EllTec Analysis
Macro dashboard: Germany
Europe's largest economy and export engine: growth, inflation, jobs and trade in Germany together with the ECB, energy prices and the euro.
What it means for equities
Refers to: German equities (DAX, MDAX)
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EllTec Analysis view · as of Oct 26, 2026
Bearish
The automatic check is bearish (score minus 25), and EllTec Analysis agrees. The ECB deposit rate of 2.50%, Bund yields near 3.5% and European gas prices more than double last year's level hit energy-intensive industry hardest. Chemicals, steel and other energy-hungry sectors suffer most, while banks and insurers gain from higher rates and exporters from the weaker euro. Lower energy prices or a clear pause signal from the ECB would improve the outlook.
Automatic macro check
BearishScore -25 · 8 indicators · 1 tailwinds · 3 headwinds
Bearish: the macro backdrop is a headwind for equities.
| Indicator | Latest | Reading | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECB deposit rate | 2.50 % | Raised by 0.3 pp in the last months: the central bank is tightening again. | Headwind |
| German 10-year Bund yield (monthly) | 3.47 % | Up 0.8 pp in 12 months: higher long-term rates weigh on valuations. | Headwind |
| Germany inflation (HICP, year over year) | 3.30 % | At 3.3% somewhat above the 2% target. | Neutral |
| Germany real GDP growth (year over year) | 1.00 % | 1.0% growth: a solid base for company earnings. | Tailwind |
| Germany unemployment rate (ILO definition) | 4.00 % | At 4.0% and little changed over 12 months. | Neutral |
| German exports (monthly, USD) | 157.4 bn USD | Roughly at last year's level (+4.2%). | Neutral |
| European natural gas (USD per MMBtu, monthly) | 25.49 USD | Energy is 131.7% more expensive than a year ago: a cost burden for companies and consumers. | Headwind |
| Spread Italy vs. Germany (10-year yields, monthly) | +0.80 pp | At 0.8 pp and little changed: no sign of stress. | Neutral |
How to read this
The automatic check rates each indicator by a fixed, transparent rule: for example, falling policy rates, inflation close to target, growing exports or falling unemployment count as a tailwind for equities, the opposite as a headwind.
The score is the average of all ratings from −100 (every indicator a headwind) to +100 (every indicator a tailwind). Above +20 counts as bullish, below −20 as bearish, in between as neutral. It is recalculated from the latest data on every visit.
The macro backdrop says whether a market has a tailwind or a headwind, not where it will be next week. EllTec Analysis combines it with fundamentals and the technical structure in every analysis. No investment advice.
Market Sentiment
How fearful or greedy investors are right now: the EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index for eight regions and the crypto Fear & Greed Index.
EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index
How fearful or greedy investors are in each region, measured by EllTec Analysis every trading day from up to eight market indicators. 0 means extreme fear, 100 extreme greed. Extreme fear has often marked good buying opportunities, extreme greed overheated markets.
Germany
Measured on: DAX · Oct 28, 2026
40
Fear
1 week: −5 · 1 month: −5 · 1 year: −2
Components
- Momentum26Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
- Price strength80Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
- Volatility4520-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
- Safe-haven demand3620-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
- Currency1320-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.
How the index is calculated
Every indicator is compared with its own last three years: the reading becomes a percentile from 0 (the most fearful reading of the period) to 100 (the most greedy). This way each indicator is judged against what is normal for it.
The index is the average of the available indicators. Readings from 0 to 25 mean extreme fear, 25 to 45 fear, 45 to 55 neutral, 55 to 75 greed and 75 to 100 extreme greed.
Data: daily closing prices from Yahoo Finance (stock indices, ETFs, currencies; only the derived index is shown) and the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index from FRED. Recalculated once a day.
Like every sentiment gauge it describes the mood, not the future. It is most useful at the extremes and together with the analysis of the asset itself.
- Momentum: Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
- Price strength: Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
- Volatility: 20-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
- Safe-haven demand: 20-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
- Junk bond demand: 20-day return of high-yield bonds minus Treasuries. Appetite for risky bonds shows greed.
- Market breadth: Equal-weight against cap-weight S&P 500. When many stocks rise, not only the giants, the mood is broad.
- Currency: 20-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.
- Stocks vs. gold: 20-day return of stocks minus gold. A flight into gold shows fear.
- Financial stress: St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (rates, credit spreads, volatility). High stress shows fear (inverted).
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
30
Fear
as of Oct 30, 2026 · 1 week: −20 · 1 month: −41
Change in period: −4
Measures the mood in the crypto market from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), based on volatility, momentum, trading volume, social media and Bitcoin dominance. Extreme fear has often marked buying opportunities, extreme greed overheated phases.
Source: Fear & Greed Index by Alternative.me
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
A sentiment gauge for the crypto market from 0 to 100, calculated by Alternative.me. It combines volatility, price momentum, trading volume, social media activity, Bitcoin dominance and search trends into one number. 0 to 24 means extreme fear, 75 to 100 extreme greed.
What can it signal?
The index is often read against the crowd: extreme fear has historically appeared near lows, extreme greed in overheated phases near highs. It is not a timing signal, though; extreme readings can last for weeks.
What is it connected with?
Refers mainly to Bitcoin and so to the whole crypto market (Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, Litecoin, NEO) as well as Bitcoin-related stocks such as Strategy (MSTR) or Robinhood. At EllTec Analysis it complements the wave count as a sentiment check.
Weekly Market Briefing · Macro outlook Germany
Germany: ECB decision ahead as gas prices keep industry under pressure
The automatic check is bearish (score minus 25), and EllTec Analysis agrees. The ECB deposit rate of 2.50%, Bund yields near 3.5% and European gas prices more than double last year's level hit energy-intensive industry hardest. Chemicals, steel and other energy-hungry sectors suffer most, while banks and insurers gain from higher rates and exporters from the weaker euro. Lower energy prices or a clear pause signal from the ECB would improve the outlook.
Read the full outlook in the Weekly Market BriefingKey charts
Germany real GDP growth (year over year)
1.00 %
as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: +0.30 pp · 1 year: +0.60 pp
Change in period: +1.80 pp
Price-adjusted economic output of Germany, quarterly (Eurostat). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
By how many percent Germany's economic output (GDP), adjusted for prices, is above or below the level a year earlier. Published quarterly.
What can it signal?
Values below zero mean the economy is shrinking. Germany depends heavily on industry and exports and therefore reacts early to weakness in China and world trade.
What is it connected with?
Linked to German exports, energy prices, the ECB rate, the euro and German industrial and car stocks.
Germany inflation (HICP, year over year)
3.30 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.40 pp · 1 year: +1.00 pp
Change in period: −1.00 pp
Consumer prices in Germany by the EU-harmonised method (Eurostat). The ECB aims for 2 % in the euro area as a whole.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much consumer prices in Germany rose compared with the same month a year earlier, measured by the EU-harmonised method (HICP) so countries can be compared.
What can it signal?
Inflation well above 2 % erodes savings and makes the ECB lean towards higher rates. Below 2 % gives the ECB room to cut. As the largest economy, Germany carries a lot of weight in euro area inflation.
What is it connected with?
Linked to the ECB deposit rate, German Bund yields, wages, energy prices (gas, oil) and the euro. Important for German stocks and the DAX.
Euro area core inflation (HICP excluding energy and food)
2.50 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.10 pp · 1 year: +0.10 pp
Change in period: −2.00 pp
Price increases in the euro area without the volatile energy and food prices (Eurostat). The ECB watches it to judge how persistent inflation is.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much consumer prices in the euro area rose compared with a year earlier, without the volatile prices of energy and food.
What can it signal?
Inflation close to the 2% target gives the central bank room to cut rates, a tailwind for equities and bonds. Inflation well above the target forces higher rates for longer. Core inflation moves slowly and shows how deeply price pressure has spread.
What is it connected with?
Connected with the ECB's interest rate decisions, wages, energy prices and the euro. High inflation weighs on consumer spending and on the valuation of growth stocks.
Germany unemployment rate (ILO definition)
4.00 %
as of August 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: +0.20 pp
Change in period: +0.90 pp
Share of the labour force without a job, by the internationally comparable ILO method (OECD). Lower than the national figure of the Federal Employment Agency.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The share of people in Germany who want to work but have no job, counted by the international ILO method, which is why it is lower than the well-known figure of the Federal Employment Agency.
What can it signal?
If the rate rises for several months, the economy is cooling and people spend more carefully. A tight labour market, on the other hand, pushes up wages and thereby inflation.
What is it connected with?
Linked to German growth, consumer spending, wages and inflation.
German exports (monthly, USD)
157.4 bn USD
as of July 2026 · 1 month: −0.7 % · 1 year: +4.2 %
Change in period: +9.8 %
Value of goods Germany sells abroad each month, converted to US dollars (OECD). The export engine of Europe's largest economy.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The value of all goods Germany sells abroad in one month, converted into US dollars.
What can it signal?
Germany earns a large part of its wealth with exports (cars, machinery, chemicals). Falling exports show weaker demand from China, the US or Europe. Because the figure is in dollars, the EUR/USD exchange rate also affects it.
What is it connected with?
Linked to German growth, China, world trade, EUR/USD and German industrial and car stocks.
German trade balance (monthly, USD)
21.6 bn USD
as of July 2026 · 1 month: +4.4 bn USD · 1 year: +4.2 bn USD
Change in period: +2.9 bn USD
Exports minus imports of goods (OECD). Germany usually runs a large surplus; a shrinking surplus signals weaker foreign demand.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The difference between what Germany exports and what it imports. A positive value is a surplus.
What can it signal?
A large surplus shows a competitive industry but also draws criticism from the US. If the surplus shrinks because exports fall, it is a warning sign for industry. It also shrinks when energy imports surge, as in 2022.
What is it connected with?
Linked to exports, energy prices, tariffs and trade conflicts, and the euro.
German 10-year Bund yield (monthly)
3.47 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.28 pp · 1 year: +0.78 pp
Change in period: +0.81 pp
The euro area's benchmark long-term rate, important for European stocks and mortgages.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The yield on 10-year German government bonds (Bunds), as a monthly average. Bunds are considered the safest asset in the euro area.
What can it signal?
Rising yields show higher inflation expectations or a tighter ECB, falling yields a flight to safety or weaker growth. The gap to the US yield influences the EUR/USD exchange rate.
What is it connected with?
The basis for mortgages in Germany, for valuing European stocks (such as Zalando, ThyssenKrupp, Lenzing) and for the yields of other euro countries such as Italy or France.
ECB deposit rate
2.50 %
as of Oct 29, 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: +0.50 pp
Change in period: −1.50 pp
The rate banks receive for deposits at the ECB, the euro area's effective policy rate.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The deposit rate of the European Central Bank (ECB). Banks earn this rate when they park money at the ECB. Today it is the euro area's key policy rate.
What can it signal?
A rising rate means tighter policy against inflation, a falling rate is meant to support the euro area economy. The gap to the US policy rate shows whether money earns more in euros or in dollars.
What is it connected with?
Important for European stocks (such as Zalando, Lenzing, Teleperformance), German Bunds, savings rates, mortgages and the EUR/USD exchange rate.
ECB balance sheet (total assets)
5.94 tn EUR
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: +0.6 % · 1 year: −4.2 %
Change in period: −15.5 %
The euro area's counterpart to the Fed balance sheet, in EUR trillion.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The total assets of the European Central Bank, in EUR trillion.
What can it signal?
As with the Fed, a growing balance sheet (bond purchases, loans to banks) means more liquidity in the euro area, a shrinking one less. The ECB has been reducing its balance sheet since 2022.
What is it connected with?
Linked to German Bunds, yield spreads of southern European countries, the euro and European stocks.
EUR/USD exchange rate
1.1199
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: −1.7 % · 1 year: −3.6 %
Change in period: +5.2 %
US dollars per euro. Important for European investors holding US assets.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How many US dollars you get for one euro.
What can it signal?
When the rate rises, the euro strengthens and the dollar weakens. For euro area investors this means US stocks and Bitcoin lose value in euro terms even if they are flat in dollars. A falling rate works the other way.
What is it connected with?
Driven mainly by the interest-rate gap between the Fed and the ECB, the economy in both regions and risk sentiment. Important for European exporters and for the euro value of every US investment.
European natural gas (USD per MMBtu, monthly)
25.49 USD
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +21.9 % · 1 year: +131.7 %
Change in period: +123.1 %
Gas price in Europe; drives energy costs for European industry and households.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The natural gas price in Europe (TTF benchmark in the Netherlands), in US dollars per MMBtu, as a monthly average from the International Monetary Fund.
What can it signal?
Europe relies heavily on imported gas. High prices, as in 2022, hurt industry and households and drive euro area inflation. The gap to the US gas price shows European industry's cost disadvantage.
What is it connected with?
Linked to euro area inflation, the ECB, European industrial stocks (ThyssenKrupp, Lenzing, Corbion) and the US gas price (Henry Hub) through LNG exports.
Brent crude oil (USD per barrel)
123.10 USD
as of Oct 27, 2026 · 1 month: +6.1 % · 1 year: +87.9 %
Change in period: +35.7 %
Energy prices feed directly into inflation and into ethanol economics for sugar.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The price of one barrel (159 litres) of North Sea Brent crude in US dollars. Brent is the most important global oil benchmark.
What can it signal?
Sharply rising oil prices push up inflation, squeeze consumers and companies and can delay rate cuts. Sharply falling prices often point to weak demand and a cooling global economy.
What is it connected with?
Affects inflation, airlines (such as Wizz Air), chemicals and transport. Through ethanol, oil also influences the sugar price. Geopolitical crises in the Middle East often move the price strongly.
Spread Italy vs. Germany (10-year yields, monthly)
+0.80 pp
as of August 2026 · 1 month: −0.01 pp · 1 year: −0.06 pp
Change in period: −0.88 pp
How much more Italy pays than Germany to borrow for 10 years. The euro area's classic stress gauge.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How many percentage points more interest Italy pays on a 10-year government bond than Germany, the euro area's safest borrower.
What can it signal?
A widening spread signals worries about Italy's debt or the cohesion of the euro area (as in the euro crisis of 2011/2012). A narrowing spread signals confidence. If it jumps sharply, the ECB often steps in.
What is it connected with?
Linked to European bank stocks, the euro, Italian politics and the ECB.
China exports (monthly, USD)
396.3 bn USD
as of August 2026 · 1 month: +2.3 % · 1 year: +24.9 %
Change in period: +44.2 %
Value of goods China sells abroad each month (OECD). The world's largest exporter; a barometer of global goods demand.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The value of all goods China sells abroad in one month, in US dollars. China is the world's largest exporter.
What can it signal?
Rising exports show strong global demand for goods. Tariffs or a weak world economy push the figure down. Chinese exports in January and February swing strongly because of the New Year holiday.
What is it connected with?
Linked to world trade, tariffs, the yuan (USD/CNY), commodities and emerging markets.
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (data from the Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis, Chicago, Cleveland, Atlanta, Dallas and Kansas City, U.S. Treasury, BLS, BEA, Census Bureau, Department of Labor, FHFA, EIA, ECB, Eurostat, OECD, IMF, Bank of Japan and Freddie Mac). Rates of change are calculated year over year from the underlying indices; net liquidity is the Fed balance sheet minus the Treasury General Account and reverse repos. Last refreshed: Oct 30, 2026. For information only, not investment advice.