EllTec Analysis
Macro dashboard: Europe
The euro area and its neighbours: ECB policy, inflation, growth and jobs in the big economies, sovereign spreads, the UK, Switzerland, Scandinavia and Poland.
What it means for equities
Refers to: European equities (Stoxx 600, Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, SMI, AEX)
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EllTec Analysis view · as of Oct 26, 2026
Neutral
The automatic check is neutral (score minus 10), and EllTec Analysis agrees. Moderate core inflation of 2.5% and euro area growth of 1.2% support earnings, but higher rates and expensive gas weigh on valuations and industry. Energy producers, banks and insurers benefit, while chemicals, real estate and energy-intensive manufacturers suffer. Falling gas prices would improve the view, a new energy spike or a wider French yield spread would worsen it.
Automatic macro check
NeutralScore -10 · 10 indicators · 3 tailwinds · 4 headwinds
Neutral: tailwinds and headwinds roughly balance.
| Indicator | Latest | Reading | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECB deposit rate | 2.50 % | Raised by 0.3 pp in the last months: the central bank is tightening again. | Headwind |
| German 10-year Bund yield (monthly) | 3.47 % | Up 0.8 pp in 12 months: higher long-term rates weigh on valuations. | Headwind |
| Euro area core inflation (HICP excluding energy and food) | 2.50 % | At 2.5% close to the 2% target: room for lower rates. | Tailwind |
| Euro area real GDP growth (year over year) | 1.20 % | 1.2% growth: a solid base for company earnings. | Tailwind |
| Italy unemployment rate (ILO definition) | 6.20 % | Up 0.5 pp in 12 months: the labour market is weakening. | Headwind |
| Spread Italy vs. Germany (10-year yields, monthly) | +0.80 pp | At 0.8 pp and little changed: no sign of stress. | Neutral |
| Spread France vs. Germany (10-year yields, monthly) | +1.01 pp | At 1.0 pp and little changed: no sign of stress. | Neutral |
| European natural gas (USD per MMBtu, monthly) | 25.49 USD | Energy is 131.7% more expensive than a year ago: a cost burden for companies and consumers. | Headwind |
| UK overnight interbank rate (monthly) | 3.73 % | Little changed over 12 months: monetary policy is on hold. | Neutral |
| UK real GDP growth (year over year) | 1.20 % | 1.2% growth: a solid base for company earnings. | Tailwind |
How to read this
The automatic check rates each indicator by a fixed, transparent rule: for example, falling policy rates, inflation close to target, growing exports or falling unemployment count as a tailwind for equities, the opposite as a headwind.
The score is the average of all ratings from −100 (every indicator a headwind) to +100 (every indicator a tailwind). Above +20 counts as bullish, below −20 as bearish, in between as neutral. It is recalculated from the latest data on every visit.
The macro backdrop says whether a market has a tailwind or a headwind, not where it will be next week. EllTec Analysis combines it with fundamentals and the technical structure in every analysis. No investment advice.
Market Sentiment
How fearful or greedy investors are right now: the EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index for eight regions and the crypto Fear & Greed Index.
EllTec Analysis Fear & Greed Index
How fearful or greedy investors are in each region, measured by EllTec Analysis every trading day from up to eight market indicators. 0 means extreme fear, 100 extreme greed. Extreme fear has often marked good buying opportunities, extreme greed overheated markets.
Europe
Measured on: Euro Stoxx 50 · Oct 28, 2026
27
Fear
1 week: −10 · 1 month: −24 · 1 year: −36
Components
- Momentum13Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
- Price strength63Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
- Volatility3620-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
- Safe-haven demand1020-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
- Currency1320-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.
How the index is calculated
Every indicator is compared with its own last three years: the reading becomes a percentile from 0 (the most fearful reading of the period) to 100 (the most greedy). This way each indicator is judged against what is normal for it.
The index is the average of the available indicators. Readings from 0 to 25 mean extreme fear, 25 to 45 fear, 45 to 55 neutral, 55 to 75 greed and 75 to 100 extreme greed.
Data: daily closing prices from Yahoo Finance (stock indices, ETFs, currencies; only the derived index is shown) and the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index from FRED. Recalculated once a day.
Like every sentiment gauge it describes the mood, not the future. It is most useful at the extremes and together with the analysis of the asset itself.
- Momentum: Price against its 125-day average. A market far above its average shows greed.
- Price strength: Position of the price within its 52-week range: 100 at the high, 0 at the low.
- Volatility: 20-day volatility against its one-year average. Rising volatility shows fear (inverted).
- Safe-haven demand: 20-day return of stocks minus US Treasuries. When investors flee into bonds, fear rises.
- Junk bond demand: 20-day return of high-yield bonds minus Treasuries. Appetite for risky bonds shows greed.
- Market breadth: Equal-weight against cap-weight S&P 500. When many stocks rise, not only the giants, the mood is broad.
- Currency: 20-day change of the local currency against the US dollar. Money flowing in strengthens the currency.
- Stocks vs. gold: 20-day return of stocks minus gold. A flight into gold shows fear.
- Financial stress: St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (rates, credit spreads, volatility). High stress shows fear (inverted).
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
30
Fear
as of Oct 30, 2026 · 1 week: −20 · 1 month: −41
Change in period: −4
Measures the mood in the crypto market from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), based on volatility, momentum, trading volume, social media and Bitcoin dominance. Extreme fear has often marked buying opportunities, extreme greed overheated phases.
Source: Fear & Greed Index by Alternative.me
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
A sentiment gauge for the crypto market from 0 to 100, calculated by Alternative.me. It combines volatility, price momentum, trading volume, social media activity, Bitcoin dominance and search trends into one number. 0 to 24 means extreme fear, 75 to 100 extreme greed.
What can it signal?
The index is often read against the crowd: extreme fear has historically appeared near lows, extreme greed in overheated phases near highs. It is not a timing signal, though; extreme readings can last for weeks.
What is it connected with?
Refers mainly to Bitcoin and so to the whole crypto market (Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, Litecoin, NEO) as well as Bitcoin-related stocks such as Strategy (MSTR) or Robinhood. At EllTec Analysis it complements the wave count as a sentiment check.
Weekly Market Briefing · Macro outlook Europe
Europe: 3.8% inflation and rising yields ahead of the ECB decision
The automatic check is neutral (score minus 10), and EllTec Analysis agrees. Moderate core inflation of 2.5% and euro area growth of 1.2% support earnings, but higher rates and expensive gas weigh on valuations and industry. Energy producers, banks and insurers benefit, while chemicals, real estate and energy-intensive manufacturers suffer. Falling gas prices would improve the view, a new energy spike or a wider French yield spread would worsen it.
Read the full outlook in the Weekly Market BriefingKey charts
ECB deposit rate
2.50 %
as of Oct 29, 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: +0.50 pp
Change in period: −1.50 pp
The rate banks receive for deposits at the ECB, the euro area's effective policy rate.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The deposit rate of the European Central Bank (ECB). Banks earn this rate when they park money at the ECB. Today it is the euro area's key policy rate.
What can it signal?
A rising rate means tighter policy against inflation, a falling rate is meant to support the euro area economy. The gap to the US policy rate shows whether money earns more in euros or in dollars.
What is it connected with?
Important for European stocks (such as Zalando, Lenzing, Teleperformance), German Bunds, savings rates, mortgages and the EUR/USD exchange rate.
ECB balance sheet (total assets)
5.94 tn EUR
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: +0.6 % · 1 year: −4.2 %
Change in period: −15.5 %
The euro area's counterpart to the Fed balance sheet, in EUR trillion.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The total assets of the European Central Bank, in EUR trillion.
What can it signal?
As with the Fed, a growing balance sheet (bond purchases, loans to banks) means more liquidity in the euro area, a shrinking one less. The ECB has been reducing its balance sheet since 2022.
What is it connected with?
Linked to German Bunds, yield spreads of southern European countries, the euro and European stocks.
Euro area inflation (HICP, year over year)
3.80 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.60 pp · 1 year: +1.60 pp
Change in period: −0.50 pp
Harmonised consumer price inflation in the euro area; the ECB targets 2%.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The euro area inflation rate based on the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP), compared with the same month a year ago. The ECB targets 2%.
What can it signal?
Above 2% tends to mean high ECB rates, below it rate cuts. A wide gap to US inflation can move the EUR/USD exchange rate.
What is it connected with?
Determines ECB policy and therefore German Bunds, savings rates and European stocks. Energy prices (oil and gas) have a particularly strong effect on inflation in Europe.
Euro area core inflation (HICP excluding energy and food)
2.50 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.10 pp · 1 year: +0.10 pp
Change in period: −2.00 pp
Price increases in the euro area without the volatile energy and food prices (Eurostat). The ECB watches it to judge how persistent inflation is.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much consumer prices in the euro area rose compared with a year earlier, without the volatile prices of energy and food.
What can it signal?
Inflation close to the 2% target gives the central bank room to cut rates, a tailwind for equities and bonds. Inflation well above the target forces higher rates for longer. Core inflation moves slowly and shows how deeply price pressure has spread.
What is it connected with?
Connected with the ECB's interest rate decisions, wages, energy prices and the euro. High inflation weighs on consumer spending and on the valuation of growth stocks.
Euro area real GDP growth (year over year)
1.20 %
as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: +0.60 pp · 1 year: −0.20 pp
Change in period: +0.70 pp
Price-adjusted economic output of the euro area, quarterly (Eurostat).
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
Price-adjusted growth of the combined economic output of all euro countries compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
What can it signal?
Weak growth argues for lower ECB rates and often a weaker euro. Strong growth supports European stocks and corporate earnings.
What is it connected with?
Linked to the ECB rate, EUR/USD, European stocks and growth in Germany.
Germany real GDP growth (year over year)
1.00 %
as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: +0.30 pp · 1 year: +0.60 pp
Change in period: +1.80 pp
Price-adjusted economic output of Germany, quarterly (Eurostat). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
By how many percent Germany's economic output (GDP), adjusted for prices, is above or below the level a year earlier. Published quarterly.
What can it signal?
Values below zero mean the economy is shrinking. Germany depends heavily on industry and exports and therefore reacts early to weakness in China and world trade.
What is it connected with?
Linked to German exports, energy prices, the ECB rate, the euro and German industrial and car stocks.
France real GDP growth (year over year)
0.50 %
as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: −0.20 pp · 1 year: −0.30 pp
Change in period: −1.50 pp
Price-adjusted economic output of France, quarterly (Eurostat). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much the price-adjusted economic output of France grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
What can it signal?
Growth well above zero supports company profits and the stock market. Two weak quarters in a row or a fall below zero point to a recession. Because GDP is published with a delay, it confirms a trend rather than forecasting it.
What is it connected with?
Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for France.
Italy real GDP growth (year over year)
1.00 %
as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: +0.20 pp · 1 year: +0.50 pp
Change in period: +0.50 pp
Price-adjusted economic output of Italy, quarterly (Eurostat). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much the price-adjusted economic output of Italy grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
What can it signal?
Growth well above zero supports company profits and the stock market. Two weak quarters in a row or a fall below zero point to a recession. Because GDP is published with a delay, it confirms a trend rather than forecasting it.
What is it connected with?
Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for Italy.
Spain real GDP growth (year over year)
2.60 %
as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: ±0.00 pp
Change in period: +0.70 pp
Price-adjusted economic output of Spain, quarterly (Eurostat). Below zero means the economy is shrinking.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much the price-adjusted economic output of Spain grew compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
What can it signal?
Growth well above zero supports company profits and the stock market. Two weak quarters in a row or a fall below zero point to a recession. Because GDP is published with a delay, it confirms a trend rather than forecasting it.
What is it connected with?
Connected with employment, consumer spending, exports and corporate earnings. Strong growth often goes with rising yields and a firmer currency for Spain.
Germany inflation (HICP, year over year)
3.30 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.40 pp · 1 year: +1.00 pp
Change in period: −1.00 pp
Consumer prices in Germany by the EU-harmonised method (Eurostat). The ECB aims for 2 % in the euro area as a whole.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much consumer prices in Germany rose compared with the same month a year earlier, measured by the EU-harmonised method (HICP) so countries can be compared.
What can it signal?
Inflation well above 2 % erodes savings and makes the ECB lean towards higher rates. Below 2 % gives the ECB room to cut. As the largest economy, Germany carries a lot of weight in euro area inflation.
What is it connected with?
Linked to the ECB deposit rate, German Bund yields, wages, energy prices (gas, oil) and the euro. Important for German stocks and the DAX.
France inflation (HICP, year over year)
3.40 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.80 pp · 1 year: +2.30 pp
Change in period: −2.30 pp
Consumer prices in France, the euro area's second-largest economy (Eurostat).
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
France's inflation rate by the EU-harmonised method: how much prices rose compared with the same month a year earlier.
What can it signal?
Together with Germany and Italy, France drives most of euro area inflation. When countries diverge strongly, it gets harder for the ECB to set one rate that suits everyone.
What is it connected with?
Linked to euro area inflation, the ECB rate, French government bonds and French stocks such as Teleperformance.
Italy inflation (HICP, year over year)
4.20 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +1.00 pp · 1 year: +2.50 pp
Change in period: −1.40 pp
Consumer prices in Italy, the euro area's third-largest economy (Eurostat).
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
Italy's inflation rate by the EU-harmonised method compared with the same month a year earlier.
What can it signal?
Italy is sensitive to interest rates because of its high public debt. High inflation forces the ECB to raise rates, which increases Italy's interest burden.
What is it connected with?
Linked to the Italy vs. Germany yield spread, the ECB rate and European bank stocks.
Spain inflation (HICP, year over year)
5.00 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.40 pp · 1 year: +2.00 pp
Change in period: +1.70 pp
How much consumer prices in Spain rose within a year (Eurostat). The central bank aims for about 2%.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much consumer prices in Spain rose compared with a year earlier.
What can it signal?
Inflation close to the 2% target gives the central bank room to cut rates, a tailwind for equities and bonds. Inflation well above the target forces higher rates for longer. Energy prices can move this number a lot from month to month.
What is it connected with?
Connected with the ECB's interest rate decisions, wages, energy prices and the euro. High inflation weighs on consumer spending and on the valuation of growth stocks.
Germany unemployment rate (ILO definition)
4.00 %
as of August 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: +0.20 pp
Change in period: +0.90 pp
Share of the labour force without a job, by the internationally comparable ILO method (OECD). Lower than the national figure of the Federal Employment Agency.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The share of people in Germany who want to work but have no job, counted by the international ILO method, which is why it is lower than the well-known figure of the Federal Employment Agency.
What can it signal?
If the rate rises for several months, the economy is cooling and people spend more carefully. A tight labour market, on the other hand, pushes up wages and thereby inflation.
What is it connected with?
Linked to German growth, consumer spending, wages and inflation.
France unemployment rate (ILO definition)
8.20 %
as of August 2026 · 1 month: −0.10 pp · 1 year: +0.40 pp
Change in period: +0.70 pp
Share of the French labour force without a job (OECD, harmonised).
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
France's unemployment rate by the internationally comparable ILO method.
What can it signal?
France traditionally has higher unemployment than Germany. The direction matters more than the level: a rise points to a weaker economy.
What is it connected with?
Linked to euro area growth, French consumer spending and French stocks.
Italy unemployment rate (ILO definition)
6.20 %
as of August 2026 · 1 month: +0.20 pp · 1 year: +0.50 pp
Change in period: −1.40 pp
Share of the Italian labour force without a job (OECD, harmonised).
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
Italy's unemployment rate by the internationally comparable ILO method.
What can it signal?
Falling unemployment in Italy shows a robust economy in the south of the euro area and usually calms the bond market too.
What is it connected with?
Linked to the Italy vs. Germany yield spread, Italian banks and euro area growth.
Spain unemployment rate (monthly)
10.00 %
as of August 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: −0.50 pp
Change in period: −2.00 pp
Share of the labour force in Spain that is looking for work (OECD). A clear rise is an early sign of a weakening economy.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The share of people in the labour force of Spain who are looking for work, in percent.
What can it signal?
What matters most is the direction: a clear rise over a few months often comes early in a downturn, a steady fall shows a strong economy. A very low level can also mean wage pressure and therefore inflation.
What is it connected with?
Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in Spain.
Netherlands unemployment rate (monthly)
4.00 %
as of August 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: +0.10 pp
Change in period: +0.40 pp
Share of the labour force in the Netherlands that is looking for work (OECD). A clear rise is an early sign of a weakening economy.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The share of people in the labour force of the Netherlands who are looking for work, in percent.
What can it signal?
What matters most is the direction: a clear rise over a few months often comes early in a downturn, a steady fall shows a strong economy. A very low level can also mean wage pressure and therefore inflation.
What is it connected with?
Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in the Netherlands.
German 10-year Bund yield (monthly)
3.47 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.28 pp · 1 year: +0.78 pp
Change in period: +0.81 pp
The euro area's benchmark long-term rate, important for European stocks and mortgages.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The yield on 10-year German government bonds (Bunds), as a monthly average. Bunds are considered the safest asset in the euro area.
What can it signal?
Rising yields show higher inflation expectations or a tighter ECB, falling yields a flight to safety or weaker growth. The gap to the US yield influences the EUR/USD exchange rate.
What is it connected with?
The basis for mortgages in Germany, for valuing European stocks (such as Zalando, ThyssenKrupp, Lenzing) and for the yields of other euro countries such as Italy or France.
Spread Italy vs. Germany (10-year yields, monthly)
+0.80 pp
as of August 2026 · 1 month: −0.01 pp · 1 year: −0.06 pp
Change in period: −0.88 pp
How much more Italy pays than Germany to borrow for 10 years. The euro area's classic stress gauge.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How many percentage points more interest Italy pays on a 10-year government bond than Germany, the euro area's safest borrower.
What can it signal?
A widening spread signals worries about Italy's debt or the cohesion of the euro area (as in the euro crisis of 2011/2012). A narrowing spread signals confidence. If it jumps sharply, the ECB often steps in.
What is it connected with?
Linked to European bank stocks, the euro, Italian politics and the ECB.
Spread France vs. Germany (10-year yields, monthly)
+1.01 pp
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.16 pp · 1 year: +0.18 pp
Change in period: +0.43 pp
The extra yield on French government bonds over German Bunds; rises with political or budget worries in France.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The extra yield France pays on 10-year government bonds compared with Germany.
What can it signal?
For a long time the gap was very small. When it widens, investors worry about France's budget deficit or political situation. That can weigh on French banks and stocks.
What is it connected with?
Linked to French banks and stocks, the euro and the Italian spread.
Spread Spain vs. Germany (10-year yields, monthly)
+0.45 pp
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.00 pp · 1 year: −0.12 pp
Change in period: −0.61 pp
How much more Spain pays than Germany to borrow for 10 years. A widening spread signals stress in the euro area.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The difference between the 10-year government bond yields of Spain and Germany, in percentage points.
What can it signal?
A widening spread means investors demand more for lending to Spain than to Germany, a sign of stress about debt or politics. A narrowing spread shows confidence in the euro area and is usually a tailwind for European banks and equities.
What is it connected with?
Connected with the ECB's policy, government budgets, elections and the euro. In the euro crisis of 2011 and 2012, rising spreads went hand in hand with heavy losses on European stock markets.
Spread Greece vs. Germany (10-year yields, monthly)
+0.76 pp
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.08 pp · 1 year: +0.06 pp
Change in period: −0.66 pp
How much more Greece pays than Germany to borrow for 10 years. A widening spread signals stress in the euro area.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The difference between the 10-year government bond yields of Greece and Germany, in percentage points.
What can it signal?
A widening spread means investors demand more for lending to Greece than to Germany, a sign of stress about debt or politics. A narrowing spread shows confidence in the euro area and is usually a tailwind for European banks and equities.
What is it connected with?
Connected with the ECB's policy, government budgets, elections and the euro. In the euro crisis of 2011 and 2012, rising spreads went hand in hand with heavy losses on European stock markets.
EUR/USD exchange rate
1.1199
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: −1.7 % · 1 year: −3.6 %
Change in period: +5.2 %
US dollars per euro. Important for European investors holding US assets.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How many US dollars you get for one euro.
What can it signal?
When the rate rises, the euro strengthens and the dollar weakens. For euro area investors this means US stocks and Bitcoin lose value in euro terms even if they are flat in dollars. A falling rate works the other way.
What is it connected with?
Driven mainly by the interest-rate gap between the Fed and the ECB, the economy in both regions and risk sentiment. Important for European exporters and for the euro value of every US investment.
European natural gas (USD per MMBtu, monthly)
25.49 USD
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +21.9 % · 1 year: +131.7 %
Change in period: +123.1 %
Gas price in Europe; drives energy costs for European industry and households.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The natural gas price in Europe (TTF benchmark in the Netherlands), in US dollars per MMBtu, as a monthly average from the International Monetary Fund.
What can it signal?
Europe relies heavily on imported gas. High prices, as in 2022, hurt industry and households and drive euro area inflation. The gap to the US gas price shows European industry's cost disadvantage.
What is it connected with?
Linked to euro area inflation, the ECB, European industrial stocks (ThyssenKrupp, Lenzing, Corbion) and the US gas price (Henry Hub) through LNG exports.
UK 10-year gilt yield (monthly)
5.24 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.25 pp · 1 year: +0.55 pp
Change in period: +0.82 pp
The long-term interest rate in the United Kingdom (OECD).
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The yield on a 10-year British government bond (gilt), the long-term interest rate in the UK.
What can it signal?
Rising yields show higher inflation expectations or doubts about fiscal policy, as in the gilt crisis of autumn 2022. They make mortgages more expensive and weigh on British stocks.
What is it connected with?
Linked to the British pound (GBP/USD), the overnight rate, US yields and the UK housing market.
UK overnight interbank rate (monthly)
3.73 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: −0.00 pp · 1 year: −0.24 pp
Change in period: −1.45 pp
The overnight rate in the UK money market (OECD), which closely follows the Bank of England's policy rate.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The rate at which banks in the UK lend to each other overnight. It follows the Bank of England's policy rate very closely and therefore shows its course.
What can it signal?
When it rises, the Bank of England is tightening against inflation. When it falls, it is easing to support the economy.
What is it connected with?
Linked to the pound, UK yields, mortgages and the comparison with the Fed and the ECB.
UK real GDP growth (year over year)
1.20 %
as of Q2 2026 · 1 month: +0.30 pp · 1 year: −0.10 pp
Change in period: +0.70 pp
Price-adjusted economic output of the United Kingdom, quarterly (IMF).
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
Price-adjusted growth of the British economy compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
What can it signal?
The UK is a large services and finance economy. Weak growth argues for rate cuts by the Bank of England and often a weaker pound.
What is it connected with?
Linked to the pound, British stocks and yields and trade with the EU.
UK unemployment rate (ILO definition)
4.90 %
as of June 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: +0.20 pp
Change in period: +0.50 pp
Share of the British labour force without a job (OECD, harmonised).
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The UK unemployment rate by the internationally comparable ILO method.
What can it signal?
A rising rate shows a cooling economy and makes Bank of England rate cuts more likely.
What is it connected with?
Linked to UK growth, wages, inflation and the pound.
GBP/USD exchange rate
1.3375
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: +0.9 % · 1 year: +0.4 %
Change in period: +9.3 %
US dollars per British pound; relevant for UK stocks such as Wizz Air.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How many US dollars one British pound costs.
What can it signal?
The rate reflects the interest rate gap between the Bank of England and the Fed and the view on the UK economy and politics. A weak pound helps British exporters but makes imports more expensive.
What is it connected with?
Linked to UK stocks and the FTSE, such as Wizz Air, and to the euro, since the pound and the euro often move similarly against the dollar.
Swiss 10-year government bond yield (monthly)
0.59 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.12 pp · 1 year: +0.39 pp
Change in period: −0.50 pp
Switzerland's long-term rate, one of the lowest in the world; a gauge of safe-haven demand (OECD).
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The yield on a 10-year Swiss government bond. Switzerland is considered especially safe, so its rates are very low and were even negative for years.
What can it signal?
In crises investors buy Swiss bonds and francs and the yield falls. When it rises, there is less fear in the market or inflation is picking up in Switzerland too.
What is it connected with?
Linked to the Swiss franc (USD/CHF), gold as a safe haven and Swiss stocks.
USD/CHF exchange rate (francs per dollar)
0.8248
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: −0.0 % · 1 year: +3.7 %
Change in period: −7.5 %
The Swiss franc is a classic safe haven; a falling value means a stronger franc.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How many Swiss francs one US dollar costs.
What can it signal?
The franc is considered a safe haven. In crises money flows into Switzerland, the franc strengthens and the value falls. A rising value tends to show risk appetite or a strong dollar.
What is it connected with?
Linked to gold, the Japanese yen (also a safe haven), the financial stress index and Swiss companies such as Aryzta.
Sweden 10-year government bond yield (monthly)
3.19 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.17 pp · 1 year: +0.63 pp
Change in period: +0.30 pp
The long-term interest rate of Sweden (OECD). Rising yields make borrowing more expensive and compete with equities for investors' money.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The yield investors earn per year on a 10-year government bond of Sweden, as a monthly average. It is the country's long-term interest rate.
What can it signal?
Rising yields mean investors expect more inflation or demand more compensation for risk, which makes loans more expensive and weighs on equity valuations. Falling yields usually point to lower inflation, expected rate cuts or a flight to safety.
What is it connected with?
Connected with the central bank's policy rate, inflation, government debt and the currency. For the stock market of Sweden, rising long-term rates are a headwind, especially for growth stocks, real estate and utilities, while banks often benefit.
USD/SEK (Swedish kronor per US dollar)
9.9237
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: +0.2 % · 1 year: +5.6 %
Change in period: −9.7 %
The currency of Sweden against the dollar. Rising = weaker local currency.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The exchange rate USD/SEK: how many units of the local currency one US dollar costs.
What can it signal?
A rising line means a weaker currency for Sweden. A weak currency helps exporters, but makes imports more expensive and can drive money out of the country. A sharp, fast depreciation is often a warning sign for the local stock and bond market.
What is it connected with?
Connected with interest rate differences to the US, the US dollar overall, commodity prices and the risk appetite of global investors. For investors from abroad, the currency adds to or subtracts from the return of local shares.
USD/NOK (Norwegian kroner per US dollar)
9.3227
as of Oct 23, 2026 · 1 month: −1.8 % · 1 year: −6.6 %
Change in period: −15.8 %
The currency of Norway against the dollar. Rising = weaker local currency.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The exchange rate USD/NOK: how many units of the local currency one US dollar costs.
What can it signal?
A rising line means a weaker currency for Norway. A weak currency helps exporters, but makes imports more expensive and can drive money out of the country. A sharp, fast depreciation is often a warning sign for the local stock and bond market.
What is it connected with?
Connected with interest rate differences to the US, the US dollar overall, commodity prices and the risk appetite of global investors. For investors from abroad, the currency adds to or subtracts from the return of local shares.
Poland 10-year government bond yield (monthly)
6.23 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.42 pp · 1 year: +0.76 pp
Change in period: +0.55 pp
The long-term interest rate of Poland (OECD). Rising yields make borrowing more expensive and compete with equities for investors' money.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The yield investors earn per year on a 10-year government bond of Poland, as a monthly average. It is the country's long-term interest rate.
What can it signal?
Rising yields mean investors expect more inflation or demand more compensation for risk, which makes loans more expensive and weighs on equity valuations. Falling yields usually point to lower inflation, expected rate cuts or a flight to safety.
What is it connected with?
Connected with the central bank's policy rate, inflation, government debt and the currency. For the stock market of Poland, rising long-term rates are a headwind, especially for growth stocks, real estate and utilities, while banks often benefit.
Poland inflation (HICP, year over year)
4.00 %
as of September 2026 · 1 month: +0.50 pp · 1 year: +1.10 pp
Change in period: −3.70 pp
How much consumer prices in Poland rose within a year (Eurostat). The central bank aims for about 2%.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
How much consumer prices in Poland rose compared with a year earlier.
What can it signal?
Inflation close to the 2% target gives the central bank room to cut rates, a tailwind for equities and bonds. Inflation well above the target forces higher rates for longer. Energy prices can move this number a lot from month to month.
What is it connected with?
Connected with the ECB's interest rate decisions, wages, energy prices and the euro. High inflation weighs on consumer spending and on the valuation of growth stocks.
Poland unemployment rate (monthly)
3.40 %
as of August 2026 · 1 month: ±0.00 pp · 1 year: +0.20 pp
Change in period: +0.60 pp
Share of the labour force in Poland that is looking for work (OECD). A clear rise is an early sign of a weakening economy.
ExplanationHide explanation
What does the chart show?
The share of people in the labour force of Poland who are looking for work, in percent.
What can it signal?
What matters most is the direction: a clear rise over a few months often comes early in a downturn, a steady fall shows a strong economy. A very low level can also mean wage pressure and therefore inflation.
What is it connected with?
Connected with consumer spending, wages, inflation and the central bank's decisions. Rising unemployment usually weighs on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors in Poland.
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (data from the Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis, Chicago, Cleveland, Atlanta, Dallas and Kansas City, U.S. Treasury, BLS, BEA, Census Bureau, Department of Labor, FHFA, EIA, ECB, Eurostat, OECD, IMF, Bank of Japan and Freddie Mac). Rates of change are calculated year over year from the underlying indices; net liquidity is the Fed balance sheet minus the Treasury General Account and reverse repos. Last refreshed: Oct 30, 2026. For information only, not investment advice.