Macro dashboard: USA

What does the chart show?

The policy rate of the US central bank (Federal Reserve, or Fed). It is the rate at which US banks lend to each other overnight. The Fed sets a target range; this chart shows its upper limit.

What can it signal?

When the rate rises, money gets more expensive: loans cost more, companies invest less and the economy cools. When it falls, money gets cheaper and the economy is stimulated. Hikes usually mean the Fed is fighting inflation, cuts that it is worried about growth.

What is it connected with?

Almost every market reacts to the Fed: stocks (especially growth and technology), bonds, the US dollar, gold and crypto. High rates make safe interest income more attractive and risky assets less so. Closely tied to inflation, the labour market and the 2-year Treasury yield.

What does the chart show?

The yield on a 2-year US government bond. Because the maturity is short, it mainly reflects what the market expects the Fed to do over the next two years.

What can it signal?

If the 2-year yield is well below the policy rate, the market expects rate cuts. If it is above, it expects further hikes. A rapid fall is often an early sign of a turn in monetary policy.

What is it connected with?

Closely tied to the Fed funds rate, the US dollar and the yield curve (10 years minus 2 years). Important for banks and short-term interest investments.

What does the chart show?

The annual yield investors receive on a 10-year US government bond. It is set by the market every day and is the most important interest rate in the world.

What can it signal?

Rising yields mean investors expect more inflation, more growth or more government debt. For stocks this is often a headwind, because future profits are worth less when discounted at a higher rate. Falling yields often point to weaker growth or a flight to safety.

What is it connected with?

Drives mortgage rates and borrowing costs worldwide. Growth and technology stocks (NASDAQ 100), real estate, gold and Bitcoin are especially sensitive. Closely linked to the real yield and inflation expectations.

What does the chart show?

The difference between the 10-year and the 2-year US yield in percentage points. Normally longer maturities pay more interest, so the curve is positive.

What can it signal?

When the value falls below zero, the curve is called inverted. This happened before almost every US recession of the past 50 years, often 6 to 24 months ahead. Note: the recession usually came only after the curve had moved back above zero (re-steepening).

What is it connected with?

One of the most reliable business-cycle indicators. Affects bank stocks (they earn the spread between short and long rates), cyclical stocks and the market's general appetite for risk.

What does the chart show?

The yield on inflation-protected 10-year US government bonds (TIPS). It shows the interest rate after expected inflation, in other words the real return.

What can it signal?

Rising real yields make safe assets genuinely rewarding and pull capital away from assets with no income. Negative real yields mean savers lose money after inflation, which often pushes investors into stocks, gold and crypto.

What is it connected with?

One of the main drivers of the gold price (usually moving in the opposite direction), of richly valued growth stocks and of Bitcoin. Together with inflation expectations (breakeven) it roughly adds up to the normal 10-year yield.

What does the chart show?

The US inflation rate: how much more expensive a typical basket of goods and services (rent, food, petrol, services) has become compared with the same month a year ago. The dashed line shows the Fed's 2% target.

What can it signal?

If inflation is well above 2%, the Fed tends to keep rates high or raise them. If it falls toward 2%, rate cuts become more likely. Surprises in the monthly release often move markets strongly.

What is it connected with?

Directly linked to the policy rate, bond yields and the US dollar. High inflation squeezes consumers and company margins but can help commodities and real assets. Oil prices are a key driver.

What does the chart show?

US inflation excluding energy and food. Those two categories swing a lot, so core inflation shows the underlying price trend better.

What can it signal?

If core inflation stays high while headline inflation falls, price pressure is sticky (for example in rents and wages). For the Fed that is a reason to wait with rate cuts.

What is it connected with?

Strongly linked to wages, rents and the labour market. Important for rate expectations and therefore for bonds, stock valuations and the dollar.

What does the chart show?

Core inflation based on the PCE index (personal consumption expenditures), excluding energy and food. This is the measure the Fed's 2% target officially refers to.

What can it signal?

Because the Fed watches exactly this number, it often matters more for rate decisions than the better known CPI. A decline toward 2% opens the door to rate cuts.

What is it connected with?

Usually runs a little below core CPI. Important for rate expectations, bond yields, the dollar and so indirectly for stocks and crypto.

What does the chart show?

The inflation expected for the next 12 months, estimated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland from bond yields, inflation swaps and surveys.

What can it signal?

Shows what inflation markets and consumers expect in the short run. Rising expectations can feed themselves, because companies raise prices and workers ask for higher pay sooner. Falling expectations give the Fed room to cut rates.

What is it connected with?

Linked to petrol and food prices, consumer inflation and the Fed's next rate decisions.

What does the chart show?

Quarterly growth of the US economy (gross domestic product), adjusted for inflation and annualised. It measures the value of all goods and services produced in the US.

What can it signal?

Values around 2% are considered healthy growth. Two negative quarters in a row are a common rule of thumb for a recession. Very high values can signal inflation pressure.

What is it connected with?

The basis for company profits and therefore stocks. Closely tied to consumption (retail sales), the labour market, industrial production and Fed decisions.

What does the chart show?

A running estimate by the Atlanta Fed of US growth in the current quarter (real, annualised). It is recalculated after every major data release, long before the official number arrives.

What can it signal?

A high value shows a strong economy in the current quarter, a value below zero a shrinking one. As it is a model, the estimate can still change a lot during the quarter.

What is it connected with?

Linked to official GDP growth, consumer spending, investment and expectations for the Fed.

What does the chart show?

The New York Fed's Weekly Economic Index combines ten weekly series, such as jobless claims, electricity output, rail freight, tax withholding and consumer confidence. It is scaled to match US GDP growth over four quarters.

What can it signal?

A reading of 2 roughly means the economy is growing at about 2 % a year right now. Because it comes out every week, it shows turning points earlier than official GDP data, but it is noisier.

What is it connected with?

Linked to GDP growth, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow, initial jobless claims and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Useful after shocks (as in 2020) to see quickly how hard the economy is hit.

What does the chart show?

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index combines 85 economic indicators from production, employment, consumption, housing and orders into one number.

What can it signal?

Zero means growth at the long-term trend, positive values growth above it, negative below. When the three-month average falls below about −0.7, a recession has often started.

What is it connected with?

A good summary of many single data series on this page. Linked to industrial production, the labour market and cyclical stocks.

What does the chart show?

The OECD's composite leading indicator for the US combines measures that usually turn before the economy, such as orders, building permits, share prices and interest rate spreads. 100 is the long-term trend.

What can it signal?

When it rises above 100, growth above trend is likely in the coming months. When it falls below 100 and keeps falling, a slowdown is looming.

What is it connected with?

Linked to cyclical stocks, commodities, corporate earnings and the rate cycle.

What does the chart show?

How many jobs outside agriculture were created (or lost) in the US in a month, in thousands. The figure is published on the first Friday of every month.

What can it signal?

Above roughly 150,000 new jobs per month the labour market counts as strong. Values near zero or below point to cooling and make rate cuts more likely. Note: the figures are often revised significantly later.

What is it connected with?

One of the most market-moving releases of all: it shifts rate expectations, the dollar, bonds, stocks and gold, often within minutes. Linked to the unemployment rate, jobless claims and consumption.

What does the chart show?

The share of people in the US who want to work but have no job.

What can it signal?

A low rate shows a strong labour market. When it rises by about half a percentage point from its low within a year (Sahm rule), that has historically been a reliable sign that a recession has started.

What is it connected with?

The Fed has two goals: stable prices and maximum employment. Rising unemployment therefore often leads to rate cuts. Important for consumer stocks and the economy as a whole.

What does the chart show?

How many people in the US file a first claim for unemployment benefits each week, in thousands. Published every Thursday, so it is very up to date.

What can it signal?

A sustained rise is one of the first signs that companies are cutting staff and the economy is cooling. Low, stable values show a robust labour market.

What is it connected with?

Leading indicator for the monthly jobs report and the unemployment rate. Rising claims increase the chance of rate cuts and are often bad for cyclical stocks.

What does the chart show?

The Sahm indicator, named after economist Claudia Sahm: how far the 3-month average of the US unemployment rate is above its low of the past 12 months, in percentage points.

What can it signal?

A reading of 0.5 or more has almost always meant that a recession had started. It is a real-time signal rather than a leading indicator and can be distorted by special effects such as a fast-growing labour force.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the unemployment rate, continuing claims and the yield curve. A rise usually brings faster rate cuts and weighs on cyclical stocks.

What does the chart show?

An estimate by economists Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger of how likely it is that the US economy is currently in recession. The model reads monthly employment, industrial production, real income and sales.

What can it signal?

Values near zero mean expansion. When the line rises clearly above about 20 %, the economy has usually already been in or close to a recession. Because the data arrive with a delay, it confirms a recession more than it predicts one far ahead.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the yield curve (10 years minus 3 months), the Sahm rule, initial jobless claims and earnings estimates for stocks. In recessions stocks and commodities usually fall while Treasuries and often gold rise.

What does the chart show?

How much more or less US consumers spend in retail compared with a year earlier, not adjusted for inflation.

What can it signal?

Consumption is about two thirds of the US economy. If sales growth is below the inflation rate, people are buying less in real terms, a warning sign for the economy.

What is it connected with?

Directly relevant for retailers and consumer stocks (such as Best Buy, Lululemon, Wayfair, Zalando), payment providers (PayPal) and overall economic growth.

What does the chart show?

US household income after taxes, adjusted for inflation, compared with a year earlier.

What can it signal?

When real income grows, people can spend more without borrowing or saving less. When it shrinks, consumer spending comes under pressure sooner or later.

What is it connected with?

Linked to consumer spending, the saving rate, consumer credit and retail stocks such as Lululemon or Best Buy.

What does the chart show?

The change in US industrial production (factories, mining, electricity and gas utilities) compared with a year earlier.

What can it signal?

Positive values show a growing industry, negative ones a shrinking one. Industry reacts to turns in the business cycle earlier than services, so it counts as a leading indicator.

What is it connected with?

Important for commodities (oil, metals, gas), industrial and chemical stocks (such as FMC or thyssenkrupp) and transport companies.

What does the chart show?

After-tax profits of all US companies from the national accounts, as a quarterly figure scaled up to a full year.

What can it signal?

In the long run stock prices follow profits. Rising profits support the market, falling profits often come with recessions and falling prices.

What is it connected with?

Linked to US stocks, economic growth, wages and companies' interest costs.

What does the chart show?

The Fed's balance sheet minus the Treasury General Account (TGA) and the reverse repo facility, in USD trillion. A simplified measure of how much central bank money is actually at work in the financial system.

What can it signal?

When net liquidity rises, more money is available for investment, which in recent years has often gone along with rising stock and crypto prices. When it falls, for example through the Fed shrinking its balance sheet or a fuller government account, markets lose a tailwind.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the Fed balance sheet, the TGA, reverse repos, bank reserves and especially liquidity-driven assets such as Bitcoin, technology stocks (Nasdaq 100) and small caps (Russell 2000).

What does the chart show?

Growth of the US M2 money supply compared with a year earlier. M2 includes cash, checking and savings accounts and money-market funds, the money people and companies can access quickly.

What can it signal?

Strong growth means lots of new money in the system, which often flows into assets such as stocks, real estate and crypto and can later drive inflation. A contraction (negative values) is historically rare and signals very tight liquidity.

What is it connected with?

Seen as an important driver for Bitcoin and speculative assets. Connected with the Fed's balance sheet, bank lending and inflation.

What does the chart show?

An index by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago that combines 105 measures from money markets, bonds, stocks and bank lending into one number each week.

What can it signal?

Values below zero mean money is easier to get than on average, which usually supports stocks and crypto. A quick rise above zero has signalled financial stress in the past, such as in 2008 and 2020.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the financial stress index, the policy rate, bank lending standards, stocks and crypto.

What does the chart show?

The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index combines 18 weekly market indicators such as yield spreads, volatility and risk premiums into one number.

What can it signal?

Zero is a normal level of stress. Positive values show elevated stress, as in 2008, 2020 or the 2023 banking turmoil. Negative values mean calm, relaxed markets in which investors happily take risk.

What is it connected with?

Linked to equity volatility, corporate credit spreads, the US dollar and safe-haven currencies. High readings weigh on risky assets such as small caps and crypto.

What does the chart show?

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US, surveyed weekly by Freddie Mac.

What can it signal?

High mortgage rates slow home buying and construction because the monthly payment rises sharply. Falling rates revive the housing market and free up money for spending through refinancing.

What is it connected with?

Follows the 10-year yield closely. Important for home builders, home improvement retailers, banks, furniture sellers (such as Wayfair) and US consumption as a whole, since the home is the largest asset of many households.

What does the chart show?

The change in US single-family house prices compared with a year earlier, from the FHFA house price index.

What can it signal?

Rising house prices make owners wealthier and support spending (wealth effect). Falling prices hurt banks and consumption, as in the 2008 financial crisis. House prices feed into shelter inflation with a delay.

What is it connected with?

Linked to mortgage rates, shelter inflation, banks and consumption as a whole.

What does the chart show?

The value of the US dollar against a broad basket of currencies of major trading partners, calculated by the Fed.

What can it signal?

A strong dollar makes it more expensive for the rest of the world to service dollar debt and buy commodities priced in dollars. A weaker dollar acts like an easing of global financial conditions.

What is it connected with?

Usually moves opposite to commodities (gold, oil, sugar, coffee), emerging market stocks (for example South Africa or China) and Bitcoin. For euro investors it directly affects the return on US assets.

What does the chart show?

The balance of the US federal budget per fiscal year in percent of GDP. Negative values are a deficit, positive ones a surplus.

What can it signal?

A large deficit in good times means a lot of new government debt and so a large supply of Treasuries. It supports the economy in the short run but can push rates and inflation up. Deficits almost always widen in recessions.

What is it connected with?

Linked to government debt, interest costs, long-term yields and the US dollar.

What does the chart show?

US federal debt relative to annual economic output (GDP), in percent.

What can it signal?

The debt ratio shows how sustainable the debt is. A lasting rise can make investors demand higher rates and shrinks the room for stimulus in a crisis. Strong growth and inflation lower the ratio, recessions raise it.

What is it connected with?

Linked to interest costs, the budget deficit, long-term yields and US credit ratings.