Macro dashboard: Africa & Middle East

What does the chart show?

The short-term money market rate in South Africa, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.

What can it signal?

A falling rate means the central bank is easing to support growth, which is usually a tailwind for equities. A rising rate means it is fighting inflation or defending the currency, which tightens financial conditions.

What is it connected with?

Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in South Africa.

What does the chart show?

The yield investors earn per year on a 10-year government bond of South Africa, as a monthly average. It is the country's long-term interest rate.

What can it signal?

Rising yields mean investors expect more inflation or demand more compensation for risk, which makes loans more expensive and weighs on equity valuations. Falling yields usually point to lower inflation, expected rate cuts or a flight to safety.

What is it connected with?

Connected with the central bank's policy rate, inflation, government debt and the currency. For the stock market of South Africa, rising long-term rates are a headwind, especially for growth stocks, real estate and utilities, while banks often benefit.

What does the chart show?

How much the price-adjusted economic output of South Africa grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

Growth well above zero supports company profits and the stock market. Two weak quarters in a row or a fall below zero point to a recession. Because GDP is published with a delay, it confirms a trend rather than forecasting it.

What is it connected with?

Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for South Africa.

What does the chart show?

The share of people in the labour force of South Africa who are looking for work, in percent.

What can it signal?

What matters most is the direction: a clear rise over a few months often comes early in a downturn, a steady fall shows a strong economy. A very low level can also mean wage pressure and therefore inflation.

What is it connected with?

Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in South Africa.

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods South Africa sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly platinum, gold, coal, iron ore and cars.

What can it signal?

Rising exports show strong demand for what the country produces and bring in foreign currency; a clear fall compared with a year earlier often comes with weaker global demand or falling commodity prices, and weighs on the currency and on export-heavy companies.

What is it connected with?

Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in South Africa changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in South Africa.

What does the chart show?

The exchange rate USD/ZAR: how many units of the local currency one US dollar costs.

What can it signal?

A rising line means a weaker currency for South Africa. A weak currency helps exporters, but makes imports more expensive and can drive money out of the country. A sharp, fast depreciation is often a warning sign for the local stock and bond market.

What is it connected with?

Connected with interest rate differences to the US, the US dollar overall, commodity prices and the risk appetite of global investors. For investors from abroad, the currency adds to or subtracts from the return of local shares.

What does the chart show?

The short-term money market rate in Israel, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.

What can it signal?

A falling rate means the central bank is easing to support growth, which is usually a tailwind for equities. A rising rate means it is fighting inflation or defending the currency, which tightens financial conditions.

What is it connected with?

Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in Israel.

What does the chart show?

The yield investors earn per year on a 10-year government bond of Israel, as a monthly average. It is the country's long-term interest rate.

What can it signal?

Rising yields mean investors expect more inflation or demand more compensation for risk, which makes loans more expensive and weighs on equity valuations. Falling yields usually point to lower inflation, expected rate cuts or a flight to safety.

What is it connected with?

Connected with the central bank's policy rate, inflation, government debt and the currency. For the stock market of Israel, rising long-term rates are a headwind, especially for growth stocks, real estate and utilities, while banks often benefit.

What does the chart show?

The share of people in the labour force of Israel who are looking for work, in percent.

What can it signal?

What matters most is the direction: a clear rise over a few months often comes early in a downturn, a steady fall shows a strong economy. A very low level can also mean wage pressure and therefore inflation.

What is it connected with?

Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in Israel.

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods Israel sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly chips, electronics, diamonds, pharmaceuticals and defence equipment.

What can it signal?

Rising exports show strong demand for what the country produces and bring in foreign currency; a clear fall compared with a year earlier often comes with weaker global demand or falling commodity prices, and weighs on the currency and on export-heavy companies.

What is it connected with?

Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.

What does the chart show?

The short-term money market rate in Turkey, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.

What can it signal?

A falling rate means the central bank is easing to support growth, which is usually a tailwind for equities. A rising rate means it is fighting inflation or defending the currency, which tightens financial conditions.

What is it connected with?

Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in Turkey.

What does the chart show?

The share of people in the labour force of Turkey who are looking for work, in percent.

What can it signal?

What matters most is the direction: a clear rise over a few months often comes early in a downturn, a steady fall shows a strong economy. A very low level can also mean wage pressure and therefore inflation.

What is it connected with?

Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in Turkey.

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods Turkey sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly cars, machinery, textiles and steel, mainly to Europe.

What can it signal?

Rising exports show strong demand for what the country produces and bring in foreign currency; a clear fall compared with a year earlier often comes with weaker global demand or falling commodity prices, and weighs on the currency and on export-heavy companies.

What is it connected with?

Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods South Africa sells abroad minus the goods it buys abroad each month, in US dollars. Above zero is a surplus, below zero a deficit. Mainly driven by the prices of platinum, gold and coal and the import of oil.

What can it signal?

A growing surplus brings foreign currency into the country and usually supports the currency. A widening deficit has to be financed from abroad, which makes the currency and local markets more vulnerable when global investors turn cautious.

What is it connected with?

Connected with commodity prices, the economies of its main trading partners, the currency against the US dollar and the earnings of exporters and importers in South Africa.

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods Israel sells abroad minus the goods it buys abroad each month, in US dollars. Above zero is a surplus, below zero a deficit. Mainly driven by chip and technology exports against imports of fuel and consumer goods.

What can it signal?

A growing surplus brings foreign currency into the country and usually supports the currency. A widening deficit has to be financed from abroad, which makes the currency and local markets more vulnerable when global investors turn cautious.

What is it connected with?

Connected with commodity prices, the economies of its main trading partners, the currency against the US dollar and the earnings of exporters and importers in Israel.

What does the chart show?

How much the number of people in work in Israel changed compared with a year earlier, in percent.

What can it signal?

Solid job growth supports incomes and consumer spending. When it slows towards zero or turns negative, the economy is cooling and a downturn often follows.

What is it connected with?

Connected with the unemployment rate, wages, consumer spending and the central bank's decisions in Israel. Weak job growth usually weighs on consumer and cyclical stocks.

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in Israel changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Israel.

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods Turkey sells abroad minus the goods it buys abroad each month, in US dollars. Above zero is a surplus, below zero a deficit. Mainly driven by energy and gold imports, which often exceed its industrial exports.

What can it signal?

A growing surplus brings foreign currency into the country and usually supports the currency. A widening deficit has to be financed from abroad, which makes the currency and local markets more vulnerable when global investors turn cautious.

What is it connected with?

Connected with commodity prices, the economies of its main trading partners, the currency against the US dollar and the earnings of exporters and importers in Turkey.

What does the chart show?

How much the price-adjusted economic output of Turkey grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

Growth well above zero supports company profits and the stock market. Two weak quarters in a row or a fall below zero point to a recession. Because GDP is published with a delay, it confirms a trend rather than forecasting it.

What is it connected with?

Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for Turkey.

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in Turkey changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Turkey.

What does the chart show?

How much the price-adjusted economic output of Saudi Arabia grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

Growth well above zero supports company profits and the stock market. Two weak quarters in a row or a fall below zero point to a recession. Because GDP is published with a delay, it confirms a trend rather than forecasting it.

What is it connected with?

Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for Saudi Arabia.

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in Morocco changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Morocco.

What does the chart show?

The price of one barrel (159 litres) of North Sea Brent crude in US dollars. Brent is the most important global oil benchmark.

What can it signal?

Sharply rising oil prices push up inflation, squeeze consumers and companies and can delay rate cuts. Sharply falling prices often point to weak demand and a cooling global economy.

What is it connected with?

Affects inflation, airlines (such as Wizz Air), chemicals and transport. Through ethanol, oil also influences the sugar price. Geopolitical crises in the Middle East often move the price strongly.

What does the chart show?

The monthly average price of Dubai crude oil in US dollars per barrel, the benchmark for oil from the Persian Gulf sold to Asia.

What can it signal?

A high price fills the budgets of Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and other Gulf states and supports their spending and stock markets; it burdens Asian importers such as India, Japan and Korea.

What is it connected with?

Linked to Brent and WTI, OPEC decisions, tensions in the Middle East, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and inflation in Asia.

What does the chart show?

The price of one barrel of US West Texas Intermediate crude in US dollars, traded in Cushing, Oklahoma.

What can it signal?

Usually moves in step with Brent. A widening gap to Brent can point to US-specific factors such as inventories or export bottlenecks. High prices feed directly into US petrol prices and consumer sentiment.

What is it connected with?

Important for US oil producers, US inflation, airlines and transport. Linked to Brent, natural gas and the US dollar.

What does the chart show?

The price of US natural gas at the Henry Hub trading point in Louisiana, in US dollars per MMBtu (a unit of energy).

What can it signal?

Natural gas is very volatile and reacts to weather (cold winters, hot summers), storage levels and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. High prices raise power, heating and fertiliser costs.

What is it connected with?

Important for utilities, chemical and fertiliser producers (such as FMC) and, through LNG exports, for energy prices in Europe.

What does the chart show?

The IMF index of world energy prices (crude oil, natural gas, coal and propane), 2016 = 100.

What can it signal?

High energy prices push up inflation and costs for companies and households in importing countries and fill the budgets of exporters. A sharp rise has often come before economic slowdowns.

What is it connected with?

Linked to inflation, central bank policy, OPEC, geopolitics in the Middle East and Russia, energy stocks and the currencies of exporting countries.

What does the chart show?

The IMF index of world food prices (cereals, vegetable oils, meat, seafood, sugar and others), 2016 = 100.

What can it signal?

Rising food prices push up inflation, especially in emerging markets where food is a large part of household spending, and can cause social unrest. Falling prices give central banks there room to cut rates.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the weather, fertiliser and energy prices, the US dollar, inflation in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn, soybeans, sugar and coffee.

What does the chart show?

The world price of wheat, in US dollars per tonne, as a monthly average from the International Monetary Fund.

What can it signal?

Wheat is a staple food. Crop failures, droughts or wars in growing regions (as in Ukraine in 2022) push the price up sharply and drive food inflation worldwide.

What is it connected with?

Linked to food inflation, fertiliser and energy prices, the US dollar and agricultural companies such as FMC.

What does the chart show?

The price of Australian thermal coal in USD per tonne (monthly average, IMF data).

What can it signal?

Coal is still a large part of power generation in Asia. High prices show tight energy supply, often together with expensive gas.

What is it connected with?

Linked to natural gas and LNG, the Australian dollar, China and steelmaking (for example Thyssenkrupp).

What does the chart show?

An index of how often newspapers in 21 countries write about economic policy uncertainty, weighted by the size of each economy. 100 is the average from 1997 to 2015.

What can it signal?

High readings come with trade wars, crises, wars and contested elections. Companies then postpone investment and hiring, and markets demand a higher risk premium. Falling uncertainty is often a tailwind for equities.

What is it connected with?

Linked to volatility, safe havens such as gold and government bonds, the US dollar and investment spending worldwide.

What does the chart show?

The trade-weighted value of the US dollar against the currencies of emerging economies such as China, Mexico, India, Brazil and Korea.

What can it signal?

A rising line means emerging market currencies are losing value. That makes their dollar debts more expensive, drives capital out and usually weighs on their stock markets. A falling dollar is a tailwind for emerging markets.

What is it connected with?

Linked to US interest rates, global risk appetite, commodity prices and capital flows into emerging markets.

What does the chart show?

The value of the US dollar against a broad basket of currencies of major trading partners, calculated by the Fed.

What can it signal?

A strong dollar makes it more expensive for the rest of the world to service dollar debt and buy commodities priced in dollars. A weaker dollar acts like an easing of global financial conditions.

What is it connected with?

Usually moves opposite to commodities (gold, oil, sugar, coffee), emerging market stocks (for example South Africa or China) and Bitcoin. For euro investors it directly affects the return on US assets.