EllTec Analysis
Macro dashboard: Oceania
Australia and New Zealand: interest rates, jobs, growth, their currencies and the commodity exports to Asia (iron ore, coal, gas, copper) that drive them.
What it means for equities
Refers to: Australian and New Zealand equities (S&P/ASX 200, All Ordinaries, NZX 50)
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EllTec Analysis view · as of Oct 26, 2026
Neutral
The automatic check is bullish (score 20), driven by copper, strong Chinese imports and an Australian dollar firmer than a year ago. EllTec Analysis rates the region neutral: miners and energy producers benefit from high commodity prices, while retailers, real estate and other rate-sensitive sectors suffer from a short-term rate of 4.35% and long-term yields above 5%. Rising unemployment would add to the pressure. A clear signal that the rate cycle is over would improve the view, falling metal prices would worsen it.
Automatic macro check
BullishScore +20 · 10 indicators · 5 tailwinds · 3 headwinds
Bullish: the macro backdrop is a tailwind for equities.
| Indicator | Latest | Reading | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia short-term interest rate (monthly) | 4.35 % | Up 0.7 pp in 12 months: money is more expensive than a year ago. | Headwind |
| Australia 10-year government bond yield (monthly) | 5.28 % | Up 1.0 pp in 12 months: higher long-term rates weigh on valuations. | Headwind |
| Australia exports (monthly, USD) | 33.8 bn USD | 28.1% higher than a year ago: trade is growing. | Tailwind |
| Australia unemployment rate (monthly) | 4.65 % | At 4.6% and little changed over 12 months. | Neutral |
| Australia real GDP growth (year over year) | 2.10 % | 2.1% growth: a solid base for company earnings. | Tailwind |
| AUD/USD (US dollars per Australian dollar) | 0.7037 | The local currency gained about 8.0% against the dollar in 12 months: money is flowing in. | Tailwind |
| New Zealand 10-year government bond yield (monthly) | 4.94 % | Up 0.7 pp in 12 months: higher long-term rates weigh on valuations. | Headwind |
| Iron ore (USD per tonne, monthly) | 100.44 USD | Roughly stable (−5.6% in 12 months). | Neutral |
| Copper (USD per tonne, monthly) | 14,473.06 USD | Up 44.8% in 12 months: strong industrial demand. | Tailwind |
| China imports (monthly, USD) | 282.5 bn USD | 28.1% higher than a year ago: trade is growing. | Tailwind |
How to read this
The automatic check rates each indicator by a fixed, transparent rule: for example, falling policy rates, inflation close to target, growing exports or falling unemployment count as a tailwind for equities, the opposite as a headwind.
The score is the average of all ratings from −100 (every indicator a headwind) to +100 (every indicator a tailwind). Above +20 counts as bullish, below −20 as bearish, in between as neutral. It is recalculated from the latest data on every visit.
The macro backdrop says whether a market has a tailwind or a headwind, not where it will be next week. EllTec Analysis combines it with fundamentals and the technical structure in every analysis. No investment advice.
Market Sentiment
How fearful or greedy investors are right now: the EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index for eight regions and the crypto Fear & Greed Index.
EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index
How fearful or greedy investors are in each region, measured by EllTec Analysis every trading day from up to eight market indicators. 0 means extreme fear, 100 extreme greed. Extreme fear has often marked good buying opportunities, extreme greed overheated markets.
Oceania
Measured on: S&P/ASX 200 · Oct 30, 2026
63
Greed
1 week: +20 · 1 month: +19 · 1 year: +11
Components
- Momentum39Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
- Price strength63Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
- Volatility8920-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
- Safe-haven demand6020-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
- Currency6620-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.
How the index is calculated
Every indicator is compared with its own last three years: the reading becomes a percentile from 0 (the most fearful reading of the period) to 100 (the most greedy). This way each indicator is judged against what is normal for it.
The index is the average of the available indicators. Readings from 0 to 25 mean extreme fear, 25 to 45 fear, 45 to 55 neutral, 55 to 75 greed and 75 to 100 extreme greed.
Data: daily closing prices from Yahoo Finance (stock indices, ETFs, currencies; only the derived index is shown) and the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index from FRED. Recalculated once a day.
Like every sentiment gauge it describes the mood, not the future. It is most useful at the extremes and together with the analysis of the asset itself.
- Momentum: Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
- Price strength: Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
- Volatility: 20-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
- Safe-haven demand: 20-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
- Junk bond demand: 20-day return of high-yield bonds minus Treasuries. Appetite for risky bonds shows greed.
- Market breadth: Equal-weight against cap-weight S&P 500. When many stocks rise, not only the giants, the mood is broad.
- Currency: 20-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.
- Stocks vs. gold: 20-day return of stocks minus gold. A flight into gold shows fear.
- Financial stress: St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (rates, credit spreads, volatility). High stress shows fear (inverted).
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
30
Fear
as of Oct 30, 2026 · 1 week: −20 · 1 month: −41
Change in period: −4
Measures the mood in the crypto market from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), based on volatility, momentum, trading volume, social media and Bitcoin dominance. Extreme fear has often marked buying opportunities, extreme greed overheated phases.
Source: Fear & Greed Index by Alternative.me
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
A sentiment gauge for the crypto market from 0 to 100, calculated by Alternative.me. It combines volatility, price momentum, trading volume, social media activity, Bitcoin dominance and search trends into one number. 0 to 24 means extreme fear, 75 to 100 extreme greed.
What can it signal?
The index is often read against the crowd: extreme fear has historically appeared near lows, extreme greed in overheated phases near highs. It is not a timing signal, though; extreme readings can last for weeks.
What is it connected with?
Refers mainly to Bitcoin and so to the whole crypto market (Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, Litecoin, NEO) as well as Bitcoin-related stocks such as Strategy (MSTR) or Robinhood. At EllTec Analysis it complements the wave count as a sentiment check.
Weekly Market Briefing · Macro outlook Oceania
Australia and New Zealand: high yields weigh, copper and Chinese demand support
The automatic check is bullish (score 20), driven by copper, strong Chinese imports and an Australian dollar firmer than a year ago. EllTec Analysis rates the region neutral: miners and energy producers benefit from high commodity prices, while retailers, real estate and other rate-sensitive sectors suffer from a short-term rate of 4.35% and long-term yields above 5%. Rising unemployment would add to the pressure. A clear signal that the rate cycle is over would improve the view, falling metal prices would worsen it.
Read the full outlook in the Weekly Market BriefingKey charts
Australia short-term interest rate (monthly)
4.35 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: +0.75 pp
Change in period: +0.25 pp
The overnight or call money rate in Australia (OECD), which closely follows the central bank's policy rate.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The short-term money market rate in Australia, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.
What can it signal?
A falling rate means the central bank is easing to support growth, which is usually a tailwind for equities. A rising rate means it is fighting inflation or defending the currency, which tightens financial conditions.
What is it connected with?
Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in Australia.
Australia 10-year government bond yield (monthly)
5.28 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.27 pp · 1 year: +0.99 pp
Change in period: +1.07 pp
Long-term rates in Australia, whose economy depends heavily on exports of iron ore, coal and gas to China.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The yield on 10-year Australian government bonds, monthly average.
What can it signal?
Australia relies heavily on exports of iron ore, coal and gas to China. Its yields therefore also reflect Chinese demand and inflation in Australia.
What is it connected with?
Linked to the All Ordinaries index, the Australian dollar, iron ore and coal. Important for Australian names such as Vulcan Energy.
Australia unemployment rate (monthly)
4.65 %
as of August 2026 · 1 month: +0.16 pp · 1 year: +0.43 pp
Change in period: +0.98 pp
Share of the labour force in Australia that is looking for work (OECD). A clear rise is an early sign of a weakening economy.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The share of people in the labour force of Australia who are looking for work, in percent.
What can it signal?
What matters most is the direction: a clear rise over a few months often comes early in a downturn, a steady fall shows a strong economy. A very low level can also mean wage pressure and therefore inflation.
What is it connected with?
Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in Australia.
Australia real GDP growth (year over year)
2.10 %
as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: −0.40 pp · 1 year: +0.20 pp
Change in period: −0.10 pp
Price-adjusted economic output of Australia, quarterly (IMF). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much the price-adjusted economic output of Australia grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
What can it signal?
Growth well above zero supports company profits and the stock market. Two weak quarters in a row or a fall below zero point to a recession. Because GDP is published with a delay, it confirms a trend rather than forecasting it.
What is it connected with?
Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for Australia.
Australia exports (monthly, USD)
33.8 bn USD
as of August 2026 · 1 month: +6.5 % · 1 year: +28.1 %
Change in period: +12.8 %
Value of the goods Australia sells abroad each month (OECD), mainly iron ore, coal, gas and gold, much of it to China.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The value of the goods Australia sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly iron ore, coal, gas and gold, much of it to China.
What can it signal?
Rising exports show strong demand for what the country produces and bring in foreign currency; a clear fall compared with a year earlier often comes with weaker global demand or falling commodity prices, and weighs on the currency and on export-heavy companies.
What is it connected with?
Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.
Australia house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)
5.70 %
as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: +1.50 pp · 1 year: +3.70 pp
Change in period: +18.00 pp
Residential property prices in Australia after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much residential property prices in Australia changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).
What can it signal?
Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.
What is it connected with?
Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Australia.
AUD/USD (US dollars per Australian dollar)
0.7037
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: +0.0 % · 1 year: +8.0 %
Change in period: +11.0 %
The Australian dollar tracks metals and China's demand; it is seen as a barometer of global risk appetite.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How many US dollars you get for one Australian dollar. A rising value means a stronger Australian dollar.
What can it signal?
The Australian dollar follows iron ore, coal and Chinese demand. It often rises when investors take risk and falls in crises, which makes it a barometer of global risk appetite.
What is it connected with?
Linked to iron ore, copper, China, the All Ordinaries index and risky assets in general.
New Zealand 10-year government bond yield (monthly)
4.94 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.23 pp · 1 year: +0.65 pp
Change in period: −0.11 pp
The long-term interest rate of New Zealand (OECD). Rising yields make borrowing more expensive and compete with equities for investors' money.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The yield investors earn per year on a 10-year government bond of New Zealand, as a monthly average. It is the country's long-term interest rate.
What can it signal?
Rising yields mean investors expect more inflation or demand more compensation for risk, which makes loans more expensive and weighs on equity valuations. Falling yields usually point to lower inflation, expected rate cuts or a flight to safety.
What is it connected with?
Connected with the central bank's policy rate, inflation, government debt and the currency. For the stock market of New Zealand, rising long-term rates are a headwind, especially for growth stocks, real estate and utilities, while banks often benefit.
NZD/USD (US dollars per New Zealand dollar)
0.5705
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: +0.6 % · 1 year: −0.8 %
Change in period: −2.4 %
The currency of New Zealand against the dollar. Rising = stronger local currency.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The exchange rate NZD/USD: how many US dollars one unit of the local currency costs.
What can it signal?
A falling line means a weaker currency for New Zealand. A weak currency helps exporters, but makes imports more expensive and can drive money out of the country. A sharp, fast depreciation is often a warning sign for the local stock and bond market.
What is it connected with?
Connected with interest rate differences to the US, the US dollar overall, commodity prices and the risk appetite of global investors. For investors from abroad, the currency adds to or subtracts from the return of local shares.
Iron ore (USD per tonne, monthly)
100.44 USD
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.8 % · 1 year: −5.6 %
Change in period: −16.6 %
World price of iron ore (IMF). China buys most of the world's iron ore for steel, so the price mirrors its construction sector.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The world price of iron ore in US dollars per tonne, as a monthly average from the International Monetary Fund. Iron ore is turned into steel.
What can it signal?
China uses more than half of the world's iron ore, mainly for construction and infrastructure, so the price is a good mirror of China's construction and property sector.
What is it connected with?
Linked to China, Australia and Brazil as exporters, mining and steel stocks, and copper.
Coal, Australia (IMF, USD per tonne, monthly)
153.84 USD
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +9.5 % · 1 year: +36.7 %
Change in period: −8.7 %
Thermal coal price for Asia; still a large part of power generation in China, India and Japan.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The price of Australian thermal coal in USD per tonne (monthly average, IMF data).
What can it signal?
Coal is still a large part of power generation in Asia. High prices show tight energy supply, often together with expensive gas.
What is it connected with?
Linked to natural gas and LNG, the Australian dollar, China and steelmaking (for example Thyssenkrupp).
LNG Asia, Japan (IMF, USD per MMBtu, monthly)
26.64 USD
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +20.9 % · 1 year: +136.2 %
Change in period: +102.5 %
Price of liquefied natural gas delivered to Japan; competes with Europe for the same cargoes.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivered to Japan, in USD per MMBtu (monthly average, IMF data).
What can it signal?
Europe and Asia compete for the same LNG tankers. When the price rises in Asia, gas in Europe gets more expensive too, which weighs on energy-intensive industries and drives inflation.
What is it connected with?
Linked to the European gas price, US natural gas (Henry Hub), oil prices and industrial names such as Thyssenkrupp or Lenzing.
Copper (USD per tonne, monthly)
14,473.06 USD
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +1.0 % · 1 year: +44.8 %
Change in period: +74.9 %
Called Dr. Copper because its price often reflects the health of the global economy.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The world price of copper, in US dollars per tonne, as a monthly average from the International Monetary Fund.
What can it signal?
Copper is used in power grids, buildings, cars and electronics. Because demand is so broad, its price is seen as an economic barometer (Dr. Copper). Rising prices point to growth, sharply falling ones to a slowdown, especially in China.
What is it connected with?
Linked to China and the yuan, electric vehicles and the energy transition (such as XPeng, Vulcan Energy, Canadian Solar), industrial stocks and industrial production.
World metals price index (IMF, monthly)
237.73
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +1.7 % · 1 year: +23.4 %
Change in period: +30.1 %
IMF index of copper, aluminium, iron ore, nickel, zinc, lead, tin and uranium (2016 = 100). A broad gauge of industrial demand, especially from China.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The IMF index of world metal prices (copper, aluminium, iron ore, nickel, zinc, lead, tin and uranium), 2016 = 100.
What can it signal?
Rising metal prices usually reflect strong industrial demand, especially from China, and the build-out of power grids and electric cars. A clear fall points to a slowing world economy.
What is it connected with?
Linked to China's economy, mining stocks, the currencies of exporters such as Australia, Chile, Brazil and South Africa, and inflation.
China imports (monthly, USD)
282.5 bn USD
as of August 2026 · 1 month: +1.0 % · 1 year: +28.1 %
Change in period: +35.3 %
Value of goods China buys abroad each month (OECD): raw materials, energy, chips. A gauge of Chinese domestic demand.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The value of all goods China buys abroad in one month, mainly raw materials, energy, food and chips.
What can it signal?
China's imports show how strong demand is inside the country. Falling imports point to weak construction and industry and weigh on commodity prices and on countries such as Australia, Brazil or Germany.
What is it connected with?
Linked to iron ore, copper, oil, agricultural commodities, German exports and commodity currencies.
China house prices (real, YoY, quarterly)
-7.10 %
as of Q1 2026 · 1 month: −0.80 pp · 1 year: +0.30 pp
Change in period: −2.50 pp
Residential property prices in China after inflation (Bank for International Settlements). Falling prices weigh on household wealth, banks and construction.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much residential property prices in China changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).
What can it signal?
Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.
What is it connected with?
Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in China.
Uranium (IMF, USD per pound, monthly)
72.47 USD
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +1.9 % · 1 year: +15.3 %
Change in period: +36.2 %
Fuel for nuclear power plants; driven by new reactors and supply from Kazakhstan and Canada.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The world price of uranium in USD per pound (monthly average, IMF data).
What can it signal?
New nuclear plants, longer reactor lives and power demand from data centres drive demand. Supply depends on a few countries such as Kazakhstan and Canada, so the price can swing strongly.
What is it connected with?
Linked to energy policy, power demand from AI data centres and energy stocks.
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (data from the Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis, Chicago, Cleveland, Atlanta, Dallas and Kansas City, U.S. Treasury, BLS, BEA, Census Bureau, Department of Labor, FHFA, EIA, ECB, Eurostat, OECD, IMF, Bank of Japan and Freddie Mac). Rates of change are calculated year over year from the underlying indices; net liquidity is the Fed balance sheet minus the Treasury General Account and reverse repos. Last refreshed: Oct 30, 2026. For information only, not investment advice.