Macro dashboard: Asia

What does the chart show?

The rate at which banks in Japan lend to each other overnight, steered by the Bank of Japan's policy rate. For decades it was near zero or even below.

What can it signal?

When Japan raises rates, the yen becomes more attractive and the so-called carry trade, where investors borrow cheaply in yen to buy stocks or crypto, pays less. In August 2024 its unwinding caused sharp falls worldwide.

What is it connected with?

Linked to USD/JPY, Japanese yields, global stock markets and crypto.

What does the chart show?

The yield on a 10-year Japanese government bond. For a long time the Bank of Japan kept it artificially near zero.

What can it signal?

Japanese investors hold huge amounts of foreign bonds and stocks. When yields in Japan rise, money can flow back home, which can push yields up worldwide.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the yen, US yields, Japan's overnight rate and global bond markets.

What does the chart show?

Price-adjusted growth of Japan's economy compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

Japan usually grows slowly because of its ageing population. Weak growth makes further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan less likely.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the yen, Japanese stocks (Nikkei), exports and the Bank of Japan.

What does the chart show?

Japan's unemployment rate by the internationally comparable method.

What can it signal?

Japan has had one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world for decades because its population is shrinking and workers are scarce. A tight labour market pushes wages and gives the Bank of Japan room to raise rates.

What is it connected with?

Linked to wages and inflation in Japan, the Bank of Japan and the yen.

What does the chart show?

The value of all assets held by Japan's central bank, in trillion yen. Through purchases of government bonds, equity funds and more, its balance sheet is larger than Japan's entire annual economic output.

What can it signal?

A growing balance sheet means fresh money in the system. When the Bank of Japan starts shrinking it, it withdraws liquidity from the market, much like the Fed's balance sheet reduction.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the Fed and ECB balance sheets, global liquidity, the yen and Japanese bonds.

What does the chart show?

The value of all goods Japan sells abroad in one month, in US dollars.

What can it signal?

Japan's exports (cars, machinery, chip-making equipment) are a good gauge of industry in Asia and worldwide. A weak yen makes Japanese goods cheaper but lowers their dollar value.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the yen, China, the US, carmakers and the chip industry.

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in Japan changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in Japan.

What does the chart show?

How many Japanese yen one US dollar costs.

What can it signal?

A rising value means a weaker yen. Because Japan kept rates near zero for years, investors borrow cheaply there and invest elsewhere (carry trade). If the yen suddenly strengthens, these trades must be unwound, which can trigger sell-offs worldwide, as in August 2024.

What is it connected with?

Linked to Bank of Japan and Fed rates, the Japanese stock market, exporters and global risk appetite.

What does the chart show?

The value of all goods China sells abroad in one month, in US dollars. China is the world's largest exporter.

What can it signal?

Rising exports show strong global demand for goods. Tariffs or a weak world economy push the figure down. Chinese exports in January and February swing strongly because of the New Year holiday.

What is it connected with?

Linked to world trade, tariffs, the yuan (USD/CNY), commodities and emerging markets.

What does the chart show?

The value of all goods China buys abroad in one month, mainly raw materials, energy, food and chips.

What can it signal?

China's imports show how strong demand is inside the country. Falling imports point to weak construction and industry and weigh on commodity prices and on countries such as Australia, Brazil or Germany.

What is it connected with?

Linked to iron ore, copper, oil, agricultural commodities, German exports and commodity currencies.

What does the chart show?

China's exports minus imports per month. China has run huge surpluses for years.

What can it signal?

A growing surplus can show a strong export industry but also weak domestic demand. Very large surpluses often lead to tariffs and trade disputes with the US and Europe.

What is it connected with?

Linked to tariffs, the yuan, China's foreign exchange reserves and world trade.

What does the chart show?

China's foreign currency and gold reserves, in trillion US dollars, the largest in the world.

What can it signal?

The reserves show how much firepower China has to support the yuan. A sharp drop, as in 2015/2016, pointed to capital flight and pressure on the currency.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the yuan, US Treasuries, China's trade surplus and central bank gold buying.

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in China changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in China.

What does the chart show?

How many Chinese yuan (renminbi) one US dollar costs. The rate is managed by China's central bank within a band.

What can it signal?

A rising value means a weaker yuan, often a sign of weak growth in China, capital outflows or trade tensions with the US. A stronger yuan shows confidence in the Chinese economy.

What is it connected with?

Linked to Chinese stocks (Alibaba, JD.com, Baidu, Tencent Music, XPeng, Vipshop), the Hang Seng Index, commodity demand (copper, oil) and trade policy.

What does the chart show?

The exchange rate USD/HKD: how many units of the local currency one US dollar costs.

What can it signal?

A rising line means a weaker currency for Hong Kong. A weak currency helps exporters, but makes imports more expensive and can drive money out of the country. A sharp, fast depreciation is often a warning sign for the local stock and bond market.

What is it connected with?

Connected with interest rate differences to the US, the US dollar overall, commodity prices and the risk appetite of global investors. For investors from abroad, the currency adds to or subtracts from the return of local shares.

What does the chart show?

The short-term money market rate in South Korea, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.

What can it signal?

A falling rate means the central bank is easing to support growth, which is usually a tailwind for equities. A rising rate means it is fighting inflation or defending the currency, which tightens financial conditions.

What is it connected with?

Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in South Korea.

What does the chart show?

The yield investors earn per year on a 10-year government bond of South Korea, as a monthly average. It is the country's long-term interest rate.

What can it signal?

Rising yields mean investors expect more inflation or demand more compensation for risk, which makes loans more expensive and weighs on equity valuations. Falling yields usually point to lower inflation, expected rate cuts or a flight to safety.

What is it connected with?

Connected with the central bank's policy rate, inflation, government debt and the currency. For the stock market of South Korea, rising long-term rates are a headwind, especially for growth stocks, real estate and utilities, while banks often benefit.

What does the chart show?

The share of people in the labour force of South Korea who are looking for work, in percent.

What can it signal?

What matters most is the direction: a clear rise over a few months often comes early in a downturn, a steady fall shows a strong economy. A very low level can also mean wage pressure and therefore inflation.

What is it connected with?

Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in South Korea.

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods South Korea sells abroad each month, in US dollars.

What can it signal?

Rising exports show strong global demand, especially for semiconductors and electronics; a clear fall compared with a year earlier often comes early in a global slowdown.

What is it connected with?

Connected with global trade, technology stocks, China, the US economy and the won. A useful early read on the earnings of export-heavy companies in Asia.

What does the chart show?

How much the price-adjusted economic output of South Korea grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

What can it signal?

Growth well above zero supports company profits and the stock market. Two weak quarters in a row or a fall below zero point to a recession. Because GDP is published with a delay, it confirms a trend rather than forecasting it.

What is it connected with?

Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for South Korea.

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in South Korea changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in South Korea.

What does the chart show?

How many South Korean won you get for one US dollar. A rising value means a weaker won.

What can it signal?

With companies such as Samsung and SK Hynix, South Korea is a hub of the chip industry and heavily export-dependent, so the won is seen as an early indicator: it often weakens before world trade cools.

What is it connected with?

Linked to semiconductor stocks, world trade, China and the US dollar.

What does the chart show?

The short-term money market rate in India, which follows the central bank's policy rate closely.

What can it signal?

A falling rate means the central bank is easing to support growth, which is usually a tailwind for equities. A rising rate means it is fighting inflation or defending the currency, which tightens financial conditions.

What is it connected with?

Connected with inflation, the currency against the US dollar and the long-term bond yield. Important for banks, consumers and companies with a lot of debt in India.

What does the chart show?

The yield investors earn per year on a 10-year government bond of India, as a monthly average. It is the country's long-term interest rate.

What can it signal?

Rising yields mean investors expect more inflation or demand more compensation for risk, which makes loans more expensive and weighs on equity valuations. Falling yields usually point to lower inflation, expected rate cuts or a flight to safety.

What is it connected with?

Connected with the central bank's policy rate, inflation, government debt and the currency. For the stock market of India, rising long-term rates are a headwind, especially for growth stocks, real estate and utilities, while banks often benefit.

What does the chart show?

The value of the goods India sells abroad each month, in US dollars: mainly refined fuels, pharmaceuticals, jewellery, machinery and electronics.

What can it signal?

Rising exports show strong demand for what the country produces and bring in foreign currency; a clear fall compared with a year earlier often comes with weaker global demand or falling commodity prices, and weighs on the currency and on export-heavy companies.

What is it connected with?

Connected with global trade, the prices of the goods it sells, the economies of its main customers and its currency against the US dollar.

What does the chart show?

How much residential property prices in India changed within a year, after inflation (quarterly data of the Bank for International Settlements).

What can it signal?

Rising real house prices increase household wealth and support spending and bank lending. A clear fall, as in China since 2021, weakens consumers, construction and banks and can drag on the whole economy for years.

What is it connected with?

Connected with mortgage rates, the central bank's policy, household debt, construction and bank stocks in India.

What does the chart show?

How many Indian rupees you get for one US dollar. A rising value means a weaker rupee.

What can it signal?

India is one of the fastest-growing large economies. A sharply weaker rupee shows capital outflows, often when the dollar and US rates rise or oil is expensive, since India imports a lot of oil.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the US dollar index, the oil price and emerging market stocks.

What does the chart show?

The exchange rate USD/SGD: how many units of the local currency one US dollar costs.

What can it signal?

A rising line means a weaker currency for Singapore. A weak currency helps exporters, but makes imports more expensive and can drive money out of the country. A sharp, fast depreciation is often a warning sign for the local stock and bond market.

What is it connected with?

Connected with interest rate differences to the US, the US dollar overall, commodity prices and the risk appetite of global investors. For investors from abroad, the currency adds to or subtracts from the return of local shares.

What does the chart show?

The exchange rate USD/TWD: how many units of the local currency one US dollar costs.

What can it signal?

A rising line means a weaker currency for Taiwan. A weak currency helps exporters, but makes imports more expensive and can drive money out of the country. A sharp, fast depreciation is often a warning sign for the local stock and bond market.

What is it connected with?

Connected with interest rate differences to the US, the US dollar overall, commodity prices and the risk appetite of global investors. For investors from abroad, the currency adds to or subtracts from the return of local shares.

What does the chart show?

The exchange rate USD/THB: how many units of the local currency one US dollar costs.

What can it signal?

A rising line means a weaker currency for Thailand. A weak currency helps exporters, but makes imports more expensive and can drive money out of the country. A sharp, fast depreciation is often a warning sign for the local stock and bond market.

What is it connected with?

Connected with interest rate differences to the US, the US dollar overall, commodity prices and the risk appetite of global investors. For investors from abroad, the currency adds to or subtracts from the return of local shares.

What does the chart show?

The exchange rate USD/MYR: how many units of the local currency one US dollar costs.

What can it signal?

A rising line means a weaker currency for Malaysia. A weak currency helps exporters, but makes imports more expensive and can drive money out of the country. A sharp, fast depreciation is often a warning sign for the local stock and bond market.

What is it connected with?

Connected with interest rate differences to the US, the US dollar overall, commodity prices and the risk appetite of global investors. For investors from abroad, the currency adds to or subtracts from the return of local shares.

What does the chart show?

The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivered to Japan, in USD per MMBtu (monthly average, IMF data).

What can it signal?

Europe and Asia compete for the same LNG tankers. When the price rises in Asia, gas in Europe gets more expensive too, which weighs on energy-intensive industries and drives inflation.

What is it connected with?

Linked to the European gas price, US natural gas (Henry Hub), oil prices and industrial names such as Thyssenkrupp or Lenzing.

What does the chart show?

The monthly average price of Dubai crude oil in US dollars per barrel, the benchmark for oil from the Persian Gulf sold to Asia.

What can it signal?

A high price fills the budgets of Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and other Gulf states and supports their spending and stock markets; it burdens Asian importers such as India, Japan and Korea.

What is it connected with?

Linked to Brent and WTI, OPEC decisions, tensions in the Middle East, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and inflation in Asia.

What does the chart show?

The world price of iron ore in US dollars per tonne, as a monthly average from the International Monetary Fund. Iron ore is turned into steel.

What can it signal?

China uses more than half of the world's iron ore, mainly for construction and infrastructure, so the price is a good mirror of China's construction and property sector.

What is it connected with?

Linked to China, Australia and Brazil as exporters, mining and steel stocks, and copper.

What does the chart show?

The world price of copper, in US dollars per tonne, as a monthly average from the International Monetary Fund.

What can it signal?

Copper is used in power grids, buildings, cars and electronics. Because demand is so broad, its price is seen as an economic barometer (Dr. Copper). Rising prices point to growth, sharply falling ones to a slowdown, especially in China.

What is it connected with?

Linked to China and the yuan, electric vehicles and the energy transition (such as XPeng, Vulcan Energy, Canadian Solar), industrial stocks and industrial production.

What does the chart show?

The IMF index of world metal prices (copper, aluminium, iron ore, nickel, zinc, lead, tin and uranium), 2016 = 100.

What can it signal?

Rising metal prices usually reflect strong industrial demand, especially from China, and the build-out of power grids and electric cars. A clear fall points to a slowing world economy.

What is it connected with?

Linked to China's economy, mining stocks, the currencies of exporters such as Australia, Chile, Brazil and South Africa, and inflation.

What does the chart show?

The trade-weighted value of the US dollar against the currencies of emerging economies such as China, Mexico, India, Brazil and Korea.

What can it signal?

A rising line means emerging market currencies are losing value. That makes their dollar debts more expensive, drives capital out and usually weighs on their stock markets. A falling dollar is a tailwind for emerging markets.

What is it connected with?

Linked to US interest rates, global risk appetite, commodity prices and capital flows into emerging markets.

What does the chart show?

The value of the US dollar against a broad basket of currencies of major trading partners, calculated by the Fed.

What can it signal?

A strong dollar makes it more expensive for the rest of the world to service dollar debt and buy commodities priced in dollars. A weaker dollar acts like an easing of global financial conditions.

What is it connected with?

Usually moves opposite to commodities (gold, oil, sugar, coffee), emerging market stocks (for example South Africa or China) and Bitcoin. For euro investors it directly affects the return on US assets.