	Neutral	+60	14 Extreme fear	The automatic check is bullish (score 60) thanks to easing short-term rates in Brazil, Mexico, Canada and Chile, strong commodity prices and a firmer real. EllTec Analysis keeps the region at neutral for now: the Brazilian runoff of 25 October, rising US yields and the weaker Mexican peso can swing markets in both directions. Energy, mining and agricultural exporters benefit from high commodity prices, while fuel importers and companies with dollar debt suffer. A clear election result with credible fiscal discipline would support a more positive view.
Africa & Middle East	Neutral	+45	53 Neutral	The automatic check is bullish (score 45) because oil exporters earn more, South Africa's growth is solid and Israeli and Turkish short-term rates have fallen. EllTec Analysis keeps the view neutral: oil at almost twice last year's level and wheat at 247 dollars per tonne burden importing countries, and the EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index of 40 shows caution. Energy and mining shares benefit most, consumer and import-dependent sectors suffer. A falling oil price or a clear rate cut in South Africa would change the picture.
Oceania	Neutral	+20	63 Greed	The automatic check is bullish (score 20), driven by copper, strong Chinese imports and an Australian dollar firmer than a year ago. EllTec Analysis rates the region neutral: miners and energy producers benefit from high commodity prices, while retailers, real estate and other rate-sensitive sectors suffer from a short-term rate of 4.35% and long-term yields above 5%. Rising unemployment would add to the pressure. A clear signal that the rate cycle is over would improve the view, falling metal prices would worsen it.

Automatic macro check: every indicator of the region counts as tailwind, neutral or headwind, from −100 to +100 (details in the regional views). Fear & Greed: EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index of the region, from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). Click a region for its full weekly outlook.

Fed funds rate (upper target)

4.00 %

1 year: −0.25 pp

ECB deposit rate

2.50 %

1 year: +0.50 pp

US 10-year Treasury yield

5.05 %

1 year: +1.06 pp

German 10-year Bund yield (monthly)

3.47 %

1 year: +0.78 pp

US inflation (CPI, year over year)

3.70 %

1 year: +0.70 pp

Euro area inflation (HICP, year over year)

3.80 %

1 year: +1.60 pp

US unemployment rate

4.20 %

1 year: −0.20 pp

US dollar index (broad, Fed)

121.32

1 year: +0.3 %

Brent crude oil (USD per barrel)

123.10 USD

1 year: +87.9 %

Copper (USD per tonne, monthly)

14,473.06 USD

1 year: +44.8 %

Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 30 (Fear) · Market Sentiment →

Macro outlook Global · Oct 26, 2026Oil near 116 dollars and 10-year yield at 5% keep markets on edge

Rates

The Fed's upper target rate is 4.00% (4.00% a month ago, 4.25% a year ago), after the quarter-point hike in September. The Fed meets on 27 and 28 October; PIMCO and market pricing point to a hold with a tightening bias, and markets firmly expect a hike in December. The ECB deposit rate is 2.50% (2.50% a month ago, 2.00% a year ago) and the ECB decides on 29 October, where most previews expect a pause.

Bond markets are moving faster than central banks. The US 10-year yield is 4.96% on 22 October (3.97% a year ago) and closed near 5.0% on Friday. The 2-year yield is 4.65% (3.45% a year ago), so the curve between 10 and 2 years is positive at 0.31 percentage points (0.53 a year ago). The US 10-year real yield is 2.64% (1.68% a year ago). The broad dollar index is 121.4 (120.7 a year ago).

Inflation

US consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September (3.4% a month ago, 3.0% a year ago). Core inflation is 2.6% (2.4% a month ago, 3.0% a year ago). Energy is the driver: US energy inflation is 20.4%. Brent crude settled at 116.72 dollars on Friday, its highest level since mid-2022, linked to fears that the US and Iran conflict could flare up again. In the euro area, inflation reached 3.8% in September (3.2% a month ago, 2.2% a year ago). Long-term expectations stay calm: the 10-year breakeven is 2.34%.

Growth and earnings

The US labour market is cooling. Payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September (133,000 in August), the unemployment rate is 4.2% (4.4% a year ago) and weekly jobless claims are low at 194,000. Retail sales are 6.3% above last year in nominal terms, partly reflecting higher prices. The third-quarter earnings season is under way. On Friday the Dow fell 1.23%, the S&P 500 0.52% and the Nasdaq 0.21%, with energy the only clear winner. For the week, the S&P 500 lost about 0.5%. Higher yields and a 30-year mortgage rate of 7.32% (6.27% a year ago) are the main counterweight to strong profits.

What this means for our asset classes

Equities: Earnings are strong, but a 10-year yield near 5% raises the discount rate. Long-duration growth stocks and small caps react most sensitively, energy shares benefit from the oil price.
Commodities: Oil is the key driver of inflation and central bank expectations, with Brent almost twice as high as a year ago (60.71 dollars). Copper and the IMF commodity index are also far above last year's level.
Crypto: Bitcoin trades at about 79,900 dollars and Ethereum at about 2,310 dollars (Kraken, 26 October), little changed over 24 hours. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reads 50 (Neutral), down from 59 a week ago. The EllTec Analysis Fear and Greed Index for the global market is 43.
Emerging markets: A strong dollar and high oil prices burden importing countries and their currencies, while commodity exporters benefit.

What matters now

The Fed decision on 28 October, with Chair Warsh's press conference, is the key event: the tone on a December hike and the number of dissenters matter more than the decision itself. The ECB follows on 29 October. Beyond that, the oil price and whether the 10-year yield holds below 5% will shape risk appetite, together with further third-quarter earnings reports.

Data: FRED (via EllTec Analysis macro dashboard), Kraken, Alternative.me, Washington Times and CNBC market reports of 23 October, PIMCO, Forbes, FXStreet. Only for information, not investment advice.

Macro outlook USA · Oct 26, 2026US: Fed decision with 10-year yield near 5% and Brent at 116 dollars

Key takeaways

The Fed's upper target rate is 4.00% after the September hike. The decision on 28 October is expected to be a hold, with markets pricing a hike in December.
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.96% (3.97% a year ago) and closed near 5.0% on Friday. Mortgage rates are 7.32%.
Inflation is 3.7% (core 2.6%), driven by energy inflation of 20.4%. Brent settled at 116.72 dollars on Friday, the highest since mid-2022.
The job market is cooling: only 29,000 jobs in September, but unemployment is 4.2% and jobless claims are low at 194,000.
Stocks fell on Friday (Dow minus 1.23%, S&P 500 minus 0.52%), with energy the only clear winner.

Data overview

Indicator	Latest	A month ago	A year ago	Signal for equities
Fed funds rate (upper)	4.00%	4.00%	4.25%	Headwind
10-year yield	4.96%	4.96%	3.97%	Headwind
2-year yield	4.65%	4.71%	3.45%	Headwind
Curve 10y minus 2y	0.31 pp	0.26 pp	0.53 pp	Neutral
CPI inflation	3.7%	3.4%	3.0%	Headwind
Core inflation	2.6%	2.4%	3.0%	Tailwind
GDP (annualised, Q2)	2.2%	2.5%	4.0%	Tailwind
Unemployment rate	4.2%	4.1%	4.4%	Neutral
Payrolls	29k	133k	76k	Headwind
Financial conditions (Chicago Fed)	-0.50	-0.54	-0.52	Tailwind

Monetary policy and rates

The Fed raised rates in September and meets on 27 and 28 October. PIMCO and market pricing point to a hold with a tightening bias, and Forbes reports that markets firmly expect a hike at the December meeting. For beginners: when safe government bonds pay more, the future profits of companies are worth less today, which hurts expensive growth stocks first. The 10-year real yield is 2.64% (1.68% a year ago).

Inflation

Consumer prices rose 3.7% in September (3.4% a month ago). Core inflation is 2.6% and core PCE 3.0% in August. Producer prices rose 6.3% and import prices 8.1%, which could feed into consumer prices. Long-term expectations stay calm, with the 10-year breakeven at 2.34%.

Growth and labour market

Real growth was 2.2% annualised in the second quarter. Payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September (133,000 in August), yet unemployment is 4.2% and weekly claims of 194,000 are low. The Sahm recession indicator is 0.0, far from its warning level of 0.5, and the recession probability is 0.62%. Corporate profits after tax reached 4.28 trillion dollars annualised in the second quarter (3.38 trillion a year ago).

Liquidity and credit

Net liquidity is 5.47 trillion dollars (5.55 trillion a month ago), a small drop as the Treasury account rose to 0.95 trillion. Bank loans grow 8.1% year over year and financial stress is low (St. Louis index minus 0.63). Credit card delinquency is 2.85% and falling.

Markets, currency and commodities

The broad dollar index is 121.4 (118.9 a month ago). Brent settled at 116.72 dollars on Friday after fears that the US and Iran conflict could flare up again. The S&P 500 closed at 7,623.68 on Friday and lost about 0.5% on the week, according to market reports.

Sentiment

The EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index for the US is 45 (45 a week ago, 62 a month ago). Price strength (87) and market breadth (84) are high, while momentum (13), safe-haven demand (9) and junk bond demand (3) are weak. The crypto index from Alternative.me reads 50 (Neutral), down from 59 a week ago.

Opportunities

A Fed hold with a softer tone could lower yields. Trigger: statement and press conference on 28 October. Growth stocks and housing-related sectors would benefit.
Falling oil prices if tensions ease would cool inflation. Trigger: Brent below 100 dollars. Consumer sectors and transport would benefit.
Strong earnings growth (FactSet expected about 29.6% in mid-October) can support indices despite high yields.

Risk factors

10-year yield above 5%: likelihood medium, impact high. Early warning: closes above 5.1%.
Oil spike on US and Iran escalation: likelihood medium, impact high. Early warning: Brent above 120 dollars.
Labour market weakening further: likelihood medium, impact medium. Early warning: claims above 230,000.
Second hike cycle surprise: likelihood low, impact medium. Early warning: dissents in favour of a hike.

Scenarios for the next one to three months

Scenario	Probability	Description	Meaning for equities
Base case	50%	Fed holds, signals a possible December hike, oil stays above 100 dollars, yields range around 5%.	Sideways with high volatility, energy and banks ahead
Upside case	20%	Softer Fed tone and easing oil prices pull yields below 4.8%.	Growth stocks recover
Downside case	30%	Oil rises further, yields move clearly above 5% and jobs data weaken.	Valuation pressure, cyclical sectors fall

What it means for the asset classes

Asset class	Rating	Reason
Equities	Neutral	Strong earnings against yields near 5%
Government bonds	Headwind	Rising yields and a hawkish Fed
US dollar	Tailwind	Dollar index at 121.4, rate gap in favour
Gold	Headwind	High real yield of 2.64%
Oil	Tailwind	Brent at 116.72 dollars, supply risks
Crypto	Neutral	Bitcoin near 79,900 dollars, sentiment neutral

What to watch next week

28 October: Fed decision (statement 2:00 pm ET, press conference 2:30 pm ET). Watch dissents and the tone on December.
29 October: ECB decision, relevant for the dollar and yields.
Ongoing: third-quarter earnings reports and the oil price. The next US jobs report follows in early November.

Data: FRED (EllTec Analysis macro dashboard), Alternative.me, Kraken, CNBC and Washington Times market reports of 23 October, PIMCO, Forbes, FactSet. Only for information, not investment advice.

Charts and the automatic check for USA →

Macro outlook Germany · Oct 26, 2026Germany: ECB decision ahead as gas prices keep industry under pressure

Key takeaways

The ECB deposit rate is 2.50% (2.00% a year ago). The decision on 29 October is expected by most previews to be a pause.
German inflation is 3.3% in September (2.3% a year ago). Energy is the cause: European gas costs 25.49 dollars per MMBtu against 11.00 a year ago.
The economy grew 1.0% year over year in the second quarter, unemployment is 4.0%.
The 10-year Bund yield averaged 3.47% in September (2.69% a year ago).
The euro is weaker at 1.123 dollars, which helps exporters but makes dollar-priced oil more expensive.

Data overview

Indicator	Latest	A month ago	A year ago	Signal for equities
ECB deposit rate	2.50%	2.50%	2.00%	Headwind
10-year Bund yield (September)	3.47%	3.19%	2.69%	Headwind
Inflation (HICP)	3.3%	2.9%	2.3%	Neutral
GDP growth (year over year, Q2)	1.0%	0.7%	0.4%	Tailwind
Unemployment rate	4.0%	4.0%	3.8%	Neutral
Exports (July, billion USD)	157.4	158.5	151.0	Neutral
Trade balance (July, billion USD)	21.6	17.2	17.4	Tailwind
European gas (USD per MMBtu)	25.49	20.92	11.00	Headwind
EUR/USD	1.123	1.154	1.167	Neutral
Brent (USD per barrel)	115.22	119.66	60.71	Headwind
Italy vs Germany spread	0.80 pp	0.81 pp	0.86 pp	Neutral

Monetary policy and rates

The ECB raised rates in September and decides again on 29 October. The previews from FXStreet expect a pause, with December seen as the more likely date for another step, but nothing is certain. For beginners: higher yields make loans more expensive for companies, home buyers and the state.

Inflation

German inflation (HICP) was 3.3% in September (2.9% a month before). Euro area core inflation is 2.5%, so the problem lies mainly in energy prices rather than broad price pressure. Euro area headline inflation reached 3.8%.

Growth and labour market

The economy grew 1.0% year over year in the second quarter (0.4% a year earlier). Unemployment is 4.0%. Exports were 157.4 billion dollars in July, about 4% above last year, and the trade surplus widened to 21.6 billion dollars.

Liquidity and credit

The ECB balance sheet is 5.94 trillion euros (6.20 trillion a year ago), so liquidity is being withdrawn slowly. The spread of Italian over German yields is 0.80 points with no sign of stress.

Markets, currency and commodities

The euro trades at 1.123 dollars (1.154 a month ago). A weaker euro helps exporters such as carmakers and machinery makers. Brent costs 115.22 dollars, and gas prices matter as the heating season begins.

Sentiment

The EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index for Germany is 32 (47 a week ago, 37 a month ago). Price strength (67) is the strongest component, while momentum (11), safe-haven demand (13) and the currency (21) are weak. The crypto index from Alternative.me reads 50 (Neutral).

Opportunities

An ECB pause with calmer gas prices would ease costs. Trigger: statement on 29 October and gas below 20 dollars. Industrials and chemicals would benefit.
Higher rates support banks and insurers.
A weaker euro supports exporters, as long as global demand holds.

Risk factors

Gas and oil prices rise further: likelihood medium, impact high. Early warning: Brent above 120 dollars.
ECB hikes again: likelihood low to medium, impact medium. Early warning: hawkish tone from Lagarde.
Industrial weakness spreads to jobs: likelihood medium, impact medium. Early warning: unemployment above 4.2%.
Bund yields rise further: likelihood medium, impact medium. Early warning: 10-year above 3.7%.

Scenarios for the next one to three months

Scenario	Probability	Description	Meaning for equities
Base case	50%	ECB pauses, energy stays expensive, growth around 1%.	Sideways, banks and exporters ahead
Upside case	20%	Energy prices fall and the ECB signals an extended pause.	Industrials recover
Downside case	30%	Oil and gas rise and the ECB tightens further.	Pressure on chemicals, steel and consumer stocks

What it means for the asset classes

Asset class	Rating	Reason
Equities	Headwind	Energy costs and higher rates
Government bonds	Headwind	Bund yield up 0.8 points in a year
US dollar	Tailwind	EUR/USD down to 1.123
Gold	Neutral	High real yields offset safe-haven demand
Oil	Tailwind	Brent at 115.22 dollars
Crypto	Neutral	Sentiment neutral

What to watch next week

29 October: ECB decision at 14:15 CET, press conference at 14:45 CET.
28 October: Fed decision, which moves the euro and Bund yields.
Ongoing: gas and oil prices and third-quarter earnings of German companies.

Data: FRED (EllTec Analysis macro dashboard), FXStreet, Alternative.me. Only for information, not investment advice.

Charts and the automatic check for Germany →

Macro outlook Europe · Oct 26, 2026Europe: 3.8% inflation and rising yields ahead of the ECB decision

Key takeaways

Euro area inflation was 3.8% in September (2.2% a year ago), core inflation is 2.5%. Spain (5.0%) and Italy (4.2%) are above average.
The ECB deposit rate is 2.50%. The decision on 29 October is expected to be a pause by most previews.
Euro area GDP grew 1.2% year over year in the second quarter. France lags with 0.5%, Spain leads with 2.6%.
The French yield spread over Germany widened to 1.01 points (0.85 a month earlier).
European gas costs 25.49 dollars per MMBtu against 11.00 a year ago.

Data overview

Indicator	Latest	A month ago	A year ago	Signal for equities
ECB deposit rate	2.50%	2.50%	2.00%	Headwind
Euro area inflation	3.8%	3.2%	2.2%	Headwind
Euro area core inflation	2.5%	2.4%	2.4%	Tailwind
Euro area GDP (year over year, Q2)	1.2%	0.6%	1.4%	Tailwind
German 10-year yield (September)	3.47%	3.19%	2.69%	Headwind
UK 10-year gilt yield (September)	5.24%	4.99%	4.69%	Headwind
Italy vs Germany spread	0.80 pp	0.81 pp	0.86 pp	Neutral
France vs Germany spread	1.01 pp	0.85 pp	0.82 pp	Neutral
European gas (USD per MMBtu)	25.49	20.92	11.00	Headwind
EUR/USD	1.123	1.154	1.167	Neutral
Italy unemployment	6.2%	6.0%	5.7%	Headwind

Monetary policy and rates

The ECB deposit rate is 2.50%, raised from 2.25% in September. The decision on 29 October comes at 14:15 CET. FXStreet and other previews lean towards a hold with December as the likelier date for a further step, but nothing is certain. The UK overnight rate is 3.73%, and gilt yields at 5.24% are the highest in the region. For beginners: when government bonds yield more, borrowing becomes more expensive for states and companies alike.

Inflation

Inflation by country: Spain 5.0%, Italy 4.2%, Poland 4.0%, France 3.4%, Germany 3.3%. Energy is the main driver, while core inflation of 2.5% shows that broad price pressure is limited.

Growth and labour market

Growth in the second quarter: Euro area 1.2%, Spain 2.6%, Italy 1.0%, UK 1.2%, France 0.5%. Unemployment: France 8.2%, Italy 6.2%, Spain 10.0%, Netherlands 4.0%, UK 4.9%.

Liquidity and credit

The ECB balance sheet is 5.94 trillion euros (6.20 trillion a year ago). The Swiss 10-year yield is 0.59% and Poland's 6.23%, showing the wide range of rates in Europe. Spreads of Spain (0.45 points) and Greece (0.76 points) over Germany are contained.

Markets, currency and commodities

The euro trades at 1.123 dollars (1.154 a month ago), the pound at 1.333 dollars. The French spread widened, so investors ask more for holding French debt. Brent costs 115.22 dollars, gas prices rise with the heating season.

Sentiment

The EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index for Europe is 25 (39 a week ago, 44 a month ago, 62 a year ago), a clear fear reading. Momentum (6), safe-haven demand (4) and the currency (21) are weak, price strength (54) is the highest component. The crypto index from Alternative.me reads 50 (Neutral).

Opportunities

Falling gas prices would ease costs. Trigger: gas below 20 dollars. Industrials and chemicals would benefit.
Fear readings below 30 often mean much bad news is priced in. Trigger: stable yields after the ECB.
Banks and insurers earn more with higher rates.

Risk factors

Energy price spike: likelihood medium, impact high. Early warning: Brent above 120 dollars.
French fiscal stress: likelihood medium, impact medium. Early warning: spread above 1.2 points.
ECB tightens again: likelihood low to medium, impact medium. Early warning: hawkish tone on 29 October.
Rising gilt yields spill over: likelihood medium, impact medium. Early warning: gilts above 5.5%.

Scenarios for the next one to three months

Scenario	Probability	Description	Meaning for equities
Base case	50%	ECB pauses, energy stays high, growth around 1%.	Sideways, banks and energy ahead
Upside case	20%	Energy prices fall and yields ease.	Broad recovery, industrials ahead
Downside case	30%	Energy spike and wider spreads force more tightening.	Pressure on cyclicals and real estate

What it means for the asset classes

Asset class	Rating	Reason
Equities	Neutral	Moderate growth against energy costs and higher yields
Government bonds	Headwind	Bund yield up 0.8 points in a year
US dollar	Tailwind	EUR/USD fell to 1.123
Gold	Neutral	Safe-haven demand offset by real yields
Oil	Tailwind	Brent at 115.22 dollars
Crypto	Neutral	Sentiment neutral

What to watch next week

28 October: Fed decision, which moves the euro.
29 October: ECB decision at 14:15 CET, press conference at 14:45 CET.
Ongoing: gas prices, French spread and third-quarter earnings of European companies.

Data: FRED (EllTec Analysis macro dashboard), FXStreet, Alternative.me. Only for information, not investment advice.

Charts and the automatic check for Europe →

Macro outlook Asia · Oct 26, 2026Asia: export boom meets weak yen, rising yields and expensive oil

Key takeaways

Exports boom: China 396.3 billion dollars in August (24.9% above last year), South Korea 100.4 billion (67.8% above), India 46.0 billion (26.1% above).
Rates rise in Japan and South Korea. Japan's 10-year yield is 3.05% (1.65% a year ago), South Korea's 4.45% (2.85%).
The yen weakened to 158 per dollar (150.75 a year ago), while the yuan strengthened to 6.69 (7.12).
Brent at 115.22 dollars and Asian LNG at 26.64 dollars per MMBtu burden energy importers.
The Bank of Japan decides on 30 October.

Data overview

Indicator	Latest	A month ago	A year ago	Signal for equities
Japan overnight rate (September average)	1.04%	0.98%	0.48%	Headwind
Japan 10-year yield (September)	3.05%	2.94%	1.65%	Headwind
Japan GDP (year over year, Q2)	0.5%	0.4%	1.9%	Neutral
South Korea GDP (year over year, Q2)	3.7%	3.8%	0.8%	Tailwind
South Korea short-term rate	3.04%	2.81%	2.53%	Headwind
India short-term rate	5.50%	5.50%	5.75%	Tailwind
China exports (August, billion USD)	396.3	387.5	317.3	Tailwind
South Korea exports (August, billion USD)	100.4	98.2	59.9	Tailwind
USD/JPY	158.0	155.1	150.8	Neutral
USD/CNY	6.686	6.706	7.123	Tailwind
Brent (USD per barrel)	115.22	119.66	60.71	Headwind
China real house prices (year over year)	-7.1%	-6.3%	-7.4%	Headwind

Monetary policy and rates

Several central banks are tightening. Japan's overnight rate averaged 1.04% in September, and BabyPips reported a hike to 1.25% on 18 September by a 7 to 2 vote, after which the yen fell because the governor did not promise more hikes. South Korea's short-term rate is 3.04%, India's 5.50% with a 10-year yield of 7.06%. For beginners: higher yields make shares less attractive compared with bonds and raise financing costs.

Inflation

Energy is the main price pressure, because most large Asian economies import it. Brent costs 115.22 dollars (60.71 a year ago), Asian LNG 26.64 dollars per MMBtu in September (11.28 a year ago) and copper 14,473 dollars per tonne (9,995).

Growth and labour market

South Korea grew 3.7% in the second quarter, Japan only 0.5%. Unemployment is 2.5% in Japan and 2.7% in South Korea. China's trade surplus is 113.8 billion dollars per month, but its real house prices are still falling by 7.1% year over year.

Liquidity and credit

The Bank of Japan balance sheet is shrinking: 625 trillion yen (696 trillion a year ago). China's foreign exchange reserves are 3.48 trillion dollars (June). Higher yields in Japan and Korea tighten financing conditions.

Markets, currency and commodities

The yen is weak at 158 per dollar despite higher rates, the rupee at 94.96 (87.81 a year ago). The yuan (6.69) and the won (1,334 against 1,416) are stronger. The broad dollar index is 121.4. Iron ore is 100 dollars per tonne (106 a year ago).

Sentiment

The EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index for Asia is 38 (35 a week ago, 60 a month ago, 61 a year ago). Momentum (1) and safe-haven demand (0) are very weak, volatility (78) and the currency (63) are firm. The crypto index from Alternative.me reads 50 (Neutral).

Opportunities

Strong demand for chips and electronics supports exporters in Taiwan, South Korea and China. Trigger: further export growth above 20%.
Falling oil would relieve India and Japan. Trigger: Brent below 100 dollars.
India's lower rates (5.50% against 5.75% a year ago) support domestic sectors.

Risk factors

Oil above 120 dollars: likelihood medium, impact high. Early warning: Brent rises further after Friday's settle of 116.72 dollars.
Faster Japanese rate hikes: likelihood medium, impact medium. Early warning: hawkish tone on 30 October.
Export slowdown: likelihood low to medium, impact high. Early warning: monthly exports growing below 10%.
Chinese property weakness: likelihood high, impact medium. Early warning: house prices falling faster than 7%.

Scenarios for the next one to three months

Scenario	Probability	Description	Meaning for equities
Base case	50%	Exports stay strong, oil stays high, Japan moves cautiously.	Sideways, tech exporters ahead
Upside case	20%	Oil falls below 100 dollars and the dollar eases.	Broad rally, importers recover
Downside case	30%	Oil rises further, yields climb and tech demand cools.	Pressure on importers and high valuations

What it means for the asset classes

Asset class	Rating	Reason
Equities	Neutral	Export boom against rising rates and oil
Government bonds	Headwind	Japanese 10-year yield up 1.4 points in a year
US dollar	Tailwind	USD/JPY at 158
Gold	Neutral	High US real yields offset safe-haven demand
Oil	Tailwind	Brent at 115.22 dollars
Crypto	Neutral	Sentiment neutral

What to watch next week

28 October: Fed decision, which moves the dollar and Asian currencies.
29 and 30 October: Bank of Japan meeting, decision and Outlook Report on 30 October.
Ongoing: oil prices and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Data: FRED (EllTec Analysis macro dashboard), BabyPips, Alternative.me. Only for information, not investment advice.

Charts and the automatic check for Asia →

Macro outlook Americas · Oct 26, 2026Americas: commodities support markets while Brazil's runoff result is awaited

Key takeaways

Central banks are still easing: Brazil's short-term rate is 13.94% (15.00% a year ago), Mexico's 5.20% (6.09%), Canada's 2.24% (2.67%).
Commodities are strong: WTI 107.89 dollars (58.34 a year ago), copper 14,473 dollars per tonne (up 44.8%), soybeans 482 dollars per tonne (369).
Brazil held its presidential runoff on 25 October. In the first round on 4 October, Flávio Bolsonaro had about 47% and Lula about 45%. The result was not confirmed in the sources available at the time of writing.
Long-term yields rise nonetheless: Canada 3.88% (3.22% a year ago), Mexico 9.35%, Chile 6.01%.
The Bank of Canada and the Fed decide on 28 October.

Data overview

Indicator	Latest	A month ago	A year ago	Signal for equities
Brazil short-term rate	13.94%	14.06%	15.00%	Tailwind
Mexico short-term rate	5.20%	5.09%	6.09%	Tailwind
Canada short-term rate	2.24%	2.25%	2.67%	Tailwind
Canada 10-year yield	3.88%	3.68%	3.22%	Headwind
Canada unemployment	6.4%	6.4%	7.1%	Tailwind
GDP growth (Q2): Brazil / Mexico / Canada	1.9% / 1.9% / 1.1%	1.8% / 0.5% / 0.1%	2.6% / 0.8% / 2.0%	Neutral
USD/BRL	5.09	5.14	5.43	Tailwind
USD/MXN	18.50	17.14	18.40	Neutral
USD/CAD	1.416	1.393	1.405	Neutral
Canada exports (August, billion USD)	55.4	52.3	43.9	Tailwind
WTI (USD per barrel)	107.89	101.44	58.34	Tailwind
Copper (USD per tonne, September)	14,473	14,331	9,995	Tailwind

Monetary policy and rates

Brazil, Mexico, Canada and Chile (4.50%) have lowered short-term rates over the past year. The Bank of Canada decides on 28 October with its rate at 2.25%. MoneySense reported that markets saw the meeting as a near coin flip between hold and hike, while economists mostly expect a hold. For beginners: falling short-term rates support shares, rising long-term yields work against them.

Inflation

Expensive energy and food are the common theme. Soybeans cost 482 dollars per tonne in September (369 a year ago), corn 237 (196) and the IMF food index is 137.1 (126.7). Arabica coffee is the exception: 330 US cents per pound against 400.

Growth and labour market

Brazil grew 1.9% year over year in the second quarter, Mexico 1.9%, Canada 1.1% and Argentina 2.3% in the first quarter. Canada's unemployment fell to 6.4% from 7.1%, Chile's is 9.4% and Mexico's 2.7%. Canadian real house prices fall 6.8% year over year, while Brazil (5.4%) and Colombia (7.0%) rise.

Liquidity and credit

The Brazilian short-term rate of 13.94% remains among the highest in the world, which keeps credit expensive. Trade balances improved: Canada +4.0 billion dollars (August), Mexico +3.5 billion, Brazil +8.2 billion (September).

Markets, currency and commodities

The Brazilian real is at 5.09 per dollar (5.43 a year ago), the Mexican peso weakened to 18.50 from 17.14 a month ago, the Canadian dollar to 1.416. The broad dollar index is 121.4. Copper, important for Chile and Peru, is 44.8% above last year.

Sentiment

The EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index for the Americas is 68 (63 a week ago, 53 a month ago, 54 a year ago), in greed territory. Price strength (95), safe-haven demand (86), currency (84) and momentum (67) are high, while volatility (9) is a warning sign. The crypto index from Alternative.me reads 50 (Neutral).

Opportunities

High commodity prices support exporters of energy, metals and crops. Trigger: oil and copper holding current levels.
Further rate cuts in Brazil would ease credit. Trigger: calm inflation and a credible budget after the election.
Canadian exports growing 26% support the trade balance.

Risk factors

Election and budget uncertainty in Brazil: likelihood medium, impact high. Early warning: a falling real and rising bond yields.
Rising US yields strain emerging currencies: likelihood medium, impact medium. Early warning: US 10-year above 5.1%.
Weaker Mexican peso: likelihood medium, impact medium. Early warning: USD/MXN above 19.
Falling commodity prices: likelihood low to medium, impact high. Early warning: oil below 90 dollars.

Scenarios for the next one to three months

Scenario	Probability	Description	Meaning for equities
Base case	50%	Commodities stay high, rates drift lower, markets digest the Brazilian result.	Moderate gains, commodity sectors ahead
Upside case	20%	Credible fiscal plan in Brazil and softer US yields.	Broad rally, domestic sectors benefit
Downside case	30%	Fiscal worries, weaker currencies and a stronger dollar.	Pressure on banks and importers

What it means for the asset classes

Asset class	Rating	Reason
Equities	Neutral	Easing rates and commodities against election risk
Government bonds	Neutral	High yields compensate, but long yields are rising
US dollar	Neutral	Dollar index 121.4, real stronger
Gold	Neutral	Real yields offset safe-haven demand
Oil	Tailwind	WTI at 107.89 dollars supports exporters
Crypto	Neutral	Sentiment neutral

What to watch next week

Early in the week: market reaction to the result of Brazil's presidential runoff of 25 October.
28 October: Bank of Canada and Fed decisions.
Ongoing: oil and copper prices, Mexican peso.

Data: FRED (EllTec Analysis macro dashboard), MoneySense, Xinhua and Courthouse News via web search, Alternative.me. Only for information, not investment advice.

Charts and the automatic check for Americas →

Macro outlook Africa & Middle East · Oct 26, 2026Africa and Middle East: oil at 115 dollars helps exporters, burdens importers

Key takeaways

Brent costs 115.22 dollars (60.71 a year ago), the Dubai benchmark averaged 111.83 dollars in September. Exporters earn more, importers pay more.
Wheat costs 247 dollars per tonne (155 a year ago), which raises food bills in import-dependent countries.
South Africa grew 2.0% in the first quarter, exports rose 17.0% to 11.4 billion dollars, but unemployment is 33.0%.
Central banks in Israel (3.27%) and Turkey (35.50%) have eased over the year, South Africa's rate is 7.05%.
Saudi Arabia's real GDP shrank 3.7% year over year in the second quarter (3.1% growth in the previous reading).

Data overview

Indicator	Latest	A month ago	A year ago	Signal for equities
Brent (USD per barrel)	115.22	119.66	60.71	Tailwind
Dubai crude (September, USD)	111.83	88.05	69.92	Tailwind
Wheat (USD per tonne)	246.9	237.9	155.1	Headwind
South Africa short-term rate	7.05%	7.00%	7.00%	Headwind
South Africa 10-year yield	8.95%	8.75%	9.87%	Tailwind
South Africa GDP (year over year, Q1)	2.0%	1.5%	0.4%	Tailwind
South Africa unemployment	33.0%	32.6%	32.6%	Neutral
Israel short-term rate	3.27%	3.50%	4.50%	Tailwind
Turkey short-term rate	35.50%	35.50%	41.50%	Tailwind
USD/ZAR	16.47	16.26	17.31	Neutral
South Africa exports (August, billion USD)	11.4	11.1	9.8	Tailwind
Israel trade balance (August, billion USD)	-5.3	-3.8	-3.2	Headwind

Monetary policy and rates

South Africa's short-term rate is 7.05% (7.00% a year ago), while its 10-year yield fell to 8.95% from 9.87%. Lower long-term yields make borrowing cheaper and support valuations. Israel's rate is 3.27% (4.50% a year ago), Turkey's 35.50% (41.50%). For beginners: easing by central banks usually helps shares, but very high rates such as Turkey's still weigh on the economy.

Inflation

Energy and food are the biggest price drivers. The IMF energy index is 256.9 (157.9 a year ago) and the food index 137.1 (126.7). Coal costs 153.84 dollars per tonne (112.53). For importers such as many North African countries this means higher fuel and food bills, for oil exporters higher revenues.

Growth and labour market

South Africa grew 2.0% year over year in the first quarter (0.4% a year earlier) and Turkey 2.6% in the second quarter (4.3%). Unemployment: South Africa 33.0%, Turkey 7.8% (8.6% a year ago), Israel 2.8%. Real house prices fall in Israel (minus 3.2%) and Turkey (minus 3.3%), and rise in South Africa (2.7%).

Liquidity and credit

Turkey's very high policy rate of 35.50% keeps credit expensive. Israel's yield is 4.08% and has stayed roughly stable over the year. The broad US dollar index is 121.4, close to its level of a year ago, so there is no extra dollar pressure compared with 2025, although the emerging market dollar index rose to 130.0 from 127.2 a month ago.

Markets, currency and commodities

The rand trades at 16.47 per dollar (17.31 a year ago). Brent settled at 116.72 dollars on Friday after fears that the US and Iran conflict could flare up again. Henry Hub gas is steady at 3.10 dollars, unlike the sharp rise in Europe and Asia.

Sentiment

The EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index for the region is 40 (37 a week ago, 35 a month ago, 45 a year ago). Volatility (93) and gold (66) are strong, while price strength (27), momentum (10) and safe-haven demand (7) are weak. The crypto index from Alternative.me reads 50 (Neutral).

Opportunities

High oil prices raise revenues of exporters. Trigger: Brent staying above 100 dollars. Energy and bank shares in exporting countries would benefit.
Falling long-term yields in South Africa help domestic sectors. Trigger: 10-year yield below 8.5%.
Gold at strong levels supports miners. Trigger: stable gold demand.

Risk factors

Oil price drop: likelihood low to medium, impact high for exporters. Early warning: Brent below 90 dollars.
Regional escalation involving Iran: likelihood medium, impact high. Early warning: oil spikes and shipping disruptions.
Food price spike hits importers such as Egypt: likelihood medium, impact medium. Early warning: wheat above 260 dollars.
Weaker rand if US yields climb: likelihood medium, impact medium. Early warning: USD/ZAR above 17.

Scenarios for the next one to three months

Scenario	Probability	Description	Meaning for equities
Base case	50%	Oil stays above 100 dollars, rates on hold.	Energy and miners ahead, importers lag
Upside case	20%	Oil stays firm and US yields ease, helping the rand.	Broad gains
Downside case	30%	Oil falls sharply or conflict disrupts trade and food prices rise.	Pressure on exporters or importers, depending on the shock

What it means for the asset classes

Asset class	Rating	Reason
Equities	Neutral	Oil revenue against food costs and caution
Government bonds	Neutral	South African yields fell, Turkish rates very high
US dollar	Neutral	Dollar index roughly flat over the year
Gold	Tailwind	Supports mining shares, gold component 66
Oil	Tailwind	Brent at 115.22 dollars helps exporters
Crypto	Neutral	Sentiment neutral

What to watch next week

28 October: Fed decision, which moves the dollar and emerging market currencies.
Ongoing: oil price, news on the US and Iran conflict, wheat and food prices.
Rand and South African bond yields as a gauge of investor confidence.

Data: FRED and IMF series (EllTec Analysis macro dashboard), Washington Times market report of 23 October, Alternative.me. Only for information, not investment advice.

Charts and the automatic check for Africa & Middle East →

Macro outlook Oceania · Oct 26, 2026Australia and New Zealand: high yields weigh, copper and Chinese demand support

Key takeaways

Australia's short-term rate is 4.35% (3.60% a year ago) and its 10-year yield 5.28% (4.30%). New Zealand's 10-year yield is 4.94% (4.29%).
Australian unemployment rose to 4.65% in August from 4.22% a year earlier, a first sign that higher rates cool the labour market.
Exports are 33.8 billion dollars, 28.1% above last year, helped by Chinese imports, which rose 28.1% to 282.5 billion dollars.
Copper costs 14,473 dollars per tonne (up 44.8%), coal 153.84 (112.53), while iron ore is flat at 100.44 dollars.
The Australian dollar is at 0.695 US dollars (0.649 a year ago).

Data overview

Indicator	Latest	A month ago	A year ago	Signal for equities
Australia short-term rate	4.35%	4.35%	3.60%	Headwind
Australia 10-year yield (September)	5.28%	5.02%	4.30%	Headwind
New Zealand 10-year yield (September)	4.94%	4.71%	4.29%	Headwind
Australia GDP (year over year, Q2)	2.1%	2.5%	1.9%	Tailwind
Australia unemployment (August)	4.65%	4.48%	4.22%	Neutral
Australia exports (August, billion USD)	33.8	31.8	26.4	Tailwind
China imports (August, billion USD)	282.5	279.7	220.6	Tailwind
AUD/USD	0.695	0.713	0.649	Tailwind
NZD/USD	0.565	0.576	0.573	Neutral
Copper (USD per tonne)	14,473	14,331	9,995	Tailwind
Iron ore (USD per tonne)	100.44	99.62	106.41	Neutral
Australia real house prices (year over year)	5.7%	4.2%	2.0%	Neutral

Monetary policy and rates

Australia's short-term rate has risen 0.75 points in a year and has been unchanged recently. Long-term yields rose faster, which makes loans for homes and companies more expensive. For beginners: higher yields make bonds more attractive compared with shares. The next move by the Reserve Bank of Australia depends on inflation and the labour market, and any hint that the rate cycle is over would help rate-sensitive sectors.

Inflation

Energy adds to price pressure. Brent costs 115.22 dollars per barrel (60.71 a year ago), and Asian LNG, an important Australian export, 26.64 dollars per MMBtu in September (11.28). Australian coal costs 153.84 dollars per tonne (112.53).

Growth and labour market

Australia's economy grew 2.1% year over year in the second quarter (2.5% in the first). Unemployment is 4.65%. Real house prices are 5.7% above last year, which supports household wealth but also keeps pressure on affordability.

Liquidity and credit

Long-term yields above 5% in Australia and close to 5% in New Zealand tighten financing conditions for companies and households. The global backdrop is driven by US yields near 5%, which also lifts local funding costs.

Markets, currency and commodities

The Australian dollar is at 0.695 US dollars (0.713 a month ago), the New Zealand dollar at 0.565. Uranium costs 72.47 dollars per pound (62.88). The IMF metals index is 237.7 (192.6 a year ago).

Sentiment

The EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index for Oceania is 40 (40 a week ago, 36 a month ago, 66 a year ago). Momentum (24) and safe-haven demand (32) are weak, volatility (54), price strength (47) and the currency (45) are in the middle. The crypto index from Alternative.me reads 50 (Neutral).

Opportunities

High metal and energy prices support miners and energy producers. Trigger: copper above 14,000 dollars. Mining and energy shares would benefit.
Strong Chinese imports support exports. Trigger: China's imports keep growing above 20%.
A signal that the rate cycle is over would help real estate and retail.

Risk factors

Falling metal prices: likelihood medium, impact high. Early warning: copper below 12,500 dollars.
Higher unemployment: likelihood medium, impact medium. Early warning: rate above 5%.
Further rate hikes: likelihood low to medium, impact medium. Early warning: hawkish central bank statements.
Chinese property weakness: likelihood high, impact medium. Early warning: Chinese real house prices falling faster than 7%.

Scenarios for the next one to three months

Scenario	Probability	Description	Meaning for equities
Base case	50%	Rates on hold, commodities stay high, yields around 5%.	Sideways, miners ahead of rate-sensitive sectors
Upside case	20%	Rate cycle seen as over and global yields ease.	Broad gains, real estate and retail recover
Downside case	30%	Metals fall and unemployment rises further.	Pressure on miners and banks

What it means for the asset classes

Asset class	Rating	Reason
Equities	Neutral	Commodity strength against high yields
Government bonds	Headwind	Australian 10-year yield up 1.0 point in a year
US dollar	Neutral	Australian dollar firmer than a year ago
Gold	Neutral	High real yields offset safe-haven demand
Oil	Tailwind	Supports energy producers, burdens fuel users
Crypto	Neutral	Sentiment neutral

What to watch next week

28 October: Fed decision, which moves the Australian and New Zealand dollar.
Ongoing: statements from the Reserve Bank of Australia on whether the rate cycle is over.
Copper and iron ore prices, demand signals from China, oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz.

Data: FRED and IMF series (EllTec Analysis macro dashboard), Alternative.me. Only for information, not investment advice.

Charts and the automatic check for Oceania →

2. Markets this week

Wall Street ended the week to 23 October 2026 mixed: technology stocks fell, the Dow and small caps gained, Brent rose above 116 US dollars and gold lost a good 4 percent. The coming week centres on the Fed decision on Wednesday and the results of Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon.

Show

1. Overview

The trading week to Friday, 23 October 2026, was shaped by concerns about how AI investment will be financed, a rising oil price and yields close to 5 percent. The Nasdaq Composite posted its second weekly loss in a row. The Dow Jones, by contrast, gained for the third week in a row, carried by defensive stocks. Small caps were the strongest major index with a gain of 2.0 percent.

Equity indices

Index	Weekly close 23 Oct 2026	Change on the week
S&P 500	7,623.68	-0.5 %
Nasdaq-100	28,957.53	-0.8 %
Dow Jones	52,215.16	+0.4 %
Russell 2000	2,775.90	+2.0 %
DAX (Xetra)	about 25,150	about -1.5 % to -1.8 % (sources differ)

On Thursday the Nasdaq Composite fell more sharply than at any time since June, as investors questioned the financing costs of the heavy AI investment. Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to 135 to 145 billion US dollars and reported negative free cash flow of 2.12 billion US dollars on revenue of 64.6 billion US dollars (+26 %). The SOX semiconductor index lost 3.2 percent on the week. By sector, energy (+1.6 %), health care (+1.5 %) and real estate (+1.0 %) led, while communication services (-4.4 %) and industrials (-1.9 %) were at the bottom.

Commodities, rates and crypto

Market	Level 23 Oct 2026	Change on the week
Brent	116.72 US dollars	+6.2 %, highest close since late April
WTI (December)	103.27 US dollars	+1.8 % to +4.3 % depending on the source
Gold (December)	4,007.90 US dollars per ounce	about -4.1 %
US 10-year yield	5.00 %	-9 basis points (previous week 5.09 %)
Bitcoin	about 81,400 US dollars	-0.2 %
Ether	no price given	-0.8 %

The oil price rose after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and the ongoing situation in the Middle East. This weighs on consumer sentiment: the Michigan index stood at 48 in October, one-year inflation expectations at 4.7 percent. Gold briefly fell below 4,000 US dollars, and the SLV silver ETF lost 5.4 percent. The earnings season has been strong so far: of the 111 S&P 500 companies that have reported, 83 percent beat profit expectations, and earnings growth of more than 32 percent is expected for the third quarter (LSEG).

Relevance for assets covered by EllTec Analysis

Gold (XAU): the weekly decline of about 4 percent despite higher oil prices shows the pressure from high real yields. For the gold analysis this is a relevant counterargument to commodity strength.
Bitcoin and Strategy (MSTR): Bitcoin was almost unchanged, but is down about 7 percent since the start of the year.
Volkswagen (VOW3): in the US auto sector GM announced a share buyback of 20 billion US dollars, but the midpoint of its guidance was below expectations. The stock lost 9.6 percent.
Dell (DELL): the backdrop for AI infrastructure and semiconductors remained under pressure, with the SOX down 3.2 percent.

2. Top and flop performers

The figures refer to the US market in the week to 23 October 2026. Software and cybersecurity stocks rebounded strongly, while semiconductor equipment makers and telecom stocks fell clearly.

Top 5	Weekly gain	Flop 5	Weekly loss
Zscaler	+23.0 %	Lam Research	-12.8 %
CrowdStrike	+13.3 %	KLA	-12.2 %
ServiceNow	+12.0 %	CoreWeave	-11.7 %
Palo Alto Networks	+11.3 %	AT&T	-10.7 %
Workday	+10.1 %	General Motors	-9.6 %

Among the mega caps, Meta lost 9.4 percent and Alphabet 6.0 percent, while Nvidia gave up 1.5 percent. Tesla gained 4.9 percent and Apple 1.2 percent. AT&T and T-Mobile fell after a report that SpaceX is looking for mobile network sites for a fourth carrier. Newmont lost 8.2 percent as the gold price declined. The energy sector reached a record high on Friday, and SLB rose 6.7 percent after better than expected quarterly results.

3. Outlook

The coming week brings several dates that can set the direction of the markets.

Date	Event
Monday, 26 Oct	Verizon quarterly results
Tuesday, 27 Oct	Housing starts, Case-Shiller, factory orders; results from Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS, Freeport
Wednesday, 28 Oct	Fed rate decision (2:00 pm ET); after the close Microsoft, Alphabet, KLA, T-Mobile, ServiceNow, Ford
Thursday, 29 Oct	Third-quarter GDP, September PCE price index; results from Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Merck, Caterpillar, after the close Amazon, Intel, Starbucks, Coinbase
Friday, 30 Oct	Exxon, Chevron, AbbVie; employment cost index

Futures markets price a rate hike at the Fed meeting with a probability of about 5 percent, and by December with about 80 percent (LSEG via Reuters). With Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, investors are watching AI capital expenditure above all. The US midterm elections follow on 3 November. Additional risks are a further escalation in the Middle East with oil prices rising further, and yields of 5 percent that can weigh on the valuations of growth stocks.

Disclaimer

This market briefing is for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. All information is based on publicly available sources and may contain deviations. Investments in stocks, commodities and crypto assets carry risks, up to the total loss of the capital invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Sources: The Glass Desk, Weekly Market Review 2026-10-23 (theglassdesk.substack.com); Investomine, Weekly Market Report 23 October 2026 (investomine.substack.com); Spokesman-Review/Reuters, market report of 23 Oct 2026 (spokesman.com); finanzen.at and finanzen.net, Xetra close 23 Oct 2026; Deutsche Börse (DAX previous week).

What it means for equities

Refers to: global equities (MSCI World, S&P 500, Stoxx 600)

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Automatic macro check

NeutralScore 0 · 13 indicators · 5 tailwinds · 5 headwinds

Neutral: tailwinds and headwinds roughly balance.

Indicator	Latest	Reading	Effect
Fed funds rate (upper target)	4.00 %	Raised by 0.3 pp in the last months: the central bank is tightening again.	Headwind
ECB deposit rate	2.50 %	Raised by 0.3 pp in the last months: the central bank is tightening again.	Headwind
US 10-year Treasury yield	5.05 %	Up 1.1 pp in 12 months: higher long-term rates weigh on valuations.	Headwind
US core inflation (excl. food and energy)	2.60 %	At 2.6% close to the 2% target: room for lower rates.	Tailwind
Euro area inflation (HICP, year over year)	3.80 %	At 3.8% well above the 2% target: rates likely stay high.	Headwind
US GDP growth (real, annualised, quarterly)	3.40 %	3.4% growth: a solid base for company earnings.	Tailwind
Chicago Fed financial conditions index	-0.49	Clearly below zero (-0.5): loose financial conditions.	Tailwind
US net liquidity (Fed balance sheet minus TGA and reverse repo)	5.42 tn USD	Roughly stable (+1.7% in 12 months).	Neutral
US dollar index (broad, Fed)	121.32	The dollar is roughly stable (+0.3% in 12 months).	Neutral
Brent crude oil (USD per barrel)	123.10 USD	Energy is 87.9% more expensive than a year ago: a cost burden for companies and consumers.	Headwind
Copper (USD per tonne, monthly)	14,473.06 USD	Up 44.8% in 12 months: strong industrial demand.	Tailwind
US recession probability (Chauvet/Piger, monthly)	0.62 %	A recession probability of 0.6% is low.	Tailwind
US dollar vs. emerging market currencies	130.21	The dollar is roughly stable (−1.2% in 12 months).	Neutral

How to read this

The automatic check rates each indicator by a fixed, transparent rule: for example, falling policy rates, inflation close to target, growing exports or falling unemployment count as a tailwind for equities, the opposite as a headwind.

The score is the average of all ratings from −100 (every indicator a headwind) to +100 (every indicator a tailwind). Above +20 counts as bullish, below −20 as bearish, in between as neutral. It is recalculated from the latest data on every visit.

The macro backdrop says whether a market has a tailwind or a headwind, not where it will be next week. EllTec Analysis combines it with fundamentals and the technical structure in every analysis. No investment advice.

Regional outlooks at a glance

Written view where available, otherwise the automatic check. Choose a region for charts and the weekly analysis.

USANeutralUS equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000)EllTec Analysis view · Score +27 GermanyBearishGerman equities (DAX, MDAX)EllTec Analysis view · Score -25 EuropeNeutralEuropean equities (Stoxx 600, Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, SMI, AEX)EllTec Analysis view · Score -10 AsiaNeutralAsian equities (Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, Kospi, Nifty 50)EllTec Analysis view · Score +17 AmericasNeutralCanadian and Latin American equities (S&P/TSX, Bovespa, IPC, IPSA)EllTec Analysis view · Score +60 Africa & Middle EastNeutralAfrican and Middle Eastern equities (JSE Top 40, TA-35, BIST 100, Gulf markets)EllTec Analysis view · Score +45 OceaniaNeutralAustralian and New Zealand equities (S&P/ASX 200, All Ordinaries, NZX 50)EllTec Analysis view · Score +20

Market Sentiment

How fearful or greedy investors are right now: the EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index for eight regions and the crypto Fear & Greed Index.

EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index

How fearful or greedy investors are in each region, measured by EllTec Analysis every trading day from up to eight market indicators. 0 means extreme fear, 100 extreme greed. Extreme fear has often marked good buying opportunities, extreme greed overheated markets.

Global

Measured on: Global equities (MSCI ACWI ETF) · Oct 30, 2026

Fear

1 week: +2 · 1 month: −19 · 1 year: −11

Move over the line for the value on a date.

Components

Momentum13
Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
Price strength87
Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
Volatility73
20-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
Safe-haven demand12
20-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
Junk bond demand10
20-day return of high-yield bonds minus Treasuries. Appetite for risky bonds shows greed.
Stocks vs. gold76
20-day return of stocks minus gold. A flight into gold shows fear.
Financial stress38
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (rates, credit spreads, volatility). High stress shows fear (inverted).

USA

Measured on: S&P 500 · Oct 30, 2026

Neutral

1 week: +3 · 1 month: −7 · 1 year: ±0

Move over the line for the value on a date.

Components

Momentum18
Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
Price strength93
Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
Volatility66
20-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
Safe-haven demand17
20-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
Junk bond demand10
20-day return of high-yield bonds minus Treasuries. Appetite for risky bonds shows greed.
Market breadth91
Equal-weight against cap-weight S&P 500. When many stocks rise, not only the giants, the mood is broad.
Financial stress38
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (rates, credit spreads, volatility). High stress shows fear (inverted).

Europe

Measured on: Euro Stoxx 50 · Oct 28, 2026

Fear

1 week: −10 · 1 month: −24 · 1 year: −36

Move over the line for the value on a date.

Components

Momentum13
Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
Price strength63
Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
Volatility36
20-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
Safe-haven demand10
20-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
Currency13
20-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.

Germany

Measured on: DAX · Oct 28, 2026

Fear

1 week: −5 · 1 month: −5 · 1 year: −2

Move over the line for the value on a date.

Components

Momentum26
Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
Price strength80
Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
Volatility45
20-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
Safe-haven demand36
20-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
Currency13
20-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.

Asia

Measured on: Asian equities ex Japan (MSCI AC Asia ex Japan ETF) · Oct 30, 2026

Fear

1 week: +4 · 1 month: −15 · 1 year: −28

Move over the line for the value on a date.

Components

Momentum2
Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
Price strength57
Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
Volatility65
20-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
Safe-haven demand2
20-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
Currency78
20-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.

Americas

Measured on: Latin American equities (Latin America 40 ETF) · Oct 30, 2026

Extreme fear

1 week: −51 · 1 month: −36 · 1 year: −48

Move over the line for the value on a date.

Components

Momentum8
Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
Price strength45
Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
Volatility0
20-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
Safe-haven demand6
20-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
Currency13
20-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.

Africa & Middle East

Measured on: South African equities (MSCI South Africa ETF) · Oct 30, 2026

Neutral

1 week: +10 · 1 month: +25 · 1 year: −3

Move over the line for the value on a date.

Components

Momentum15
Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
Price strength31
Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
Volatility99
20-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
Safe-haven demand38
20-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
Currency47
20-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.
Stocks vs. gold88
20-day return of stocks minus gold. A flight into gold shows fear.

Oceania

Measured on: S&P/ASX 200 · Oct 30, 2026

Greed

1 week: +20 · 1 month: +19 · 1 year: +11

Move over the line for the value on a date.

Components

Momentum39
Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
Price strength63
Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
Volatility89
20-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
Safe-haven demand60
20-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
Currency66
20-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.

How the index is calculated

Every indicator is compared with its own last three years: the reading becomes a percentile from 0 (the most fearful reading of the period) to 100 (the most greedy). This way each indicator is judged against what is normal for it.

The index is the average of the available indicators. Readings from 0 to 25 mean extreme fear, 25 to 45 fear, 45 to 55 neutral, 55 to 75 greed and 75 to 100 extreme greed.

Data: daily closing prices from Yahoo Finance (stock indices, ETFs, currencies; only the derived index is shown) and the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index from FRED. Recalculated once a day.

Like every sentiment gauge it describes the mood, not the future. It is most useful at the extremes and together with the analysis of the asset itself.

Momentum: Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
Price strength: Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
Volatility: 20-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
Safe-haven demand: 20-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
Junk bond demand: 20-day return of high-yield bonds minus Treasuries. Appetite for risky bonds shows greed.
Market breadth: Equal-weight against cap-weight S&P 500. When many stocks rise, not only the giants, the mood is broad.
Currency: 20-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.
Stocks vs. gold: 20-day return of stocks minus gold. A flight into gold shows fear.
Financial stress: St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (rates, credit spreads, volatility). High stress shows fear (inverted).

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Fear

as of Oct 30, 2026 · 1 week: −20 · 1 month: −41

US inflation (CPI, year over year)

3.70 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.30 pp · 1 year: +0.70 pp

Change in period: ±0.00 pp

Consumer price inflation; the Fed targets 2%.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The US inflation rate: how much more expensive a typical basket of goods and services (rent, food, petrol, services) has become compared with the same month a year ago. The dashed line shows the Fed's 2% target.

What can it signal?

If inflation is well above 2%, the Fed tends to keep rates high or raise them. If it falls toward 2%, rate cuts become more likely. Surprises in the monthly release often move markets strongly.

What is it connected with?

Directly linked to the policy rate, bond yields and the US dollar. High inflation squeezes consumers and company margins but can help commodities and real assets. Oil prices are a key driver.

US core inflation (excl. food and energy)

2.60 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.20 pp · 1 year: −0.40 pp

Change in period: −1.50 pp

Strips out volatile food and energy prices and shows the underlying trend.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

US inflation excluding energy and food. Those two categories swing a lot, so core inflation shows the underlying price trend better.

What can it signal?

If core inflation stays high while headline inflation falls, price pressure is sticky (for example in rents and wages). For the Fed that is a reason to wait with rate cuts.

What is it connected with?

Strongly linked to wages, rents and the labour market. Important for rate expectations and therefore for bonds, stock valuations and the dollar.

Euro area inflation (HICP, year over year)

3.80 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.60 pp · 1 year: +1.60 pp

Change in period: −0.50 pp

Harmonised consumer price inflation in the euro area; the ECB targets 2%.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The euro area inflation rate based on the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP), compared with the same month a year ago. The ECB targets 2%.

What can it signal?

Above 2% tends to mean high ECB rates, below it rate cuts. A wide gap to US inflation can move the EUR/USD exchange rate.

What is it connected with?

Determines ECB policy and therefore German Bunds, savings rates and European stocks. Energy prices (oil and gas) have a particularly strong effect on inflation in Europe.

US core PCE inflation (year over year)

3.10 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.10 pp · 1 year: +0.30 pp

Change in period: −0.60 pp

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge; its 2% target refers to this measure.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

Core inflation based on the PCE index (personal consumption expenditures), excluding energy and food. This is the measure the Fed's 2% target officially refers to.

What can it signal?

Because the Fed watches exactly this number, it often matters more for rate decisions than the better known CPI. A decline toward 2% opens the door to rate cuts.

What is it connected with?

Usually runs a little below core CPI. Important for rate expectations, bond yields, the dollar and so indirectly for stocks and crypto.

10-year inflation expectations (breakeven)

2.35 %

as of Oct 29, 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: +0.05 pp

Change in period: −0.09 pp

The inflation rate the bond market prices in for the next ten years.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The inflation rate the bond market expects over the next ten years. It is the difference between normal and inflation-protected US government bonds.

What can it signal?

If it rises clearly above 2.5%, the market trusts the Fed less to keep inflation under control. A sharp fall can point to recession fears or falling commodity prices.

What is it connected with?

Closely linked to oil, commodities and gold. Together with the real yield it roughly adds up to the normal 10-year yield.

US PCE inflation (headline, year over year)

3.60 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.20 pp · 1 year: +0.80 pp

Change in period: +0.10 pp

The broad consumer price measure the Fed uses for its 2% target, including food and energy.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The price increase of all consumer spending in the US (Personal Consumption Expenditures), compared with a year earlier. Unlike the CPI it also covers spending paid on behalf of households, such as parts of health care costs.

What can it signal?

The Fed's 2% target refers to exactly this index. Well above it, the Fed tends to keep rates high; close to 2%, rate cuts become more likely.

What is it connected with?

Closely linked to the CPI, core PCE inflation, the policy rate and bond yields. Important for every rate-sensitive asset, from technology stocks to gold.

US producer prices (PPI final demand, year over year)

6.30 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.70 pp · 1 year: +3.30 pp

Change in period: +4.50 pp

Prices companies receive for their goods and services; often an early hint for consumer inflation.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The change in US producer prices compared with a year earlier: what companies receive for their goods and services before they reach consumers.

What can it signal?

Rising producer prices often show up in consumer prices a few months later. Falling ones point to easing price pressure. Sharply rising costs can also squeeze companies' profit margins.

What is it connected with?

Linked to commodity prices (oil, metals, agriculture), the US dollar and consumer inflation. Important for industrial and consumer goods companies whose margins depend on passing higher costs on.

US shelter inflation (rents, year over year)

3.20 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.20 pp · 1 year: −0.40 pp

Change in period: −3.90 pp

Housing costs make up about a third of the CPI and react to rents with a long delay.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The inflation of housing costs in the US CPI (rents and the estimated rent of owner-occupied homes), compared with a year earlier.

What can it signal?

With about a third of the CPI, shelter is the largest block and reacts very slowly: market rents feed through with a delay of 12 to 18 months. When this rate falls, core inflation usually falls too.

What is it connected with?

Linked to house prices, mortgage rates, housing starts and core inflation. For the Fed a key reason why inflation stays high or comes down.

US food inflation (year over year)

2.50 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: −0.10 pp · 1 year: −0.60 pp

Change in period: −1.20 pp

Food prices in the CPI; linked to agricultural commodities such as wheat, sugar and coffee.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The inflation of food prices in the US CPI, at home and in restaurants, compared with a year earlier.

What can it signal?

Rising food prices hit low-income households hardest and shape how inflation feels. They react to harvests, weather, energy costs (fertiliser, transport) and wages.

What is it connected with?

Linked to agricultural commodities such as wheat, sugar and coffee, to fertiliser and energy prices and to food and agriculture companies (such as FMC, Corbion).

US energy inflation (year over year)

20.40 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +4.40 pp · 1 year: +17.50 pp

Change in period: +20.90 pp

Energy prices in the CPI: petrol, heating oil, electricity and gas. The most volatile part of inflation.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The inflation of energy prices in the US CPI: petrol, heating oil, electricity and gas, compared with a year earlier.

What can it signal?

Energy is the most volatile part of inflation. Sharp increases drive headline inflation and inflation expectations, sharp drops relieve consumers and the central bank. Core inflation deliberately leaves energy out.

What is it connected with?

Follows crude oil (Brent, WTI), petrol and natural gas prices closely. Important for energy companies, airlines (such as Wizz Air), chemicals and consumer mood.

5-year inflation expectations (breakeven)

2.47 %

as of Oct 29, 2026 · 1 month: +0.13 pp · 1 year: +0.10 pp

Change in period: +0.07 pp

The average inflation the bond market expects over the next five years.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The average inflation the bond market expects over the next five years, calculated from the gap between regular and inflation-protected 5-year Treasuries.

What can it signal?

Well above 2.5%, the market fears persistent inflation and the Fed tends to be cautious about cutting rates. A sharp fall means the market expects a slowdown or even deflation.

What is it connected with?

Reacts strongly to oil prices and growth expectations. Linked to gold, commodities, the 10-year breakeven rate and the real yield.

5y5y forward inflation expectation

2.23 %

as of Oct 29, 2026 · 1 month: −0.13 pp · 1 year: ±0.00 pp

Change in period: −0.25 pp

Expected inflation for the five years starting five years from now; shows whether markets trust the Fed long term.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The expected average inflation for the period from five to ten years ahead, derived from bonds. It largely filters out short-term effects such as oil price shocks.

What can it signal?

Central banks watch it closely: near 2 to 2.5%, the market trusts that the Fed has inflation under control in the long run. A lasting rise means inflation expectations are losing their anchor, which usually forces higher rates.

What is it connected with?

Linked to long-term yields, gold and confidence in the central bank. An important backdrop for long-term investment decisions.

1-year expected inflation (Cleveland Fed model)

2.98 %

as of October 2026 · 1 month: +0.32 pp · 1 year: +0.25 pp

Change in period: +0.21 pp

Inflation expected for the next 12 months, estimated from bond yields, inflation swaps and surveys.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The inflation expected for the next 12 months, estimated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland from bond yields, inflation swaps and surveys.

What can it signal?

Shows what inflation markets and consumers expect in the short run. Rising expectations can feed themselves, because companies raise prices and workers ask for higher pay sooner. Falling expectations give the Fed room to cut rates.

What is it connected with?

Linked to petrol and food prices, consumer inflation and the Fed's next rate decisions.

US sticky-price core inflation (Atlanta Fed, year over year)

2.78 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.08 pp · 1 year: −0.55 pp

Change in period: −2.17 pp

Prices that change only rarely, such as rents, insurance and services. Shows how persistent inflation is.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

Inflation of prices that change only rarely, such as rents, insurance, doctor visits or haircuts. The Atlanta Fed calculates it from the consumer price index data.

What can it signal?

Because these prices are adjusted rarely, they carry companies' expectations for the future. If this rate stays high, inflation is stubborn and the Fed tends to cut late.

What is it connected with?

Linked to wages, rents, services inflation and the Fed's rate path. Important for bonds and rate-sensitive stocks.

US median CPI (Cleveland Fed, year over year)

2.60 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: −0.90 pp

Change in period: −2.80 pp

The price change of the item in the middle of all CPI categories. Filters out extreme moves in single goods.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The Cleveland Fed ranks all categories of the consumer price index by their price change and takes the one in the middle. That way outliers such as a sudden jump in petrol do not count.

What can it signal?

If median inflation is clearly above 2%, price pressure is broad based and not just a problem of a few goods. When it falls, inflation is cooling across the board.

What is it connected with?

Linked to core inflation, wages and the Fed's rate decisions.

US trimmed mean PCE inflation (Dallas Fed, year over year)

2.26 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.06 pp · 1 year: −0.50 pp

Change in period: −1.46 pp

PCE inflation without the categories with the most extreme price changes; a robust gauge of the underlying trend.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The Dallas Fed removes the categories with the most extreme price changes, up and down, from PCE inflation and calculates with the rest. The result shows the underlying trend.

What can it signal?

As the Fed measures its 2% target with PCE inflation, this reading is a good guide to how close it really is. A decline towards 2% makes rate cuts more likely.

What is it connected with?

Linked to core PCE inflation, median CPI and the Fed's policy rate.

US services inflation excl. energy (year over year)

3.20 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.20 pp · 1 year: −0.30 pp

Change in period: −2.50 pp

Prices of services such as rent, insurance, travel and health care. Closely linked to wages and watched by the Fed.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How fast prices of services excluding energy rise: rent, insurance, travel, restaurants, health care and education. They are the largest part of the consumer basket.

What can it signal?

Services are mostly labour, so their prices follow wages. If this rate stays high, overall inflation stays sticky even when goods get cheaper.

What is it connected with?

Linked to wage growth, shelter inflation and the labour market. Important for the Fed's rate path and therefore for bonds and stocks.

US import prices (year over year)

8.10 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +1.40 pp · 1 year: +8.20 pp

Change in period: +9.60 pp

What the US pays for imported goods. Driven by the dollar, oil prices and tariffs.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The change in prices of goods the US buys from abroad, compared with a year earlier.

What can it signal?

Rising import prices often reach consumers a few months later. A strong dollar pushes import prices down; a weak dollar, higher oil prices or tariffs push them up.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the US dollar, oil prices, tariffs, producer prices and consumer inflation. Important for retailers that import a lot, such as Best Buy or Wayfair.

US unit labour costs (YoY, quarterly)

1.40 %

as of Apr 1, 2026 · 1 month: +1.00 pp · 1 year: −0.60 pp

Change in period: −1.00 pp

Wage costs per unit of output. When they rise faster than about 2 % a year, companies tend to pass them on in prices or lose margin.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The wage cost of producing one unit of output, as the change from a year earlier. It rises when wages grow faster than productivity.

What can it signal?

When unit labour costs rise clearly above about 2 % a year, companies have to raise prices or accept lower profits. That makes them an early sign of sticky inflation and of pressure on profit margins.

What is it connected with?

Linked to productivity, hourly earnings, core inflation, corporate profit margins and therefore the Fed's rate decisions.

US core producer prices (final demand less food and energy, YoY)

5.00 %

US housing starts (annual rate)

1,221 k

as of September 2026 · 1 month: −67 k · 1 year: −98 k

Change in period: −148 k

New homes started, in thousands per year. Housing reacts early to interest rates.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The number of new homes and apartments started in the US, at an annual rate, in thousands.

What can it signal?

Housing is one of the first sectors to react to rate changes. Rising starts show confidence and affordable financing; a sharp drop is often an early warning sign for the economy.

What is it connected with?

Linked to mortgage rates, building permits, demand for lumber, copper and steel, and to home improvement and furniture retailers.

US building permits (annual rate)

1,398 k

as of September 2026 · 1 month: −5 k · 1 year: −46 k

Change in period: −132 k

Approved new homes, in thousands per year; a leading indicator for construction.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The number of approved new homes and apartments in the US, at an annual rate, in thousands.

What can it signal?

Permits come before construction starts and are therefore a leading indicator: when they rise, more building usually follows. A lasting decline announces a slowdown in construction.

What is it connected with?

Linked to housing starts, mortgage rates and construction employment.

US new home sales (annual rate)

676 k

as of September 2026 · 1 month: −4 k · 1 year: −38 k

Change in period: −6 k

Newly built single-family homes sold, in thousands per year.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The number of newly built single-family homes sold in the US, at an annual rate, in thousands.

What can it signal?

New home sales react quickly to mortgage rates and consumer confidence. Rising sales support builders and follow-on purchases (furniture, electronics), falling sales show weaker demand.

What is it connected with?

Linked to mortgage rates, house prices and consumer stocks such as Wayfair or Best Buy.

US house prices (FHFA, year over year)

2.40 %

as of August 2026 · 1 month: −0.10 pp · 1 year: −0.30 pp

Change in period: −3.00 pp

Price change of US single-family homes; the largest asset of most households.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The change in US single-family house prices compared with a year earlier, from the FHFA house price index.

What can it signal?

Rising house prices make owners wealthier and support spending (wealth effect). Falling prices hurt banks and consumption, as in the 2008 financial crisis. House prices feed into shelter inflation with a delay.

What is it connected with?

Linked to mortgage rates, shelter inflation, banks and consumption as a whole.

US personal saving rate

3.80 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: −0.20 pp · 1 year: −1.30 pp

Change in period: −2.20 pp

Share of disposable income households save. A low rate leaves little buffer for spending.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The share of disposable income US households save, in percent.

What can it signal?

A high saving rate is a buffer for harder times but slows spending. A very low rate means households have few reserves, so spending becomes fragile when jobs are lost or prices rise.

What is it connected with?

Linked to real consumer spending, consumer credit, wages and consumer stocks.

US consumer credit (year over year)

2.70 %

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +0.10 pp · 1 year: +2.60 pp

Change in period: −1.40 pp

Growth of credit card and car loans. Fast growth can support spending, but also means rising debt.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The change in US consumer credit compared with a year earlier: credit cards, car loans and student loans, excluding mortgages.

What can it signal?

Strong credit growth supports spending in the short run but can signal financial strain when wages do not keep up. A slump shows that banks are getting more cautious or households are saving.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the saving rate, bank loans, interest rates and financial stocks such as PayPal, Robinhood or card issuers.

US vehicle sales (annualised)

16.38 mn

as of September 2026 · 1 month: −3.5 % · 1 year: −3.4 %

Change in period: +1.2 %

New cars and light trucks sold in the US, in millions per year (BEA). Big-ticket purchases react early to rates and confidence.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How many new cars and light trucks are sold in the US, scaled up to a year, in millions of units.

What can it signal?

Cars are big purchases, usually bought on credit, so sales react early to higher rates and falling consumer confidence. A clear decline has often preceded a recession.

What is it connected with?

Linked to loan rates, consumer credit, carmakers and suppliers, and metals such as aluminium and copper.

US household debt service ratio (quarterly)

11.11 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: −0.05 pp · 1 year: −0.01 pp

Change in period: +0.53 pp

Share of disposable income households spend on interest and repayments. Higher means less room to spend.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The share of US households' disposable income that goes to interest and repayments on mortgages and consumer loans.

What can it signal?

A low ratio means households have room for spending and new loans. When it rises, for example because of higher rates, less money is left to spend and the risk of defaults grows.

What is it connected with?

Linked to mortgage rates, consumer credit, delinquencies and consumer spending.

US credit card delinquency rate (quarterly)

2.85 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: −0.06 pp · 1 year: −0.19 pp

Change in period: +0.10 pp

Share of credit card balances at banks that are behind on payments. An early sign of stretched consumers.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The share of credit card balances at US banks where payment is at least 30 days overdue.

What can it signal?

Credit cards are often the first thing households stop paying. Rising delinquencies show financially stretched consumers and can announce weaker spending.

What is it connected with?

Linked to consumer spending, consumer credit, unemployment and financial names such as PayPal or Robinhood.

US mortgage delinquency rate (quarterly)

1.86 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: −0.02 pp · 1 year: +0.08 pp

Change in period: +0.14 pp

Share of residential mortgages at banks that are behind on payments.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The share of residential mortgages at US banks where payment is at least 30 days overdue.

What can it signal?

This rate climbed sharply before the 2008 financial crisis. A low reading shows solid households; a clear rise would be a warning sign for banks and the housing market.

What is it connected with?

Linked to house prices, unemployment, mortgage rates and bank stocks.

US new homes for sale (months of supply)

8.40

as of September 2026 · 1 month: −1.2 % · 1 year: +2.4 %

Change in period: +9.1 %

How many months it would take to sell all new homes on the market at the current pace. Above about 6 points to a buyer's market.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How many months it would take, at the current sales pace, to sell all new homes for sale in the US.

What can it signal?

Below about 4 months supply is tight and prices tend to rise. Above about 6 months there are too many homes; builders cut prices and build less.

What is it connected with?

Linked to new home sales, housing starts, mortgage rates and builder and home furnishing stocks such as Wayfair.

US rental vacancy rate (quarterly)

7.60 %

US federal debt (total public debt)

39.46 tn USD

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: +1.0 % · 1 year: +9.0 %

Change in period: +22.1 %

Total debt of the US federal government, in USD trillion.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The total debt of the US federal government, in USD trillion, quarterly.

What can it signal?

Debt grows almost without pause. What matters is how fast compared with the economy and how expensive the financing is. A rapid increase raises the supply of Treasuries and can push long-term rates up.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the debt ratio, interest costs, the 30-year yield, the US dollar and gold and Bitcoin, which some investors see as a hedge against government debt.

US federal debt in percent of GDP

121.19 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: −1.25 pp · 1 year: +2.97 pp

Change in period: +3.76 pp

Debt compared with the size of the economy; the most common measure of how sustainable debt is.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

US federal debt relative to annual economic output (GDP), in percent.

What can it signal?

The debt ratio shows how sustainable the debt is. A lasting rise can make investors demand higher rates and shrinks the room for stimulus in a crisis. Strong growth and inflation lower the ratio, recessions raise it.

What is it connected with?

Linked to interest costs, the budget deficit, long-term yields and US credit ratings.

US federal interest payments (annual rate)

1.33 tn USD

as of Q3 2026 · 1 month: +3.8 % · 1 year: +7.4 %

Change in period: +37.7 %

What the US government pays in interest per year, in USD trillion. Rises with debt and rates.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The annual interest payments of the US federal government, annualised from quarterly data, in USD trillion.

What can it signal?

With higher rates and growing debt, interest costs rise sharply and now exceed major budget items such as defence. Very high interest costs can strain public finances and fuel debates about rate cuts or inflation as a way out.

What is it connected with?

Linked to government debt, the policy rate, yields, the budget deficit and confidence in Treasuries.

US budget balance in percent of GDP (yearly)

-5.75 %

Germany inflation (HICP, year over year)

3.30 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.40 pp · 1 year: +1.00 pp

Change in period: −1.00 pp

Consumer prices in Germany by the EU-harmonised method (Eurostat). The ECB aims for 2 % in the euro area as a whole.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much consumer prices in Germany rose compared with the same month a year earlier, measured by the EU-harmonised method (HICP) so countries can be compared.

What can it signal?

Inflation well above 2 % erodes savings and makes the ECB lean towards higher rates. Below 2 % gives the ECB room to cut. As the largest economy, Germany carries a lot of weight in euro area inflation.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the ECB deposit rate, German Bund yields, wages, energy prices (gas, oil) and the euro. Important for German stocks and the DAX.

France inflation (HICP, year over year)

3.40 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.80 pp · 1 year: +2.30 pp

Change in period: −2.30 pp

Consumer prices in France, the euro area's second-largest economy (Eurostat).

Explanation

What does the chart show?

France's inflation rate by the EU-harmonised method: how much prices rose compared with the same month a year earlier.

What can it signal?

Together with Germany and Italy, France drives most of euro area inflation. When countries diverge strongly, it gets harder for the ECB to set one rate that suits everyone.

What is it connected with?

Linked to euro area inflation, the ECB rate, French government bonds and French stocks such as Teleperformance.

Italy inflation (HICP, year over year)

4.20 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +1.00 pp · 1 year: +2.50 pp

Change in period: −1.40 pp

Consumer prices in Italy, the euro area's third-largest economy (Eurostat).

Explanation

What does the chart show?

Italy's inflation rate by the EU-harmonised method compared with the same month a year earlier.

What can it signal?

Italy is sensitive to interest rates because of its high public debt. High inflation forces the ECB to raise rates, which increases Italy's interest burden.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the Italy vs. Germany yield spread, the ECB rate and European bank stocks.

Germany real GDP growth (year over year)

1.00 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: +0.30 pp · 1 year: +0.60 pp

Change in period: +1.80 pp

Price-adjusted economic output of Germany, quarterly (Eurostat). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

By how many percent Germany's economic output (GDP), adjusted for prices, is above or below the level a year earlier. Published quarterly.

What can it signal?

Values below zero mean the economy is shrinking. Germany depends heavily on industry and exports and therefore reacts early to weakness in China and world trade.

What is it connected with?

Linked to German exports, energy prices, the ECB rate, the euro and German industrial and car stocks.

Euro area real GDP growth (year over year)

1.20 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: +0.60 pp · 1 year: −0.20 pp

Change in period: +0.70 pp

Price-adjusted economic output of the euro area, quarterly (Eurostat).

Explanation

What does the chart show?

Price-adjusted growth of the combined economic output of all euro countries compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

Weak growth argues for lower ECB rates and often a weaker euro. Strong growth supports European stocks and corporate earnings.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the ECB rate, EUR/USD, European stocks and growth in Germany.

Germany unemployment rate (ILO definition)

4.00 %

as of August 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: +0.20 pp

Change in period: +0.90 pp

Share of the labour force without a job, by the internationally comparable ILO method (OECD). Lower than the national figure of the Federal Employment Agency.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The share of people in Germany who want to work but have no job, counted by the international ILO method, which is why it is lower than the well-known figure of the Federal Employment Agency.

What can it signal?

If the rate rises for several months, the economy is cooling and people spend more carefully. A tight labour market, on the other hand, pushes up wages and thereby inflation.

What is it connected with?

Linked to German growth, consumer spending, wages and inflation.

France unemployment rate (ILO definition)

8.20 %

as of August 2026 · 1 month: −0.10 pp · 1 year: +0.40 pp

Change in period: +0.70 pp

Share of the French labour force without a job (OECD, harmonised).

Explanation

What does the chart show?

France's unemployment rate by the internationally comparable ILO method.

What can it signal?

France traditionally has higher unemployment than Germany. The direction matters more than the level: a rise points to a weaker economy.

What is it connected with?

Linked to euro area growth, French consumer spending and French stocks.

Italy unemployment rate (ILO definition)

6.20 %

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +0.20 pp · 1 year: +0.50 pp

Change in period: −1.40 pp

Share of the Italian labour force without a job (OECD, harmonised).

Explanation

What does the chart show?

Italy's unemployment rate by the internationally comparable ILO method.

What can it signal?

Falling unemployment in Italy shows a robust economy in the south of the euro area and usually calms the bond market too.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the Italy vs. Germany yield spread, Italian banks and euro area growth.

German exports (monthly, USD)

157.4 bn USD

as of July 2026 · 1 month: −0.7 % · 1 year: +4.2 %

Change in period: +9.8 %

Value of goods Germany sells abroad each month, converted to US dollars (OECD). The export engine of Europe's largest economy.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The value of all goods Germany sells abroad in one month, converted into US dollars.

What can it signal?

Germany earns a large part of its wealth with exports (cars, machinery, chemicals). Falling exports show weaker demand from China, the US or Europe. Because the figure is in dollars, the EUR/USD exchange rate also affects it.

What is it connected with?

Linked to German growth, China, world trade, EUR/USD and German industrial and car stocks.

German trade balance (monthly, USD)

21.6 bn USD

as of July 2026 · 1 month: +4.4 bn USD · 1 year: +4.2 bn USD

Change in period: +2.9 bn USD

Exports minus imports of goods (OECD). Germany usually runs a large surplus; a shrinking surplus signals weaker foreign demand.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The difference between what Germany exports and what it imports. A positive value is a surplus.

What can it signal?

A large surplus shows a competitive industry but also draws criticism from the US. If the surplus shrinks because exports fall, it is a warning sign for industry. It also shrinks when energy imports surge, as in 2022.

What is it connected with?

Linked to exports, energy prices, tariffs and trade conflicts, and the euro.

Spread Italy vs. Germany (10-year yields, monthly)

+0.80 pp

as of August 2026 · 1 month: −0.01 pp · 1 year: −0.06 pp

Change in period: −0.88 pp

How much more Italy pays than Germany to borrow for 10 years. The euro area's classic stress gauge.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How many percentage points more interest Italy pays on a 10-year government bond than Germany, the euro area's safest borrower.

What can it signal?

A widening spread signals worries about Italy's debt or the cohesion of the euro area (as in the euro crisis of 2011/2012). A narrowing spread signals confidence. If it jumps sharply, the ECB often steps in.

What is it connected with?

Linked to European bank stocks, the euro, Italian politics and the ECB.

Spread France vs. Germany (10-year yields, monthly)

+1.01 pp

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.16 pp · 1 year: +0.18 pp

Change in period: +0.43 pp

The extra yield on French government bonds over German Bunds; rises with political or budget worries in France.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The extra yield France pays on 10-year government bonds compared with Germany.

What can it signal?

For a long time the gap was very small. When it widens, investors worry about France's budget deficit or political situation. That can weigh on French banks and stocks.

What is it connected with?

Linked to French banks and stocks, the euro and the Italian spread.

UK 10-year gilt yield (monthly)

5.24 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.25 pp · 1 year: +0.55 pp

Change in period: +0.82 pp

The long-term interest rate in the United Kingdom (OECD).

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The yield on a 10-year British government bond (gilt), the long-term interest rate in the UK.

What can it signal?

Rising yields show higher inflation expectations or doubts about fiscal policy, as in the gilt crisis of autumn 2022. They make mortgages more expensive and weigh on British stocks.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the British pound (GBP/USD), the overnight rate, US yields and the UK housing market.

UK overnight interbank rate (monthly)

3.73 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: −0.00 pp · 1 year: −0.24 pp

Change in period: −1.45 pp

The overnight rate in the UK money market (OECD), which closely follows the Bank of England's policy rate.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The rate at which banks in the UK lend to each other overnight. It follows the Bank of England's policy rate very closely and therefore shows its course.

What can it signal?

When it rises, the Bank of England is tightening against inflation. When it falls, it is easing to support the economy.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the pound, UK yields, mortgages and the comparison with the Fed and the ECB.

UK real GDP growth (year over year)

1.20 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: +0.30 pp · 1 year: −0.10 pp

Change in period: +0.70 pp

Price-adjusted economic output of the United Kingdom, quarterly (IMF).

Explanation

What does the chart show?

Price-adjusted growth of the British economy compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

The UK is a large services and finance economy. Weak growth argues for rate cuts by the Bank of England and often a weaker pound.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the pound, British stocks and yields and trade with the EU.

UK unemployment rate (ILO definition)

4.90 %

as of June 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: +0.20 pp

Change in period: +0.50 pp

Share of the British labour force without a job (OECD, harmonised).

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The UK unemployment rate by the internationally comparable ILO method.

What can it signal?

A rising rate shows a cooling economy and makes Bank of England rate cuts more likely.

What is it connected with?

Linked to UK growth, wages, inflation and the pound.

Swiss 10-year government bond yield (monthly)

0.59 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.12 pp · 1 year: +0.39 pp

Change in period: −0.50 pp

Switzerland's long-term rate, one of the lowest in the world; a gauge of safe-haven demand (OECD).

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The yield on a 10-year Swiss government bond. Switzerland is considered especially safe, so its rates are very low and were even negative for years.

What can it signal?

In crises investors buy Swiss bonds and francs and the yield falls. When it rises, there is less fear in the market or inflation is picking up in Switzerland too.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the Swiss franc (USD/CHF), gold as a safe haven and Swiss stocks.

Euro area core inflation (HICP excluding energy and food)

2.50 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.10 pp · 1 year: +0.10 pp

Change in period: −2.00 pp

Price increases in the euro area without the volatile energy and food prices (Eurostat). The ECB watches it to judge how persistent inflation is.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much consumer prices in the euro area rose compared with a year earlier, without the volatile prices of energy and food.

What can it signal?

Inflation close to the 2% target gives the central bank room to cut rates, a tailwind for equities and bonds. Inflation well above the target forces higher rates for longer. Core inflation moves slowly and shows how deeply price pressure has spread.

What is it connected with?

Connected with the ECB's interest rate decisions, wages, energy prices and the euro. High inflation weighs on consumer spending and on the valuation of growth stocks.

Spain inflation (HICP, year over year)

5.00 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.40 pp · 1 year: +2.00 pp

Change in period: +1.70 pp

How much consumer prices in Spain rose within a year (Eurostat). The central bank aims for about 2%.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much consumer prices in Spain rose compared with a year earlier.

What can it signal?

Inflation close to the 2% target gives the central bank room to cut rates, a tailwind for equities and bonds. Inflation well above the target forces higher rates for longer. Energy prices can move this number a lot from month to month.

What is it connected with?

Connected with the ECB's interest rate decisions, wages, energy prices and the euro. High inflation weighs on consumer spending and on the valuation of growth stocks.

Poland inflation (HICP, year over year)

4.00 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.50 pp · 1 year: +1.10 pp

Change in period: −3.70 pp

How much consumer prices in Poland rose within a year (Eurostat). The central bank aims for about 2%.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much consumer prices in Poland rose compared with a year earlier.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with the ECB's interest rate decisions, wages, energy prices and the euro. High inflation weighs on consumer spending and on the valuation of growth stocks.

France real GDP growth (year over year)

0.50 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: −0.20 pp · 1 year: −0.30 pp

Change in period: −1.50 pp

Price-adjusted economic output of France, quarterly (Eurostat). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much the price-adjusted economic output of France grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

Growth well above zero supports company profits and the stock market. Two weak quarters in a row or a fall below zero point to a recession. Because GDP is published with a delay, it confirms a trend rather than forecasting it.

What is it connected with?

Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for France.

Italy real GDP growth (year over year)

1.00 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: +0.20 pp · 1 year: +0.50 pp

Change in period: +0.50 pp

Price-adjusted economic output of Italy, quarterly (Eurostat). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much the price-adjusted economic output of Italy grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for Italy.

Spain real GDP growth (year over year)

2.60 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: ±0.00 pp

Change in period: +0.70 pp

Price-adjusted economic output of Spain, quarterly (Eurostat). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much the price-adjusted economic output of Spain grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for Spain.

Spain unemployment rate (monthly)

10.00 %

as of August 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: −0.50 pp

Change in period: −2.00 pp

Share of the labour force in Spain that is looking for work (OECD). A clear rise is an early sign of a weakening economy.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The share of people in the labour force of Spain who are looking for work, in percent.

What can it signal?

What matters most is the direction: a clear rise over a few months often comes early in a downturn, a steady fall shows a strong economy. A very low level can also mean wage pressure and therefore inflation.

What is it connected with?

Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in Spain.

Netherlands unemployment rate (monthly)

4.00 %

as of August 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: +0.10 pp

Change in period: +0.40 pp

Share of the labour force in the Netherlands that is looking for work (OECD). A clear rise is an early sign of a weakening economy.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The share of people in the labour force of the Netherlands who are looking for work, in percent.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in the Netherlands.

3.19 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.17 pp · 1 year: +0.63 pp

Change in period: +0.30 pp

The long-term interest rate of Sweden (OECD). Rising yields make borrowing more expensive and compete with equities for investors' money.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The yield investors earn per year on a 10-year government bond of Sweden, as a monthly average. It is the country's long-term interest rate.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with the central bank's policy rate, inflation, government debt and the currency. For the stock market of Sweden, rising long-term rates are a headwind, especially for growth stocks, real estate and utilities, while banks often benefit.

USD/SEK (Swedish kronor per US dollar)

9.9237

as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: +0.2 % · 1 year: +5.6 %

Change in period: −9.7 %

The currency of Sweden against the dollar. Rising = weaker local currency.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The exchange rate USD/SEK: how many units of the local currency one US dollar costs.

What can it signal?

A rising line means a weaker currency for Sweden. A weak currency helps exporters, but makes imports more expensive and can drive money out of the country. A sharp, fast depreciation is often a warning sign for the local stock and bond market.

What is it connected with?

Connected with interest rate differences to the US, the US dollar overall, commodity prices and the risk appetite of global investors. For investors from abroad, the currency adds to or subtracts from the return of local shares.

2.30 %

100.4 bn USD

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +2.2 % · 1 year: +67.8 %

Change in period: +90.2 %

Value of the goods South Korea sells abroad each month (OECD). Because Korea exports chips, cars and ships to the whole world, it is an early gauge of global trade.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods South Korea sells abroad each month, in US dollars.

What can it signal?

Rising exports show strong global demand, especially for semiconductors and electronics; a clear fall compared with a year earlier often comes early in a global slowdown.

What is it connected with?

Connected with global trade, technology stocks, China, the US economy and the won. A useful early read on the earnings of export-heavy companies in Asia.

South Korea real GDP growth (year over year)

3.70 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: −0.10 pp · 1 year: +2.90 pp

Change in period: +2.90 pp

Price-adjusted economic output of South Korea, quarterly (IMF). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much the price-adjusted economic output of South Korea grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for South Korea.

India 10-year government bond yield (monthly)

7.06 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.22 pp · 1 year: +0.47 pp

Change in period: −0.11 pp

The long-term interest rate of India (OECD). Rising yields make borrowing more expensive and compete with equities for investors' money.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The yield investors earn per year on a 10-year government bond of India, as a monthly average. It is the country's long-term interest rate.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with the central bank's policy rate, inflation, government debt and the currency. For the stock market of India, rising long-term rates are a headwind, especially for growth stocks, real estate and utilities, while banks often benefit.

India short-term interest rate (monthly)

5.50 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: −0.25 pp

Change in period: −1.25 pp

The overnight or call money rate in India (OECD), which closely follows the central bank's policy rate.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The short-term money market rate in India, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.

What can it signal?

A falling rate means the central bank is easing to support growth, which is usually a tailwind for equities. A rising rate means it is fighting inflation or defending the currency, which tightens financial conditions.

What is it connected with?

Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in India.

USD/SGD (Singapore dollars per US dollar)

1.2782

as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: −0.1 % · 1 year: −1.6 %

Change in period: −6.6 %

The currency of Singapore against the dollar. Rising = weaker local currency.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The exchange rate USD/SGD: how many units of the local currency one US dollar costs.

What can it signal?

A rising line means a weaker currency for Singapore. A weak currency helps exporters, but makes imports more expensive and can drive money out of the country. A sharp, fast depreciation is often a warning sign for the local stock and bond market.

What is it connected with?

USD/TWD (Taiwan dollars per US dollar)

32.5400

as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: +2.6 % · 1 year: +5.7 %

Change in period: +0.7 %

The currency of Taiwan against the dollar. Rising = weaker local currency.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The exchange rate USD/TWD: how many units of the local currency one US dollar costs.

What can it signal?

A rising line means a weaker currency for Taiwan. A weak currency helps exporters, but makes imports more expensive and can drive money out of the country. A sharp, fast depreciation is often a warning sign for the local stock and bond market.

What is it connected with?

USD/THB (Thai baht per US dollar)

33.7600

as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: +1.0 % · 1 year: +3.1 %

Change in period: −7.1 %

The currency of Thailand against the dollar. Rising = weaker local currency.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The exchange rate USD/THB: how many units of the local currency one US dollar costs.

What can it signal?

A rising line means a weaker currency for Thailand. A weak currency helps exporters, but makes imports more expensive and can drive money out of the country. A sharp, fast depreciation is often a warning sign for the local stock and bond market.

What is it connected with?

Australia unemployment rate (monthly)

4.65 %

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +0.16 pp · 1 year: +0.43 pp

Change in period: +0.98 pp

Share of the labour force in Australia that is looking for work (OECD). A clear rise is an early sign of a weakening economy.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The share of people in the labour force of Australia who are looking for work, in percent.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in Australia.

Australia real GDP growth (year over year)

2.10 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: −0.40 pp · 1 year: +0.20 pp

Change in period: −0.10 pp

Price-adjusted economic output of Australia, quarterly (IMF). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much the price-adjusted economic output of Australia grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for Australia.

New Zealand 10-year government bond yield (monthly)

4.94 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.23 pp · 1 year: +0.65 pp

Change in period: −0.11 pp

The long-term interest rate of New Zealand (OECD). Rising yields make borrowing more expensive and compete with equities for investors' money.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The yield investors earn per year on a 10-year government bond of New Zealand, as a monthly average. It is the country's long-term interest rate.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with the central bank's policy rate, inflation, government debt and the currency. For the stock market of New Zealand, rising long-term rates are a headwind, especially for growth stocks, real estate and utilities, while banks often benefit.

NZD/USD (US dollars per New Zealand dollar)

0.5705

as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: +0.6 % · 1 year: −0.8 %

Change in period: −2.4 %

The currency of New Zealand against the dollar. Rising = stronger local currency.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The exchange rate NZD/USD: how many US dollars one unit of the local currency costs.

What can it signal?

A falling line means a weaker currency for New Zealand. A weak currency helps exporters, but makes imports more expensive and can drive money out of the country. A sharp, fast depreciation is often a warning sign for the local stock and bond market.

What is it connected with?

South Korea short-term interest rate (monthly)

3.04 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.23 pp · 1 year: +0.52 pp

Change in period: −0.55 pp

The overnight or call money rate in South Korea (OECD), which closely follows the central bank's policy rate.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The short-term money market rate in South Korea, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in South Korea.

Australia short-term interest rate (monthly)

4.35 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: +0.75 pp

Change in period: +0.25 pp

The overnight or call money rate in Australia (OECD), which closely follows the central bank's policy rate.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The short-term money market rate in Australia, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in Australia.

India exports (monthly, USD)

46.0 bn USD

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +2.8 % · 1 year: +26.1 %

Change in period: +18.1 %

Value of the goods India sells abroad each month (OECD), mainly refined fuels, pharmaceuticals, jewellery, machinery and electronics.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods India sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly refined fuels, pharmaceuticals, jewellery, machinery and electronics.

What can it signal?

Rising exports show strong demand for what the country produces and bring in foreign currency; a clear fall compared with a year earlier often comes with weaker global demand or falling commodity prices, and weighs on the currency and on export-heavy companies.

What is it connected with?

Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.

Australia exports (monthly, USD)

33.8 bn USD

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +6.5 % · 1 year: +28.1 %

Change in period: +12.8 %

Value of the goods Australia sells abroad each month (OECD), mainly iron ore, coal, gas and gold, much of it to China.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods Australia sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly iron ore, coal, gas and gold, much of it to China.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.

South Korea house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)

-0.30 %

as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: +1.30 pp · 1 year: +1.90 pp

Change in period: +8.20 pp

Residential property prices in South Korea after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in South Korea changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in South Korea.

India house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)

1.10 %

as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: −1.90 pp · 1 year: +1.00 pp

Change in period: +2.80 pp

Residential property prices in India after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in India changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in India.

Australia house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)

5.70 %

as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: +1.50 pp · 1 year: +3.70 pp

Change in period: +18.00 pp

Residential property prices in Australia after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in Australia changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Australia.

USD/MYR (Malaysian ringgit per US dollar)

4.0837

4.0 bn USD

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +3.2 bn USD · 1 year: +7.5 bn USD

Change in period: +3.3 bn USD

Goods sold abroad minus goods bought abroad each month (OECD). Above zero is a surplus. Driven mainly by oil and gas exports and trade with the US.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods Canada sells abroad minus the goods it buys abroad each month, in US dollars. Above zero is a surplus, below zero a deficit. Mainly driven by oil and gas exports and trade with the US.

What can it signal?

A growing surplus brings foreign currency into the country and usually supports the currency. A widening deficit has to be financed from abroad, which makes the currency and local markets more vulnerable when global investors turn cautious.

What is it connected with?

Connected with commodity prices, the economies of its main trading partners, the currency against the US dollar and the earnings of exporters and importers in Canada.

Mexico trade balance (exports minus imports, monthly, USD)

3.5 bn USD

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +3.6 bn USD · 1 year: +3.3 bn USD

Change in period: +3.4 bn USD

Goods sold abroad minus goods bought abroad each month (OECD). Above zero is a surplus. Driven mainly by car and electronics production for the US, which also needs many imported parts.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods Mexico sells abroad minus the goods it buys abroad each month, in US dollars. Above zero is a surplus, below zero a deficit. Mainly driven by car and electronics production for the US, which also needs many imported parts.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with commodity prices, the economies of its main trading partners, the currency against the US dollar and the earnings of exporters and importers in Mexico.

Brazil trade balance (exports minus imports, monthly, USD)

8.2 bn USD

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +1.7 bn USD · 1 year: +4.4 bn USD

Change in period: −1.1 bn USD

Goods sold abroad minus goods bought abroad each month (OECD). Above zero is a surplus. Driven mainly by soybean, iron ore and oil exports, above all to China.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods Brazil sells abroad minus the goods it buys abroad each month, in US dollars. Above zero is a surplus, below zero a deficit. Mainly driven by soybean, iron ore and oil exports, above all to China.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with commodity prices, the economies of its main trading partners, the currency against the US dollar and the earnings of exporters and importers in Brazil.

Canada employment growth (year over year)

1.00 %

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +0.10 pp · 1 year: +0.10 pp

Change in period: −2.20 pp

How much the number of people in work in Canada changed within a year (OECD). Below zero, jobs are being lost.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much the number of people in work in Canada changed compared with a year earlier, in percent.

What can it signal?

Solid job growth supports incomes and consumer spending. When it slows towards zero or turns negative, the economy is cooling and a downturn often follows.

What is it connected with?

Connected with the unemployment rate, wages, consumer spending and the central bank's decisions in Canada. Weak job growth usually weighs on consumer and cyclical stocks.

Chile exports (monthly, USD)

11.2 bn USD

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +9.2 % · 1 year: +14.1 %

Change in period: +46.6 %

Value of the goods Chile sells abroad each month (OECD), mainly copper, lithium, fruit and salmon, with China as the largest buyer.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods Chile sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly copper, lithium, fruit and salmon, with China as the largest buyer.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.

Mexico house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)

4.40 %

as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: −0.70 pp · 1 year: +0.10 pp

Change in period: +0.50 pp

Residential property prices in Mexico after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in Mexico changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Mexico.

Chile house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)

2.40 %

as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: +1.00 pp · 1 year: +0.80 pp

Change in period: +5.50 pp

Residential property prices in Chile after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in Chile changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Chile.

Colombia house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)

7.00 %

as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: +0.80 pp · 1 year: +7.90 pp

Change in period: +11.80 pp

Residential property prices in Colombia after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in Colombia changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Colombia.

Peru house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)

5.20 %

as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: +0.60 pp · 1 year: +6.00 pp

Change in period: +12.40 pp

Residential property prices in Peru after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in Peru changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Peru.

8.95 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.20 pp · 1 year: −0.92 pp

Change in period: −3.12 pp

The long-term interest rate of South Africa (OECD). Rising yields make borrowing more expensive and compete with equities for investors' money.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The yield investors earn per year on a 10-year government bond of South Africa, as a monthly average. It is the country's long-term interest rate.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with the central bank's policy rate, inflation, government debt and the currency. For the stock market of South Africa, rising long-term rates are a headwind, especially for growth stocks, real estate and utilities, while banks often benefit.

South Africa short-term interest rate (monthly)

7.05 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.05 pp · 1 year: +0.05 pp

Change in period: −1.20 pp

The overnight or call money rate in South Africa (OECD), which closely follows the central bank's policy rate.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The short-term money market rate in South Africa, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in South Africa.

South Africa unemployment rate (quarterly)

33.03 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: +0.46 pp · 1 year: +0.39 pp

Change in period: +0.81 pp

Share of the labour force in South Africa that is looking for work (OECD). A clear rise is an early sign of a weakening economy.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The share of people in the labour force of South Africa who are looking for work, in percent.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in South Africa.

South Africa real GDP growth (year over year)

2.00 %

as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: +0.50 pp · 1 year: +1.60 pp

Change in period: +1.80 pp

Price-adjusted economic output of South Africa, quarterly (IMF). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much the price-adjusted economic output of South Africa grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for South Africa.

Israel 10-year government bond yield (monthly)

4.08 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.15 pp · 1 year: −0.07 pp

Change in period: +0.08 pp

The long-term interest rate of Israel (OECD). Rising yields make borrowing more expensive and compete with equities for investors' money.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The yield investors earn per year on a 10-year government bond of Israel, as a monthly average. It is the country's long-term interest rate.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with the central bank's policy rate, inflation, government debt and the currency. For the stock market of Israel, rising long-term rates are a headwind, especially for growth stocks, real estate and utilities, while banks often benefit.

Israel unemployment rate (monthly)

2.82 %

as of August 2026 · 1 month: −0.26 pp · 1 year: −0.15 pp

Change in period: −0.42 pp

Share of the labour force in Israel that is looking for work (OECD). A clear rise is an early sign of a weakening economy.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The share of people in the labour force of Israel who are looking for work, in percent.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in Israel.

Turkey unemployment rate (monthly)

7.80 %

as of August 2026 · 1 month: −0.30 pp · 1 year: −0.80 pp

Change in period: −1.40 pp

Share of the labour force in Turkey that is looking for work (OECD). A clear rise is an early sign of a weakening economy.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The share of people in the labour force of Turkey who are looking for work, in percent.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in Turkey.

Israel short-term interest rate (monthly)

3.27 %

as of September 2026 · 1 month: −0.23 pp · 1 year: −1.23 pp

Change in period: −1.48 pp

The overnight or call money rate in Israel (OECD), which closely follows the central bank's policy rate.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The short-term money market rate in Israel, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in Israel.

Turkey short-term interest rate (monthly)

35.50 %

as of August 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: −6.00 pp

Change in period: +12.00 pp

The overnight or call money rate in Turkey (OECD), which closely follows the central bank's policy rate.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The short-term money market rate in Turkey, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in Turkey.

South Africa exports (monthly, USD)

11.4 bn USD

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +3.3 % · 1 year: +17.0 %

Change in period: +25.3 %

Value of the goods South Africa sells abroad each month (OECD), mainly platinum, gold, coal, iron ore and cars.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods South Africa sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly platinum, gold, coal, iron ore and cars.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.

Israel exports (monthly, USD)

5.7 bn USD

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +3.8 % · 1 year: +19.3 %

Change in period: +12.4 %

Value of the goods Israel sells abroad each month (OECD), mainly chips, electronics, diamonds, pharmaceuticals and defence equipment.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods Israel sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly chips, electronics, diamonds, pharmaceuticals and defence equipment.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.

Turkey exports (monthly, USD)

24.6 bn USD

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +0.6 % · 1 year: +8.2 %

Change in period: +15.0 %

Value of the goods Turkey sells abroad each month (OECD), mainly cars, machinery, textiles and steel, mainly to Europe.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods Turkey sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly cars, machinery, textiles and steel, mainly to Europe.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.

South Africa house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)

2.70 %

as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: +0.90 pp · 1 year: +3.90 pp

Change in period: +6.80 pp

Residential property prices in South Africa after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in South Africa changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in South Africa.

South Africa trade balance (exports minus imports, monthly, USD)

1.5 bn USD

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +0.5 bn USD · 1 year: +1.2 bn USD

Change in period: +0.6 bn USD

Goods sold abroad minus goods bought abroad each month (OECD). Above zero is a surplus. Driven mainly by the prices of platinum, gold and coal and the import of oil.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods South Africa sells abroad minus the goods it buys abroad each month, in US dollars. Above zero is a surplus, below zero a deficit. Mainly driven by the prices of platinum, gold and coal and the import of oil.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with commodity prices, the economies of its main trading partners, the currency against the US dollar and the earnings of exporters and importers in South Africa.

Israel trade balance (exports minus imports, monthly, USD)

-5.3 bn USD

as of August 2026 · 1 month: −1.5 bn USD · 1 year: −2.1 bn USD

Change in period: −2.6 bn USD

Goods sold abroad minus goods bought abroad each month (OECD). Above zero is a surplus. Driven mainly by chip and technology exports against imports of fuel and consumer goods.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods Israel sells abroad minus the goods it buys abroad each month, in US dollars. Above zero is a surplus, below zero a deficit. Mainly driven by chip and technology exports against imports of fuel and consumer goods.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with commodity prices, the economies of its main trading partners, the currency against the US dollar and the earnings of exporters and importers in Israel.

Turkey trade balance (exports minus imports, monthly, USD)

-5.6 bn USD

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +0.5 bn USD · 1 year: −0.7 bn USD

Change in period: +3.7 bn USD

Goods sold abroad minus goods bought abroad each month (OECD). Above zero is a surplus. Driven mainly by energy and gold imports, which often exceed its industrial exports.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods Turkey sells abroad minus the goods it buys abroad each month, in US dollars. Above zero is a surplus, below zero a deficit. Mainly driven by energy and gold imports, which often exceed its industrial exports.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with commodity prices, the economies of its main trading partners, the currency against the US dollar and the earnings of exporters and importers in Turkey.

Israel employment growth (year over year)

1.10 %

as of August 2026 · 1 month: +0.20 pp · 1 year: +2.50 pp

Change in period: −1.70 pp

How much the number of people in work in Israel changed within a year (OECD). Below zero, jobs are being lost.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much the number of people in work in Israel changed compared with a year earlier, in percent.

What can it signal?

Solid job growth supports incomes and consumer spending. When it slows towards zero or turns negative, the economy is cooling and a downturn often follows.

What is it connected with?

Connected with the unemployment rate, wages, consumer spending and the central bank's decisions in Israel. Weak job growth usually weighs on consumer and cyclical stocks.

Turkey real GDP growth (year over year)

2.60 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: −1.70 pp

Change in period: −3.30 pp

Price-adjusted economic output of Turkey, quarterly (IMF). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much the price-adjusted economic output of Turkey grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for Turkey.

Saudi Arabia real GDP growth (year over year)

-3.70 %

as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: −6.80 pp · 1 year: −8.00 pp

Change in period: −6.00 pp

Price-adjusted economic output of Saudi Arabia, quarterly (IMF). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much the price-adjusted economic output of Saudi Arabia grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for Saudi Arabia.

Israel house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)

-3.20 %

as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: −0.50 pp · 1 year: −5.50 pp

Change in period: −9.00 pp

Residential property prices in Israel after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in Israel changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Israel.

Turkey house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)

-3.30 %

as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: −2.60 pp · 1 year: +2.30 pp

Change in period: −60.50 pp

Residential property prices in Turkey after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in Turkey changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Turkey.

Morocco house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)

-0.50 %

as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: −1.20 pp · 1 year: +1.10 pp

Change in period: +7.30 pp

Residential property prices in Morocco after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.

Explanation

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in Morocco changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Morocco.

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (data from the Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis, Chicago, Cleveland, Atlanta, Dallas and Kansas City, U.S. Treasury, BLS, BEA, Census Bureau, Department of Labor, FHFA, EIA, ECB, Eurostat, OECD, IMF, Bank of Japan and Freddie Mac). Rates of change are calculated year over year from the underlying indices; net liquidity is the Fed balance sheet minus the Treasury General Account and reverse repos. Last refreshed: Oct 30, 2026. For information only, not investment advice.