EllTec Analysis
Macro dashboard: Americas
Canada and Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Colombia, Peru): interest rates, growth and jobs, currencies and the commodity prices the region lives from. The USA has its own view.
What it means for equities
Refers to: Canadian and Latin American equities (S&P/TSX, Bovespa, IPC, IPSA)
ShowHide
EllTec Analysis view · as of Oct 26, 2026
Neutral
The automatic check is bullish (score 60) thanks to easing short-term rates in Brazil, Mexico, Canada and Chile, strong commodity prices and a firmer real. EllTec Analysis keeps the region at neutral for now: the Brazilian runoff of 25 October, rising US yields and the weaker Mexican peso can swing markets in both directions. Energy, mining and agricultural exporters benefit from high commodity prices, while fuel importers and companies with dollar debt suffer. A clear election result with credible fiscal discipline would support a more positive view.
Automatic macro check
BullishScore +60 · 15 indicators · 10 tailwinds · 1 headwinds
Bullish: the macro backdrop is a tailwind for equities.
| Indicator | Latest | Reading | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada short-term interest rate (monthly) | 2.24 % | Down 0.4 pp in 12 months and on hold recently: earlier cuts still support equities. | Tailwind |
| Canada 10-year government bond yield (monthly) | 3.88 % | Up 0.7 pp in 12 months: higher long-term rates weigh on valuations. | Headwind |
| Canada unemployment rate (monthly) | 6.40 % | Down 0.7 pp in 12 months: the labour market is strengthening. | Tailwind |
| Canada real GDP growth (year over year) | 1.10 % | 1.1% growth: positive but modest. | Neutral |
| Brazil short-term interest rate (monthly) | 13.94 % | Cut by 0.6 pp in the last months: the central bank is easing, which supports equities. | Tailwind |
| Brazil real GDP growth (year over year) | 1.90 % | 1.9% growth: positive but modest. | Neutral |
| Mexico short-term interest rate (monthly) | 5.20 % | Down 0.9 pp in 12 months and on hold recently: earlier cuts still support equities. | Tailwind |
| USD/BRL (Brazilian reais per US dollar) | 5.0410 | The local currency gained about 6.4% against the dollar in 12 months: money is flowing in. | Tailwind |
| USD/MXN (Mexican pesos per US dollar) | 18.6638 | The currency is roughly stable against the dollar (−1.4% in 12 months). | Neutral |
| Chile short-term interest rate (monthly) | 4.50 % | Down 0.3 pp in 12 months and on hold recently: earlier cuts still support equities. | Tailwind |
| Canada exports (monthly, USD) | 55.4 bn USD | 26.4% higher than a year ago: trade is growing. | Tailwind |
| Brazil exports (monthly, USD) | 33.1 bn USD | 12.9% higher than a year ago: trade is growing. | Tailwind |
| Copper (USD per tonne, monthly) | 14,473.06 USD | Up 44.8% in 12 months: strong industrial demand. | Tailwind |
| WTI crude oil (USD per barrel) | 103.37 USD | Oil is 66.4% more expensive than a year ago: higher export revenues. | Tailwind |
| US dollar index (broad, Fed) | 121.32 | The dollar is roughly stable (+0.3% in 12 months). | Neutral |
How to read this
The automatic check rates each indicator by a fixed, transparent rule: for example, falling policy rates, inflation close to target, growing exports or falling unemployment count as a tailwind for equities, the opposite as a headwind.
The score is the average of all ratings from −100 (every indicator a headwind) to +100 (every indicator a tailwind). Above +20 counts as bullish, below −20 as bearish, in between as neutral. It is recalculated from the latest data on every visit.
The macro backdrop says whether a market has a tailwind or a headwind, not where it will be next week. EllTec Analysis combines it with fundamentals and the technical structure in every analysis. No investment advice.
Market Sentiment
How fearful or greedy investors are right now: the EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index for eight regions and the crypto Fear & Greed Index.
EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index
How fearful or greedy investors are in each region, measured by EllTec Analysis every trading day from up to eight market indicators. 0 means extreme fear, 100 extreme greed. Extreme fear has often marked good buying opportunities, extreme greed overheated markets.
Americas
Measured on: Latin American equities (Latin America 40 ETF) · Oct 30, 2026
14
Extreme fear
1 week: −51 · 1 month: −36 · 1 year: −48
Components
- Momentum8Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
- Price strength45Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
- Volatility020-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
- Safe-haven demand620-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
- Currency1320-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.
How the index is calculated
Every indicator is compared with its own last three years: the reading becomes a percentile from 0 (the most fearful reading of the period) to 100 (the most greedy). This way each indicator is judged against what is normal for it.
The index is the average of the available indicators. Readings from 0 to 25 mean extreme fear, 25 to 45 fear, 45 to 55 neutral, 55 to 75 greed and 75 to 100 extreme greed.
Data: daily closing prices from Yahoo Finance (stock indices, ETFs, currencies; only the derived index is shown) and the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index from FRED. Recalculated once a day.
Like every sentiment gauge it describes the mood, not the future. It is most useful at the extremes and together with the analysis of the asset itself.
- Momentum: Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
- Price strength: Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
- Volatility: 20-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
- Safe-haven demand: 20-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
- Junk bond demand: 20-day return of high-yield bonds minus Treasuries. Appetite for risky bonds shows greed.
- Market breadth: Equal-weight against cap-weight S&P 500. When many stocks rise, not only the giants, the mood is broad.
- Currency: 20-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.
- Stocks vs. gold: 20-day return of stocks minus gold. A flight into gold shows fear.
- Financial stress: St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (rates, credit spreads, volatility). High stress shows fear (inverted).
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
30
Fear
as of Oct 30, 2026 · 1 week: −20 · 1 month: −41
Change in period: −4
Measures the mood in the crypto market from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), based on volatility, momentum, trading volume, social media and Bitcoin dominance. Extreme fear has often marked buying opportunities, extreme greed overheated phases.
Source: Fear & Greed Index by Alternative.me
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
A sentiment gauge for the crypto market from 0 to 100, calculated by Alternative.me. It combines volatility, price momentum, trading volume, social media activity, Bitcoin dominance and search trends into one number. 0 to 24 means extreme fear, 75 to 100 extreme greed.
What can it signal?
The index is often read against the crowd: extreme fear has historically appeared near lows, extreme greed in overheated phases near highs. It is not a timing signal, though; extreme readings can last for weeks.
What is it connected with?
Refers mainly to Bitcoin and so to the whole crypto market (Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, Litecoin, NEO) as well as Bitcoin-related stocks such as Strategy (MSTR) or Robinhood. At EllTec Analysis it complements the wave count as a sentiment check.
Weekly Market Briefing · Macro outlook Americas
Americas: commodities support markets while Brazil's runoff result is awaited
The automatic check is bullish (score 60) thanks to easing short-term rates in Brazil, Mexico, Canada and Chile, strong commodity prices and a firmer real. EllTec Analysis keeps the region at neutral for now: the Brazilian runoff of 25 October, rising US yields and the weaker Mexican peso can swing markets in both directions. Energy, mining and agricultural exporters benefit from high commodity prices, while fuel importers and companies with dollar debt suffer. A clear election result with credible fiscal discipline would support a more positive view.
Read the full outlook in the Weekly Market BriefingKey charts
Canada short-term interest rate (monthly)
2.24 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: −0.01 pp · 1 year: −0.44 pp
Change in period: −2.75 pp
The overnight or call money rate in Canada (OECD), which closely follows the central bank's policy rate.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The short-term money market rate in Canada, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.
What can it signal?
A falling rate means the central bank is easing to support growth, which is usually a tailwind for equities. A rising rate means it is fighting inflation or defending the currency, which tightens financial conditions.
What is it connected with?
Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in Canada.
Canada 10-year government bond yield (monthly)
3.88 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.21 pp · 1 year: +0.66 pp
Change in period: +0.07 pp
Long-term rates in Canada, a commodity-exporting economy closely tied to the US.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The yield on 10-year Canadian government bonds, monthly average.
What can it signal?
Canada exports a lot of oil, gas and metals. Rising yields often reflect a strong commodity cycle or rising inflation, falling yields a slowdown.
What is it connected with?
Closely linked to US rates, oil prices and the USD/CAD exchange rate. Important for Canadian commodity and bank stocks.
Canada unemployment rate (monthly)
6.40 %
as of August 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: −0.70 pp
Change in period: +1.00 pp
Share of the labour force in Canada that is looking for work (OECD). A clear rise is an early sign of a weakening economy.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The share of people in the labour force of Canada who are looking for work, in percent.
What can it signal?
What matters most is the direction: a clear rise over a few months often comes early in a downturn, a steady fall shows a strong economy. A very low level can also mean wage pressure and therefore inflation.
What is it connected with?
Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in Canada.
Canada real GDP growth (year over year)
1.10 %
as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: +1.00 pp · 1 year: −0.90 pp
Change in period: −1.00 pp
Price-adjusted economic output of Canada, quarterly (IMF). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much the price-adjusted economic output of Canada grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
What can it signal?
Growth well above zero supports company profits and the stock market. Two weak quarters in a row or a fall below zero point to a recession. Because GDP is published with a delay, it confirms a trend rather than forecasting it.
What is it connected with?
Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for Canada.
Canada exports (monthly, USD)
55.4 bn USD
as of August 2026 · 1 month: +6.1 % · 1 year: +26.4 %
Change in period: +15.6 %
Value of the goods Canada sells abroad each month (OECD), mainly oil, gas, cars, metals and grain, three quarters of it to the US.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The value of the goods Canada sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly oil, gas, cars, metals and grain, three quarters of it to the US.
What can it signal?
Rising exports show strong demand for what the country produces and bring in foreign currency; a clear fall compared with a year earlier often comes with weaker global demand or falling commodity prices, and weighs on the currency and on export-heavy companies.
What is it connected with?
Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.
Canada house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)
-6.80 %
as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: −1.30 pp · 1 year: −3.10 pp
Change in period: +12.80 pp
Residential property prices in Canada after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much residential property prices in Canada changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).
What can it signal?
Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.
What is it connected with?
Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Canada.
USD/CAD (Canadian dollars per US dollar)
1.3993
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: −0.7 % · 1 year: +0.0 %
Change in period: +2.3 %
The Canadian dollar is a classic oil currency; it often strengthens when crude rises.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How many Canadian dollars you get for one US dollar. A rising value means a weaker Canadian dollar.
What can it signal?
Canada is a large oil exporter. When oil rises, the Canadian dollar usually strengthens and the rate falls. Differences in the two countries' policy rates also move it.
What is it connected with?
Linked to WTI crude, rates in Canada and the US, and the US dollar index.
Brazil short-term interest rate (monthly)
13.94 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: −0.12 pp · 1 year: −1.06 pp
Change in period: +0.86 pp
The overnight or call money rate in Brazil (OECD), which closely follows the central bank's policy rate.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The short-term money market rate in Brazil, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.
What can it signal?
A falling rate means the central bank is easing to support growth, which is usually a tailwind for equities. A rising rate means it is fighting inflation or defending the currency, which tightens financial conditions.
What is it connected with?
Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in Brazil.
Brazil real GDP growth (year over year)
1.90 %
as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: +0.10 pp · 1 year: −0.70 pp
Change in period: −1.80 pp
Price-adjusted economic output of Brazil, quarterly (IMF). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much the price-adjusted economic output of Brazil grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
What can it signal?
Growth well above zero supports company profits and the stock market. Two weak quarters in a row or a fall below zero point to a recession. Because GDP is published with a delay, it confirms a trend rather than forecasting it.
What is it connected with?
Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for Brazil.
Brazil exports (monthly, USD)
33.1 bn USD
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +4.7 % · 1 year: +12.9 %
Change in period: +16.7 %
Value of the goods Brazil sells abroad each month (OECD), mainly soybeans, iron ore, oil, coffee and sugar, with China as the largest buyer.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The value of the goods Brazil sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly soybeans, iron ore, oil, coffee and sugar, with China as the largest buyer.
What can it signal?
Rising exports show strong demand for what the country produces and bring in foreign currency; a clear fall compared with a year earlier often comes with weaker global demand or falling commodity prices, and weighs on the currency and on export-heavy companies.
What is it connected with?
Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.
Brazil house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)
5.40 %
as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: +1.00 pp · 1 year: +3.50 pp
Change in period: −1.10 pp
Residential property prices in Brazil after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much residential property prices in Brazil changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).
What can it signal?
Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.
What is it connected with?
Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Brazil.
USD/BRL (Brazilian reais per US dollar)
5.0410
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: −2.1 % · 1 year: −6.4 %
Change in period: +0.7 %
Brazil's currency against the dollar; important for coffee, sugar and other commodity exports.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How many Brazilian reais you get for one US dollar. A rising value means a weaker real.
What can it signal?
Brazil is one of the largest exporters of coffee, sugar, soybeans and iron ore. A weak real makes these exports cheaper and can push world prices down because farmers sell more.
What is it connected with?
Linked to coffee, sugar, iron ore, commodity prices and the US dollar.
Mexico short-term interest rate (monthly)
5.20 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.11 pp · 1 year: −0.89 pp
Change in period: −3.25 pp
The overnight or call money rate in Mexico (OECD), which closely follows the central bank's policy rate.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The short-term money market rate in Mexico, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.
What can it signal?
A falling rate means the central bank is easing to support growth, which is usually a tailwind for equities. A rising rate means it is fighting inflation or defending the currency, which tightens financial conditions.
What is it connected with?
Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in Mexico.
Mexico 10-year government bond yield (monthly)
9.35 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.19 pp · 1 year: +0.56 pp
Change in period: −0.33 pp
The long-term interest rate of Mexico (OECD). Rising yields make borrowing more expensive and compete with equities for investors' money.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The yield investors earn per year on a 10-year government bond of Mexico, as a monthly average. It is the country's long-term interest rate.
What can it signal?
Rising yields mean investors expect more inflation or demand more compensation for risk, which makes loans more expensive and weighs on equity valuations. Falling yields usually point to lower inflation, expected rate cuts or a flight to safety.
What is it connected with?
Connected with the central bank's policy rate, inflation, government debt and the currency. For the stock market of Mexico, rising long-term rates are a headwind, especially for growth stocks, real estate and utilities, while banks often benefit.
Mexico unemployment rate (monthly)
2.75 %
as of August 2026 · 1 month: +0.03 pp · 1 year: +0.09 pp
Change in period: +0.05 pp
Share of the labour force in Mexico that is looking for work (OECD). A clear rise is an early sign of a weakening economy.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The share of people in the labour force of Mexico who are looking for work, in percent.
What can it signal?
What matters most is the direction: a clear rise over a few months often comes early in a downturn, a steady fall shows a strong economy. A very low level can also mean wage pressure and therefore inflation.
What is it connected with?
Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in Mexico.
Mexico real GDP growth (year over year)
1.90 %
as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: +1.40 pp · 1 year: +1.10 pp
Change in period: −1.50 pp
Price-adjusted economic output of Mexico, quarterly (IMF). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much the price-adjusted economic output of Mexico grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
What can it signal?
Growth well above zero supports company profits and the stock market. Two weak quarters in a row or a fall below zero point to a recession. Because GDP is published with a delay, it confirms a trend rather than forecasting it.
What is it connected with?
Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for Mexico.
Mexico exports (monthly, USD)
78.1 bn USD
as of August 2026 · 1 month: +1.2 % · 1 year: +39.7 %
Change in period: +56.7 %
Value of the goods Mexico sells abroad each month (OECD), mainly cars, electronics and machinery for the US market.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The value of the goods Mexico sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly cars, electronics and machinery for the US market.
What can it signal?
Rising exports show strong demand for what the country produces and bring in foreign currency; a clear fall compared with a year earlier often comes with weaker global demand or falling commodity prices, and weighs on the currency and on export-heavy companies.
What is it connected with?
Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.
USD/MXN (Mexican pesos per US dollar)
18.6638
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: +6.7 % · 1 year: +1.4 %
Change in period: +3.1 %
The most traded emerging market currency, sensitive to US trade policy and global risk sentiment.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How many Mexican pesos you get for one US dollar. A rising value means a weaker peso.
What can it signal?
The peso is the most traded emerging market currency and reacts strongly to US tariffs, trade disputes and global sentiment. A quickly rising rate shows stress, a falling one confidence.
What is it connected with?
Linked to US trade, oil prices, emerging market stocks and risk sentiment.
Chile short-term interest rate (monthly)
4.50 %
as of August 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: −0.25 pp
Change in period: −5.75 pp
The overnight or call money rate in Chile (OECD), which closely follows the central bank's policy rate.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The short-term money market rate in Chile, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.
What can it signal?
A falling rate means the central bank is easing to support growth, which is usually a tailwind for equities. A rising rate means it is fighting inflation or defending the currency, which tightens financial conditions.
What is it connected with?
Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in Chile.
Chile 10-year government bond yield (monthly)
6.01 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.33 pp · 1 year: +0.37 pp
Change in period: +0.04 pp
The long-term interest rate of Chile (OECD). Rising yields make borrowing more expensive and compete with equities for investors' money.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The yield investors earn per year on a 10-year government bond of Chile, as a monthly average. It is the country's long-term interest rate.
What can it signal?
Rising yields mean investors expect more inflation or demand more compensation for risk, which makes loans more expensive and weighs on equity valuations. Falling yields usually point to lower inflation, expected rate cuts or a flight to safety.
What is it connected with?
Connected with the central bank's policy rate, inflation, government debt and the currency. For the stock market of Chile, rising long-term rates are a headwind, especially for growth stocks, real estate and utilities, while banks often benefit.
Chile unemployment rate (monthly)
9.36 %
as of July 2026 · 1 month: +0.08 pp · 1 year: +1.05 pp
Change in period: +0.62 pp
Share of the labour force in Chile that is looking for work (OECD). A clear rise is an early sign of a weakening economy.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The share of people in the labour force of Chile who are looking for work, in percent.
What can it signal?
What matters most is the direction: a clear rise over a few months often comes early in a downturn, a steady fall shows a strong economy. A very low level can also mean wage pressure and therefore inflation.
What is it connected with?
Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in Chile.
Canada trade balance (exports minus imports, monthly, USD)
4.0 bn USD
as of August 2026 · 1 month: +3.2 bn USD · 1 year: +7.5 bn USD
Change in period: +3.3 bn USD
Goods sold abroad minus goods bought abroad each month (OECD). Above zero is a surplus. Driven mainly by oil and gas exports and trade with the US.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The value of the goods Canada sells abroad minus the goods it buys abroad each month, in US dollars. Above zero is a surplus, below zero a deficit. Mainly driven by oil and gas exports and trade with the US.
What can it signal?
A growing surplus brings foreign currency into the country and usually supports the currency. A widening deficit has to be financed from abroad, which makes the currency and local markets more vulnerable when global investors turn cautious.
What is it connected with?
Connected with commodity prices, the economies of its main trading partners, the currency against the US dollar and the earnings of exporters and importers in Canada.
Canada employment growth (year over year)
1.00 %
as of August 2026 · 1 month: +0.10 pp · 1 year: +0.10 pp
Change in period: −2.20 pp
How much the number of people in work in Canada changed within a year (OECD). Below zero, jobs are being lost.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much the number of people in work in Canada changed compared with a year earlier, in percent.
What can it signal?
Solid job growth supports incomes and consumer spending. When it slows towards zero or turns negative, the economy is cooling and a downturn often follows.
What is it connected with?
Connected with the unemployment rate, wages, consumer spending and the central bank's decisions in Canada. Weak job growth usually weighs on consumer and cyclical stocks.
Mexico trade balance (exports minus imports, monthly, USD)
3.5 bn USD
as of August 2026 · 1 month: +3.6 bn USD · 1 year: +3.3 bn USD
Change in period: +3.4 bn USD
Goods sold abroad minus goods bought abroad each month (OECD). Above zero is a surplus. Driven mainly by car and electronics production for the US, which also needs many imported parts.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The value of the goods Mexico sells abroad minus the goods it buys abroad each month, in US dollars. Above zero is a surplus, below zero a deficit. Mainly driven by car and electronics production for the US, which also needs many imported parts.
What can it signal?
A growing surplus brings foreign currency into the country and usually supports the currency. A widening deficit has to be financed from abroad, which makes the currency and local markets more vulnerable when global investors turn cautious.
What is it connected with?
Connected with commodity prices, the economies of its main trading partners, the currency against the US dollar and the earnings of exporters and importers in Mexico.
Mexico house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)
4.40 %
as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: −0.70 pp · 1 year: +0.10 pp
Change in period: +0.50 pp
Residential property prices in Mexico after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much residential property prices in Mexico changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).
What can it signal?
Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.
What is it connected with?
Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Mexico.
Brazil trade balance (exports minus imports, monthly, USD)
8.2 bn USD
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +1.7 bn USD · 1 year: +4.4 bn USD
Change in period: −1.1 bn USD
Goods sold abroad minus goods bought abroad each month (OECD). Above zero is a surplus. Driven mainly by soybean, iron ore and oil exports, above all to China.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The value of the goods Brazil sells abroad minus the goods it buys abroad each month, in US dollars. Above zero is a surplus, below zero a deficit. Mainly driven by soybean, iron ore and oil exports, above all to China.
What can it signal?
A growing surplus brings foreign currency into the country and usually supports the currency. A widening deficit has to be financed from abroad, which makes the currency and local markets more vulnerable when global investors turn cautious.
What is it connected with?
Connected with commodity prices, the economies of its main trading partners, the currency against the US dollar and the earnings of exporters and importers in Brazil.
Chile exports (monthly, USD)
11.2 bn USD
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +9.2 % · 1 year: +14.1 %
Change in period: +46.6 %
Value of the goods Chile sells abroad each month (OECD), mainly copper, lithium, fruit and salmon, with China as the largest buyer.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The value of the goods Chile sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly copper, lithium, fruit and salmon, with China as the largest buyer.
What can it signal?
Rising exports show strong demand for what the country produces and bring in foreign currency; a clear fall compared with a year earlier often comes with weaker global demand or falling commodity prices, and weighs on the currency and on export-heavy companies.
What is it connected with?
Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.
Chile house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)
2.40 %
as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: +1.00 pp · 1 year: +0.80 pp
Change in period: +5.50 pp
Residential property prices in Chile after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much residential property prices in Chile changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).
What can it signal?
Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.
What is it connected with?
Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Chile.
Colombia house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)
7.00 %
as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: +0.80 pp · 1 year: +7.90 pp
Change in period: +11.80 pp
Residential property prices in Colombia after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much residential property prices in Colombia changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).
What can it signal?
Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.
What is it connected with?
Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Colombia.
Peru house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)
5.20 %
as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: +0.60 pp · 1 year: +6.00 pp
Change in period: +12.40 pp
Residential property prices in Peru after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much residential property prices in Peru changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).
What can it signal?
Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.
What is it connected with?
Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Peru.
Argentina real GDP growth (year over year)
2.30 %
as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: −0.10 pp · 1 year: −3.60 pp
Change in period: +2.00 pp
Price-adjusted economic output of Argentina, quarterly (IMF). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much the price-adjusted economic output of Argentina grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
What can it signal?
Growth well above zero supports company profits and the stock market. Two weak quarters in a row or a fall below zero point to a recession. Because GDP is published with a delay, it confirms a trend rather than forecasting it.
What is it connected with?
Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for Argentina.
WTI crude oil (USD per barrel)
103.37 USD
as of Oct 27, 2026 · 1 month: +21.3 % · 1 year: +66.4 %
Change in period: +20.1 %
The US oil benchmark, closely linked to US petrol prices.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The price of one barrel of US West Texas Intermediate crude in US dollars, traded in Cushing, Oklahoma.
What can it signal?
Usually moves in step with Brent. A widening gap to Brent can point to US-specific factors such as inventories or export bottlenecks. High prices feed directly into US petrol prices and consumer sentiment.
What is it connected with?
Important for US oil producers, US inflation, airlines and transport. Linked to Brent, natural gas and the US dollar.
Copper (USD per tonne, monthly)
14,473.06 USD
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +1.0 % · 1 year: +44.8 %
Change in period: +74.9 %
Called Dr. Copper because its price often reflects the health of the global economy.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The world price of copper, in US dollars per tonne, as a monthly average from the International Monetary Fund.
What can it signal?
Copper is used in power grids, buildings, cars and electronics. Because demand is so broad, its price is seen as an economic barometer (Dr. Copper). Rising prices point to growth, sharply falling ones to a slowdown, especially in China.
What is it connected with?
Linked to China and the yuan, electric vehicles and the energy transition (such as XPeng, Vulcan Energy, Canadian Solar), industrial stocks and industrial production.
World metals price index (IMF, monthly)
237.73
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +1.7 % · 1 year: +23.4 %
Change in period: +30.1 %
IMF index of copper, aluminium, iron ore, nickel, zinc, lead, tin and uranium (2016 = 100). A broad gauge of industrial demand, especially from China.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The IMF index of world metal prices (copper, aluminium, iron ore, nickel, zinc, lead, tin and uranium), 2016 = 100.
What can it signal?
Rising metal prices usually reflect strong industrial demand, especially from China, and the build-out of power grids and electric cars. A clear fall points to a slowing world economy.
What is it connected with?
Linked to China's economy, mining stocks, the currencies of exporters such as Australia, Chile, Brazil and South Africa, and inflation.
World food price index (IMF, monthly)
137.11
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.8 % · 1 year: +8.3 %
Change in period: +4.6 %
IMF index of cereals, vegetable oils, meat, seafood, sugar and other foods (2016 = 100). Rising food prices hit emerging markets in Africa, the Middle East and Asia hardest.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The IMF index of world food prices (cereals, vegetable oils, meat, seafood, sugar and others), 2016 = 100.
What can it signal?
Rising food prices push up inflation, especially in emerging markets where food is a large part of household spending, and can cause social unrest. Falling prices give central banks there room to cut rates.
What is it connected with?
Linked to the weather, fertiliser and energy prices, the US dollar, inflation in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn, soybeans, sugar and coffee.
Soybeans (IMF, USD per tonne, monthly)
481.72 USD
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +7.3 % · 1 year: +30.7 %
Change in period: −1.1 %
World price of soybeans, a key feed and food oil crop; heavily traded between the US, Brazil and China.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The world price of soybeans in USD per tonne (monthly average, International Monetary Fund data).
What can it signal?
Rising prices point to tight harvests or strong demand, especially from China. US and China trade disputes move the price a lot.
What is it connected with?
Linked to corn, wheat, fertiliser and crop chemical stocks such as FMC, the Brazilian real and food inflation.
Corn (IMF, USD per tonne, monthly)
236.92 USD
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +7.1 % · 1 year: +20.8 %
Change in period: +5.8 %
World price of corn, used for food, animal feed and ethanol; linked to oil and sugar.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The world price of corn in USD per tonne (monthly average, IMF data).
What can it signal?
Corn is the basis of animal feed and ethanol. High prices make meat and food more expensive and ethanol from sugar more attractive.
What is it connected with?
Linked to soybeans, wheat, sugar, oil prices and crop chemical stocks such as FMC.
Coffee, Arabica (US cents per pound, monthly)
330.1 US cents
as of September 2026 · 1 month: −8.5 % · 1 year: −17.4 %
Change in period: +79.8 %
World price for Arabica coffee; EllTec Analysis covers coffee as a commodity analysis.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The world price of Arabica coffee, in US cents per pound (about 450 grams), as a monthly average from the International Monetary Fund.
What can it signal?
Coffee prices depend heavily on the weather in Brazil and Vietnam. Frost or drought can multiply them within months. High prices reach roasters, cafés and supermarkets with a delay.
What is it connected with?
Linked to the Brazilian real, the US dollar and food inflation. EllTec Analysis publishes its own coffee analysis.
Sugar (US cents per pound, monthly)
17.9 US cents
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +6.6 % · 1 year: +13.6 %
Change in period: −32.5 %
World sugar price; linked to Brazil's harvest and the ethanol price via oil.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The world price of raw sugar, in US cents per pound, as a monthly average from the International Monetary Fund.
What can it signal?
Brazil is the largest exporter. Its mills decide whether to turn sugar cane into sugar or ethanol, so the sugar price also depends on oil and petrol prices. Weather in Brazil and India and India's export rules move the price strongly.
What is it connected with?
Linked to crude oil, the Brazilian real, food inflation and food producers. EllTec Analysis publishes its own analysis of sugar futures.
US dollar vs. emerging market currencies
130.21
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: +1.6 % · 1 year: −1.2 %
Change in period: −0.3 %
Trade-weighted dollar against the currencies of emerging economies (Fed). A rising dollar here tightens financing for emerging markets and often weighs on their stocks.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The trade-weighted value of the US dollar against the currencies of emerging economies such as China, Mexico, India, Brazil and Korea.
What can it signal?
A rising line means emerging market currencies are losing value. That makes their dollar debts more expensive, drives capital out and usually weighs on their stock markets. A falling dollar is a tailwind for emerging markets.
What is it connected with?
Linked to US interest rates, global risk appetite, commodity prices and capital flows into emerging markets.
US dollar index (broad, Fed)
121.32
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: +1.0 % · 1 year: +0.3 %
Change in period: −1.6 %
A stronger dollar tightens global financial conditions and often weighs on emerging markets and commodities.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The value of the US dollar against a broad basket of currencies of major trading partners, calculated by the Fed.
What can it signal?
A strong dollar makes it more expensive for the rest of the world to service dollar debt and buy commodities priced in dollars. A weaker dollar acts like an easing of global financial conditions.
What is it connected with?
Usually moves opposite to commodities (gold, oil, sugar, coffee), emerging market stocks (for example South Africa or China) and Bitcoin. For euro investors it directly affects the return on US assets.
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (data from the Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis, Chicago, Cleveland, Atlanta, Dallas and Kansas City, U.S. Treasury, BLS, BEA, Census Bureau, Department of Labor, FHFA, EIA, ECB, Eurostat, OECD, IMF, Bank of Japan and Freddie Mac). Rates of change are calculated year over year from the underlying indices; net liquidity is the Fed balance sheet minus the Treasury General Account and reverse repos. Last refreshed: Oct 30, 2026. For information only, not investment advice.